Hypothetical Doomsday Scenario

[Mace Canute]

Here's a nice read on the subject of EMP. FM 3-3-1 Appendix C

 

[creekbend]

And if we get another Carrington event like happened in 1859, you can bend over and kiss your *** goodby, because it is TEOTWAWKI.

James K0UA

Solar storm of 1859 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[MNBobcat]

LoL. No, no it wouldn't.

A SCUD-B will barely get to 100 miles altitude if fired straight up. There is no way, using a SCUD-B, to get to 300 miles altitude. Understand that getting from 100 miles to 300 miles altitude requires a lot more than 3 times the fuel -- it's more like 30 times the fuel. There are only 4 or 5 launch platforms capable of >250 miles altitude, and none of them are inexpensive do-it-yourself types even for rouge governments with modest R&D budgets.

In general, a ballistic missile's maximum possible altitude if fired straight up is approximately one half it's specified design range. This is physics, basic energy equations.

There are SCUD-derivatives (e.g., the "Al Hussein") which have greater range than the SCUD-B, but they also have far less payload (again, as an example, the "Al Hussein" can carry just over 1K lbs of warhead).

Wrooster

I said a scud launcher I didn't say launching a scud missile. The launcher and the missile are two different things. I'm sorry if I wasn't more clear.

 

[wrooster]

I said a scud launcher I didn't say launching a scud missile. The launcher and the missile are two different things. I'm sorry if I wasn't more clear.

Ok fair enough. I'll clarify as well: nothing launched from a SCUD launcher is achieving 300 miles altitude.

Wrooster

 

[MNBobcat]

Ok fair enough. I'll clarify as well: nothing launched from a SCUD launcher is achieving 300 miles altitude.

Wrooster

The experts on EMPs (the advisers to the military) have said that a scud launcher could be retrofit to do the job. But their point was mainly that its the nuke that is hard to come up with. The deployment mechanism can be crude.

 

[wrooster]

The experts on EMPs (the advisers to the military)

Who?

have said that a scud launcher could be retrofit to do the job.

I don't know any other way to say this but as follows: a SCUD launch vehicle is designed to carry and launch a relatively lightweight 37 foot long ballistic missile. I am telling you that there is no possible way to get a 37 foot long ballistic missile w/nuclear payload to a LEO (low earth orbit) altitude of 300 miles -- again, it's just physics. The ISS (International Space Station) is in LEO 250 miles up -- and you need another 50 miles on top of that to get to your target altitude of 300 miles. Research what is needed to bring 1KG of payload to the ISS, that will give you a good idea of what's involved here.

Here is a list of what are known as "Small Lift/Launch Systems", which is basically a compendium of rocket platforms designed to bring between 1lb and 10Klbs to LEO altitude.
Comparison of orbital launch systems - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

You'll note that the SMALLEST of the lot is about 100' in length, and the WEIGHT of the fuel alone makes such a launch/lift platform IMPOSSIBLE to have on a SCUD mobile erector/launcher platform. Of course over the years there have been some "one-off" designs that have had a smaller form-factor -- the only problem is that after ignition very often these types of missiles don't make it any farther than the launch facility parking lot -- and the resulting fireworks are pretty impressive when you have 30 tons of hydrazine and liquid oxygen combined with a source of heat...

But their point was mainly that its the nuke that is hard to come up with. The deployment mechanism can be crude.

"Crude" and ">100 miles altitude" are not compatible aspects -- unless you want tiny pieces of your only nuclear device scattered all over the launch site.

Wrooster

 

[MNBobcat]

Who?


Wrooster

Watch This

 

[creekbend]

Watch This

Thanks for posting. When I attempted to view the video, the caption stated that the video was presently unavailable. Hopefully, later.

 

[k0ua]

Watch This

I watched a lot of the video... It was enlightening, but disturbing at the same time to know we are doing so little about EMP. I mentioned a Carrington event to an electric company executive a few years ago, and he had never heard of such a thing.

James K0UA

 

[MNBobcat]

Thanks for posting. When I attempted to view the video, the caption stated that the video was presently unavailable. Hopefully, later.

It did that to me the first time too (I watched it about a year ago but checked it yesterday when I went to look for the link) but worked when I reloaded the page.

 

[MNBobcat]

I watched a lot of the video... It was enlightening, but disturbing at the same time to know we are doing so little about EMP. I mentioned a Carrington event to an electric company executive a few years ago, and he had never heard of such a thing.

James K0UA

The same happened with two fellows I spoke to from our electric company.

The thing about it is, I first learned of Coronal Mass Ejections about 1 to 1 1/2 years ago when Nasa put out a press release saying that people should be prepared and that with the solar maximum approaching between 2012 - 2013 that there was a possibility a large CME could happen. The truth is though they can happen any time. You could be driving to work and....boom...the lights go out for a couple of years.

NASA also put out a video addressing their employees to be prepared. It makes you wonder if they don't have some serious concerns.

Its thought that a large CME hits us about every 100 years or so on average. We're way overdue for one.

I'm not one of these fanatical people who think that I need to buy gas masks and prepare for every little thing that could happen. But our ancestors way of life was to put food away in times of plenty to have it when times are lean. Today...that could mean losing your job or even a food shortage from a drought like we had this year. I decided not to live my life with my head in the sand and to trust everything to chance. I started canning stuff from our garden and putting away some extra food in the pantry. I'm going to pick up an emergency radio. A few things like that. But only things I would use anyway. I just look at it as common sense. We have a power outage about 2 - 3 times a year. During one storm we were in the basement in the dark waiting out the storm and I realized I didn't even have a weather radio to know if the storm was getting better or worse. Even when it subsided some...because I had no radio.... I didn't know if it was safe to go to bed or if we needed to stay alert to the possibility we may need to go back down to the basement. I felt pretty stupid. I mean...you think about all the crap you've bought in your life that you don't even use any more and then something as important as something that could save you and your families life you don't buy?

Anyway...that's sort of my outlook on things.

 

[John47]

From what I understand, a meeting was held this year between the government and electricity utilities to address this serious problem.
NASA has two aging satellites about half way between here and the sun to monitor solar activity.
Now this is just a guess, but I doubt it's too far off the mark, when NASA registers a huge CME, they would notify every elec utility, who would in turn probably notify their customers that they will be shutting power down for a few hours nationally and isolating the grid from their equipment until the dangers over.
Now the only part missing is the public are not educated to the dangers of a large CME, we need preparation and education so as everyone understands that they need a minimum food supply and enough drinking water to get over the emergency, which could last for a few days to a couple of weeks.
The media need to be involved with this, not to panic, but to prepare for the event. Schools should also be teaching this information too, a nation prepared for a large CME could get through it without too much civil disturbance.

 

[RoyJackson]

The media need to be involved with this, not to panic, but to prepare for the event. Schools should also be teaching this information too, a nation prepared for a large CME could get through it without too much civil disturbance.

Unfortunately, with the news clowns we have now, they'd end up reporting it as an "End of the World" event.

 

[k0ua]

From what I understand, a meeting was held this year between the government and electricity utilities to address this serious problem.
NASA has two aging satellites about half way between here and the sun to monitor solar activity.
Now this is just a guess, but I doubt it's too far off the mark, when NASA registers a huge CME, they would notify every elec utility, who would in turn probably notify their customers that they will be shutting power down for a few hours nationally and isolating the grid from their equipment until the dangers over.
Now the only part missing is the public are not educated to the dangers of a large CME, we need preparation and education so as everyone understands that they need a minimum food supply and enough drinking water to get over the emergency, which could last for a few days to a couple of weeks.
The media need to be involved with this, not to panic, but to prepare for the event. Schools should also be teaching this information too, a nation prepared for a large CME could get through it without too much civil disturbance.

There is a satellite on the other side of the sun also so we can observe what is happening out of our direct view. Here is a good site to keep up with all that is happening with our star.
There was a CME a couple of days ago, but it will not be directed towards the earth. You can see it in the little movie in the bottom right of this page.
while this is a Ham Radio oriented site, anyone that likes science would enjoy looking at the photo's and movie clips.

SOLARHAM.com / Solar Cycle 24 / Spaceweather / Amateur Radio VHF Aurora Website

James K0UA

 

[John47]

Unfortunately, with the news clowns we have now, they'd end up reporting it as an "End of the World" event.

I tend to agree Roy, but it could end as "an end of the world" scenario if it's not treated with some urgency with correct education of the masses though.
Not being a newspaper or TV news reader or viewer, I don't know if anything has been printed or televised on the subject.

 

[John47]

Jim, I don't know if it's been launched yet, but NASA had a more up todate satellite to replace the two between the sun and earth this year.

 

[Soundguy]

Unfortunately, with the news clowns we have now, they'd end up reporting it as an "End of the World" event.

i agree.

heck.. it rains in florida and they have a tropical storm weather center reporter running around!

 

[lostcause]

Hate to resurrect a dead thread, but I came across it in a totally unrelated search, and I was compelled to read it... My biggest thoughts on this matter were brought about by recent real world events, coupled with the TV show Revolution:

What stops us from getting Fukushima'd 500 times over if the power were to instantly go out? Granted, I'm sure there are multiple redundant generator, battery, and cooling pump backups in place, but If you take the Revolution TV approach, where all electricity - including batteries - fails to work, are we all screwed? Are any of you out there Homer Simpson types that know if reactors can be brought down without any electricity at all?

Aside from the end of the world worries, I'm sure there are many who think a "reboot" would be great, but unless you were so far off-grid that you couldn't be found for your entire life, you'd probably meet your before you wanted, because there's always someone out there that would want what you have and would be capable of taking it. Without civilization, not everyone will remain civilized.

 

[MNBobcat]

What stops us from getting Fukushima'd 500 times over if the power were to instantly go out? Granted, I'm sure there are multiple redundant generator, battery, and cooling pump backups in place, but If you take the Revolution TV approach, where all electricity - including batteries - fails to work, are we all screwed? Are any of you out there Homer Simpson types that know if reactors can be brought down without any electricity at all?

There would never be a situation where electricity won't work. In the TV show Revolution its more like the laws of physics are out-of-whack. The reality is that if the grid went down and you're a smart person and built something like a paddle wheel that would turn a generator -- you would have electricity. Its not that electricity couldn't be produced.

The issue is if we were hit by a massive EMP (electro-magnetic pulse) either from the sun or from a nuke, that there is a high probability it would destroy the transformer stations you see scattered all around the county. Its these remote stations that are at risk from an EMP. Those transformers are built to order and built overseas. So if the grid goes down they say it could be years before its back up. It would certainly be back up in some places before others. It mainly depends on who gets those transformers first.

 

[Soundguy]

here's my take.

as mentioned. a person can build a genny from scratch with wire.. and or wire and magnets.

older diesel tractors need no power. just roll em down a hill and pop the clutch.. I've pull started older diesels with no battery MANY MANY times. they just need fuel and air...

now if you have a water pump and a diesel tractor.. you can make coolant flow.

as for shutting down a reactor.

assuming auto shutdown withcotrol rods do not occur,

I'd think they can be scrammed with boron with no electric. IE.. manualy valved in...

I have a couple buddies that are nuke techs of various sorts. cleanup and inspection..e tc..

here's some light reading

Scram - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia