You could calculate the BTUs needed, but it won't be easy. There are HVAC standards for this (I think it is called Manual J) that will take into account insulation, windows/doors (and how good they are), climate, sun, etc. Mine uses a tankless water heater that is modulating and rated for 11,000-190,000 BTUs. I can't really tell how much heat it is putting out other than when it first starts up it is much louder than what it settles down to after 15-20 sec. My guess based on that is on the low side of that range, but I really had no idea how much heat i would need and wanted to be safe. I'd say it was way overkill.
Manual J is correct. For cooling it's pretty involved, but for heating you an do a reasonable estimate on the back of an envelope.
There are only two heat losses you have to worry about -- through surfaces, and air leakage. Heat conducted through a surface is easy to estimate, the R-value that is used to rate insulation was created to make the math easy, one square foot of surface with an R-value of one will lose one BTU/hour with a temperature difference of one degree F. More generally, the heat loss through a surface, in BTU/hour, is the area in square feet times the temperature difference between the two sides divided by the R-value.
The first step is to figure out how cold it gets where you are. At this site:
https://www.energystar.gov/ia/partn... Temperature Reference Guide - 2015-06-24.pdf
You can get county-level climate information. The "99% Heating Temperature" is what you use for system design. Once you have that you add up the area of all the surfaces in the building -- walls, ceiling, floor, doors and windows -- and calculate the heat loss for each one at the design temperature.
Here's a simple example:
Imagine a simple building, 1000 square feet, 25x40. Walls are 10' high, flat ceiling. It has 100 square feet of windows and 100 square feet of doors. Walls are insulated to R20, ceiling to R40, doors are R5 and windows are R3. Floor is concrete slab with 2" of foam, R8 total. Let's assume it's where I am, Newport County, where the design temperature is 9F. And I want to keep it at 70F. So the difference between inside and outside is 61F.
I have two walls that are 25x10, 250 SF each, 500 SF. I have two walls that are 40x10, 800SF. That's 1300 SF, take away 100SF of doors and 100SF of windows that's 1100 SF at R20. Total heat loss through walls is 1100*61/20=3355 BTU/hr.
Ceiling is 1000 SF at R40, heat loss is 1000*61/40= 1525 BTU/hr.
Doors are 100 SF at R5, heat loss is 100*61/5=1220 BTU/hr.
Windows re 100 SF at R3, heat loss is 100*61/3= 2033 BTU/hr.
With a slab floor the underside isn't going to be at outside temperature, more likely it will be near your year-round average temperature. A quick and dirty approximation is to average your heating design temperature and cooling design temperature. For me that's 85F, which gives a soil temperature of 47F, or 23F below interior. The floor is 1000 SF at R8, so that gives a loss of 1000*23/8= 2875 BTU/hr.
Add them all up and you get 11,008 BTU/hr.
For air leakage most of the time you'll do an educated guess. In new construction done to the latest codes you actually measure the building, but that's unlikely here. Let's say this building is pretty leaky, the air turns over every two hours. It has a volume of 10,000 cubic feet, so that's 5,000 cubic feet per hour or 83 CFM. Putting that into my calculator I get 5500 BTU/hr for the air leakage at 9F.
That gives a grand total of 16,500 BTU/hr.
I can help you do these calculations for your building. Without doing them, it's exceedingly unlikely that you'll end up with a system that works the way you want it to.