Hypothetical Doomsday Scenario

[John47]

Over 25 years back we were discussing this during a lunchbreak, one of my co workers was an Ex Royal Australian Navy electronics specialist, missiles etc.
He related to us of when he was on training manoeuvrings with the US Navy in the Pacific. It was just a theory back then EMP's and what they could do.
A nuclear device, small by todays standards was detonated high in the atmosphere, and the two navy's were to observe and record anything unusual.
He said yeah, unusual was the word, "we were dead in the water" Anything with solid state circuitry was fried big time, all old tube gear with no solid state devices still worked perfectly, same with US Navy.
Can't recall if he gave the year so cannot say if it was the time a good part of the big island of Hawaii lost all power. I think his test was prior to that incident.
Regarding solar/ earth geomagnetic storms, there has been a couple of X5 class flares that have caused damage during the last solar cycle, one cause serious damage to part of the Canadian grid.
NASA has predicted we are due for a large X5 class plus flare anytime now.
From what I'm led to believe, if our two deep space solar watch satellites send warnings of such a storm, all power companies will be told to shut the grid down and shut power generating plants down for safety.
Problem is, telecommunications will be taken out, no cell phones, no telephones, television stations and radio stations equipment fried, plus virtually every vehicle, from cars to big rigs that have masses of electronics on board will die on the roads..
So we will be in rather a mess, or as my old man used to say, up the creek without a paddle.

It is widely suspected that the US, Russia and China also have what are called EMP weapons..No not nuclear devices, but high power electronic units they have installed in aircraft or missiles.
The US military were suspected of testing such devices years back, if we have them, both the Russians and Chinese could well have them.

 

[wrooster]

Problem is, telecommunications will be taken out, no cell phones, no telephones, television stations and radio stations equipment fried, plus virtually every vehicle, from cars to big rigs that have masses of electronics on board will die on the roads.

No.

Wrooster <-- MSEE and telecom equipment designer

 

[Soundguy]

break out the farady cage and hardened systems..

 

[Gator6x4]

Over 25 years back we were discussing this during a lunchbreak, one of my co workers was an Ex Royal Australian Navy electronics specialist, missiles etc.
He related to us of when he was on training manoeuvrings with the US Navy in the Pacific. It was just a theory back then EMP's and what they could do.
A nuclear device, small by todays standards was detonated high in the atmosphere, and the two navy's were to observe and record anything unusual.
He said yeah, unusual was the word, "we were dead in the water" Anything with solid state circuitry was fried big time, all old tube gear with no solid state devices still worked perfectly, same with US Navy.
Can't recall if he gave the year so cannot say if it was the time a good part of the big island of Hawaii lost all power. I think his test was prior to that incident.
Regarding solar/ earth geomagnetic storms, there has been a couple of X5 class flares that have caused damage during the last solar cycle, one cause serious damage to part of the Canadian grid.
NASA has predicted we are due for a large X5 class plus flare anytime now.
From what I'm led to believe, if our two deep space solar watch satellites send warnings of such a storm, all power companies will be told to shut the grid down and shut power generating plants down for safety.
Problem is, telecommunications will be taken out, no cell phones, no telephones, television stations and radio stations equipment fried, plus virtually every vehicle, from cars to big rigs that have masses of electronics on board will die on the roads..
So we will be in rather a mess, or as my old man used to say, up the creek without a paddle.

It is widely suspected that the US, Russia and China also have what are called EMP weapons..No not nuclear devices, but high power electronic units they have installed in aircraft or missiles.
The US military were suspected of testing such devices years back, if we have them, both the Russians and Chinese could well have them.

Oh yes, the night the US turned off the lights and telephones in Hawaii.

On July 9, 1962, at 09:00:09 Coordinated Universal Time (which was July 8, Honolulu time, at nine seconds after 11 p.m.), the Starfish Prime test was successfully detonated at an altitude of 400 kilometers (250 mi). The coordinates of the detonation were 16 degrees, 28 minutes North latitude, 169 degrees, 38 minutes West longitude. The actual weapon yield was very close to the design yield, which has been described by various sources at different values in the range of 1.4 to 1.45 megatons (6.0 PJ).

The Thor missile carrying the Starfish Prime warhead reached a maximum height of about 1100 km (just over 680 miles), and the warhead was detonated on its downward trajectory when it had fallen to the programmed altitude of 400 kilometers (250 mi). The nuclear warhead detonated at 13 minutes and 41 seconds after liftoff of the Thor missile from Johnston Island.

Starfish Prime caused an electromagnetic (EMP) which was far larger than expected, so much larger that it drove much of the instrumentation off scale, causing great difficulty in getting accurate measurements. The Starfish Prime electromagnetic pulse also made those effects known to the public by causing electrical damage in Hawaii, about 1,445 kilometres (898 mi) away from the detonation point, knocking out about 300 streetlights, setting off numerous burglar alarms and damaging a telephone company microwave link. The EMP damage to the microwave link shut down telephone calls from Kauai to the other Hawaiian Islands.

Pages 19–21 of "A 'Quick Look' at the Technical Results of Starfish Prime", August 1962 states:

"At Kwajalein, 1,400 [nautical] miles [2,600 km; 1,600 mi] to the west, a dense overcast extended the length of the eastern horizon to a height of 5 or 8 degrees. At 0900 GMT a brilliant white flash burned through the clouds rapidly changing to an expanding green ball of irradiance extending into the clear sky above the overcast. From its surface extruded great white fingers, resembling cirro-stratus clouds, which rose to 40 degrees above the horizon in sweeping arcs turning downward toward the poles and disappearing in seconds to be replaced by spectacular concentric cirrus like rings moving out from the blast at tremendous initial velocity, finally stopping when the outermost ring was 50 degrees overhead. They did not disappear but persisted in a state of frozen stillness. All this occurred, I would judge, within 45 seconds. As the greenish light turned to purple and began to fade at the point of burst, a bright red glow began to develop on the horizon at a direction 50 degrees north of east and simultaneously 50 degrees south of east expanding inward and upward until the whole eastern sky was a dull burning red semicircle 100 degrees north to south and halfway to the zenith obliterating some of the lesser stars. This condition, interspersed with tremendous white rainbows, persisted no less than seven minutes."

"At zero time at Johnston, a white flash occurred, but as soon as one could remove his goggles, no intense light was present. A second after shot time a mottled red disc was observed directly overhead and covered the sky down to about 45 degrees from the zenith. Generally, the red mottled region was more intense on the eastern portions. Along the magnetic north-south line through the burst, a white-yellow streak extended and grew to the north from near zenith. The width of the white streaked region grew from a few degrees at a few seconds to about 5-10 degrees in 30 seconds. Growth of the auroral region to the north was by addition of new lines developing from west to east. The white-yellow auroral streamers receded upward from the horizon to the north and grew to the south and at about 2 minutes the white-yellow bands were still about 10 degrees wide and extended mainly from near zenith to the south. By about two minutes, the red disc region had completed disappearance in the west and was rapidly fading on the eastern portion of the overhead disc. At 400 seconds essentially all major visible phenomena had disappeared except for possibly some faint red glow along the north-south line and on the horizon to the north. No sounds were heard at Johnston Island that could be definitely attributed to the detonation."

 

[k0ua]

And you have to remember in 1962, there were not a whole lot of solid state devices in general use by the public.. Most system were using vacuum tubes.. Of course there would have been perhaps some solid state gear in use by the public, but not a lot. I think the damage to the HI islands would be of a much greater magnitude if this same experiment were carried out today.

James K0UA

 

[BobRip]

And you have to remember in 1962, there were not a whole lot of solid state devices in general use by the public.. Most system were using vacuum tubes.. Of course there would have been perhaps some solid state gear in use by the public, but not a lot. I think the damage to the HI islands would be of a much greater magnitude if this same experiment were carried out today.

James K0UA

I wonder how my pacemaker would do. I think today many people would die. However solid state devices today are much better protected against static than they use to be. Is it enough? I don't know. My pacemaker will allow me to weld, and that produces a lot of pulses.

 

[k0ua]

I wonder how my pacemaker would do. I think today many people would die. However solid state devices today are much better protected against static than they use to be. Is it enough? I don't know. My pacemaker will allow me to weld, and that produces a lot of pulses.

My best "guess" (easy for me to guess about your life huh.) is that you would be OK. as you would have a pretty small antenna inside of you to develop the voltage potential. Other systems with larger antennas (like anything hooked to a power line or telephone line or metallic structure) would not fare so well, as the potential voltages would likely be higher to penetrate the PN junctions of semiconductors. If you knew it was going to happen, get in a Faraday cage.. (yeah I don't have one either) or perhaps get underground and away from any metallic conductors that perhaps could inductively couple to you. Of course we are not likely to have much if any warning from an enemy.

James K0UA

 

[BobRip]

My best "guess" (easy for me to guess about your life huh.) is that you would be OK. as you would have a pretty small antenna inside of you to develop the voltage potential. Other systems with larger antennas (like anything hooked to a power line or telephone line or metallic structure) would not fare so well, as the potential voltages would likely be higher to penetrate the PN junctions of semiconductors. If you knew it was going to happen, get in a Faraday cage.. (yeah I don't have one either) or perhaps get underground and away from any metallic conductors that perhaps could inductively couple to you. Of course we are not likely to have much if any warning from an enemy.

James K0UA

So if you had a generator sitting there and not connected to anything it might be alright.

 

[k0ua]

So if you had a generator sitting there and not connected to anything it might be alright.

My answer is I don't know..They talk about fields of up to 50,000 volts per meter. A generator is pretty big, and could have some pretty large potentials on it.. I am thinking this could be a problem.. You need Faraday shielding to protect it.

James K0UA

 

[mjarrels]

Never in a EA-6B Squadron, but a single EA-6B can do remarkable things. Classified, can't go into details.

mark

 

[Gator6x4]

Never in a EA-6B Squadron, but a single EA-6B can do remarkable things. Classified, can't go into details.

mark

I like this one. EA-18G Growler

 

[mjarrels]

Yep, that is the replacement. My understanding is it is not a tail hook airplane, ie, no aircraft carrier capability. Lots of PERDIEM for squadron folks traveling arround the world. Folks living near OLF Coupeville should be happy, no more FCLP's

mark

 

[wrooster]

Never in a EA-6B Squadron, but a single EA-6B can do remarkable things. Classified, can't go into details.
mark

An EA-6B is not going to make a dent in terms of damaging modern electronics. The potential RF output power at the horn is about 1/3rd the APU output power -- it's just physics. The APU output power is public knowledge. Not only is the directionality poor in general due to yaw/pitch dispersion but lighting up a point target at range is transient rather than theatre-wide.

Wrooster

 

[riptides]

Yep, that is the replacement. My understanding is it is not a tail hook airplane, ie, no aircraft carrier capability. Lots of PERDIEM for squadron folks traveling arround the world. Folks living near OLF Coupeville should be happy, no more FCLP's

mark

I thought they went carrier ready last year some time. The image shown also has a tailhook.

 

[Gator6x4]

Yep, that is the replacement. My understanding is it is not a tail hook airplane, ie, no aircraft carrier capability. Lots of PERDIEM for squadron folks traveling arround the world. Folks living near OLF Coupeville should be happy, no more FCLP's

mark

Airborne Electronic Attack Squadron (VAQ) 130, the Zappers, landed its squadron’s first operational EA-18G Growler on the aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman (CVN 75), July 18.

The Growler, a variant of the F/A-18F Super Hornet, replaced the EA-6B Prowler as the primary electronic warfare strike aircraft for Carrier Air Wing (CVW) 3.

 

[MNBobcat]

I don't have time to read this whole thread but the long and short of it is one dirty (small explosion, large EMP) nuclear weapon detinated 300 miles above the center of the United States would create an EMP large enough to take out the grid on the entire continent.

If you wanted to bring the United States to its knees the above is the only way to do it. Nobody can beat us in a head to head war. But it doesn't take much of a launch device (a scud launcher would do it) to launch the nuke.

The EMP affects devices with long wires...such as power lines feeding into a transformer.

NASA went on record about a year ago saying that we are due for a large coronal mass ejection (CME) to hit the earth. They happen about every 100 years or so. One of those aimed right at us would take out the grid too.

 

[wrooster]

nuclear weapon detinated 300 miles ... But it doesn't take much of a launch device (a scud launcher would do it) to launch the nuke.

LoL. No, no it wouldn't.

A SCUD-B will barely get to 100 miles altitude if fired straight up. There is no way, using a SCUD-B, to get to 300 miles altitude. Understand that getting from 100 miles to 300 miles altitude requires a lot more than 3 times the fuel -- it's more like 30 times the fuel. There are only 4 or 5 launch platforms capable of >250 miles altitude, and none of them are inexpensive do-it-yourself types even for rouge governments with modest R&D budgets.

In general, a ballistic missile's maximum possible altitude if fired straight up is approximately one half it's specified design range. This is physics, basic energy equations.

There are SCUD-derivatives (e.g., the "Al Hussein") which have greater range than the SCUD-B, but they also have far less payload (again, as an example, the "Al Hussein" can carry just over 1K lbs of warhead).

Wrooster

 

[lockhaven]

wrooster you seem to have actual knowledge of this. Plain and simple could a massive sun burst destroy the electrical systems we have? I read in National Geographic that it happened during the telegraph period and it fried all the batteries that ran the telegraph. Could you explain this in words that an old mold designer can understand?

 

[wrooster]

wrooster you seem to have actual knowledge of this. Plain and simple could a massive sun burst destroy the electrical systems we have? I read in National Geographic that it happened during the telegraph period and it fried all the batteries that ran the telegraph. Could you explain this in words that an old mold designer can understand?

I love mold design! I worked on a project which produced about 2 million parts a year -- we had our own (large) molding shop and did repair on premises but the molds themselves were sourced from vendors in the USA, Portugal, and Singapore. Class A/SP101 molds, a lot of thin wall, typically 6 to 12 cavities, a couple of cams/pulls, EDM'd out of P20 and H10.

Anyway, back to everyone's favorite topic.

There is no easy answer to whether or not a given apparatus will be affected by an NEMP event. There are far too many variables to take into consideration. The range to the detonation, the altitude, the impact of the Compton effect, the angle of wave incidence, the rise time/spectral content of the pulse, the duration, the effective capture area, the protection incorporated in the device, the sensitivity of the circuit, the definition of "failure", etc, all come into play -- and I have left out lots of others. Anyone who says "Item X will fail if EMP happens" is not observing these and other factors and is simply, well, oversimplifying. That said, the electrical power grid is certainly a risk -- long wires lead to a lot of field capture. Modern telecom networks are much, much less of a risk, and in fact that risk is diminishing further every year -- for the simple reason that more and more network (voice and broadband) traffic is carried on fiber and not metallic cable. Compared to how things were done even 20 years ago (when metallic T1 and T3 carrier circuits connected central offices), there is almost no metallic connectivity between central offices today. Even on the subscriber side you see metallic POTS diminishing as more and more homeowners either have fiber to the house (in my case, I have VZ FIOS fiber) and/or use a "derived POTS" from an internet connection.

I am sorry to say that there is no definitive answer to your question. EMP/CME situations which appear "safe" will cause problems in some systems, and not others. EMP/CME situations which you might think would cause electronic Armageddon, don't. Even simulation and testing of apparatus in GTEM cells and anechoic rooms, and subsequent hardening of the design, is not going to "prove" that the end product is immune to all types of EM disturbances.

Wrooster

 

[k0ua]

And if we get another Carrington event like happened in 1859, you can bend over and kiss your *** goodby, because it is TEOTWAWKI.

James K0UA