Greenhouse effect ???

CT_Tree_Guy · Feb 4, 2006

Mike -

When you say that "you and I will have to agree to disagree", I'm not sure how to take that. Frankly, I would very much like to have you agree with me, and the majority of the scientific community, at least on the interaction between man-made chamicals and the ozone layer. Plus, I never did "cotton" much to being told what I have to do, even by a moderator.

If that means that I'm not free to further express my opinions on this subject, please let me know straight out if that's what you mean.

Until you tell me I can't say what I want to say, and feel is important to be said in the best interest of the future prospects for the human race, I'd like to comment on some of the things you just said.

While I am not big on anecdotal evidence - "the rooster crowed and then the sun came up, therefore the rooster made the sun come up" - I think that view that man-made chemicals such as CFC's and other "halogens" cause the destruction of beneficial stratospheric ozone is much more than an opinion, and if it is to be labeled a mere conclusion, I would add that it is a correct conclusion, based on the immutabale laws of chemistry. I honestly don't see how you, or anyone, can come to a different conclusion.

And once again, I take exception to a characterization that you have made regarding those who don't share your point of view. First, they were "arrogant", and now, they are purveyors of "doom and gloom". I am very thankful that said "doomsayers" were listened to, and listened to well. A very real problem has been put on the road to recovery, with ozone levels expected to reach "normal" levels within just a few decades. I for one am very glad to see that decisive, logical and responsible action was taken based on the hard facts that the scientific community presented to the world. I much prefer said actions to those proposed by former Secretary of the Interior James Watt, whose solution to the diminishing ozone layer was to "wear hats and put on sunscreen".

The processes affecting global warming are admittedly much more complex than those involved in the destruction of the ozone layer, but I am going to continue to advocate what I consider to be responsible measures that I feel need to be taken to mitigate what I believe to be man's impact on the rate of warming of the planet. The opinions on (accelerated) global warming that I might express are not "my facts", but are rather merely opinions that reflect the best scientific research and analysis that the finest minds (and super-computers) on the planet have to offer. It distresses me to have thoughtful opinions based the scientific method dismissed as "doom and gloom". Ironically, ignoring science just might bring about all too much of that very "doom", as much as we might want to believe otherwise.

John

tposts · Feb 4, 2006

tell me there isn't something going on with the weather,It should be zero or close to it at this time of year. 

You are having a warm spell...report back later this week and tell me what the weather is like ... /forums/images/graemlins/crazy.gif

MikePA · Feb 4, 2006

John, exactly where did I tell you what to do? I didn't. We disagree. It's as simple as that.

tposts · Feb 4, 2006

Mike, I have to stand with you on this one.

cp1969 · Feb 4, 2006

There are a LOT of people standing with Mike on this one. Many scientists, too.

Questions about CFC and ozone depletion.

CT_Tree_Guy · Feb 4, 2006

You and I will have to agree to disagree. 

Mike -

If I took that the wrong way, it is my turn to apologize. I think it would have struck me better if you had said something like "Maybe you and I can just agree to disagree" instead of "we'll have to".

I still would like to see you agree with the conclusions reached by the scientific community, at least as far as the ozone layer is concerned. As I've said, I think that accelerated global warming is much more complex, but even there, I see man's "fine hand" at work. But the ozone depletion issue was, and is, a "slam dunk", in my opinion. Very well understood, and very well solved.

I still am not sure why you disagree with the world's top scientists on the subject of ozone depletion and man-made CFC's/halogens. You're not so much disagreeing with me, but with them. I'm just repeating what I have read on the subject, and have never encountered any credible evidence that supports a contrary opinion. What scientific basis do you have for your opinion that the two are not related? And it's OK to say, "you know what - I guess maybe I was wrong". If you can prove that there is no connection between the two, I'll do the same.

Why would I like you to agree with the things that I agree with? Because I believe them to be very likely true, and I believe that they represent very serious risks to our planet and our civilization. It gets back to the sentiment that it is arrogant to think that we can harm the planet. I would like to disabuse you, and anyone reading this, of that idea. Not so that i will be "right", but so our planet will be "alright". I firmly believe that we have the ability to screw up the planet we live on, and will almost certainly do so if we believe otherwise.

Back to global warming: If man does indeed have a role in an accelerated rate of global warming, we could well be in for tough times, and tougher times still if we don't take timely action.

Again, my goal is not to "argue" with you; it is to try to arrive at a common understanding of "the truth", and determine what steps might best be taken based on those findings. One degree C. in one century - OK, maybe not so bad. Four and a half degrees C. (9 degrees F.) in the next century? I think that would be big-time bad, and might best be avoided if at all possible. And problems, if they do indeed exist, are probably best solved once they have been recognized as problems.

John

CT_Tree_Guy · Feb 4, 2006

There are a LOT of people standing with Mike on this one. Many scientists, too. 

"Many scientists" believe that the universe was created in 6 days and that the earth is 10,000 years old. I'll need a little more compelling argument than that to convince me that there is not a direct link between man-made chemicals and ozone depletion.

And I'd like to see Mike's 7 Rules applied to SEPP.org. I'm wondering just what "axe" they have to grind, especially when I read things like this on their website:

Global Warming Issue: Computer models forecast rapidly rising global temperatures, but data from weather satellites and balloon instruments show no warming whatsoever. 

No warming whatsover. Really. If that is not utter nonsense that goes against everything I've ever heard or read on the subject of global warming ("natural", "accelerated" or otherwise), then I don't know what is. That is not science, that is propoganda.

HGM · Feb 4, 2006

Charles,
No offence, but I'm more inclined to accept John's EPA references over SEP(???) as they seem to be one of the groups Mike was refering to with an agenda.

While I believe that Mother Nature has a way of surviving through anything(whether we can or not), I do have to agree with John on the point that we do have an influence. How large, I dunno???

Just a random question for anyone, do you still dump your used motor oil in the ground because it wont really hurt anything, "its just someones agenda"?

The reason I make this point is because there are many things that have been acceptable in the past and are not now. Smoking cigarettes, using lard for frying, baby oil for sun tanning, drinking and driving when you were young and dumb, etc.....are all things that we relized were not in our best interest, and likely changed to prolong our time here. Regardless of your personal beliefs, you still have a say in your future.

I dont agree with the "tree huggers" that take these topics overboard, but I dont think we should be blatently arogant about our lack of ability to do harm either..

I can honestly say I'm somewhere between John and Mike on this one.. /forums/images/graemlins/grin.gif.. The CFC thing in the early '90s was definitly a money making proposition, but I still think it was necissary and it does appear to have worked according to science.

As for the warm winter, we're scheduled for snow Monday in Atlanta. Yes its been warmer than it has been in the past few years. This world has been constantly changing since the begining of time, just accept it and enjoy the oportunity to get more seat time /forums/images/graemlins/grin.gif The cold will return soon enough.. /forums/images/graemlins/grin.gif

MossRoad · Feb 4, 2006

I believe (opinion) that it's the height of human arrogance to believe we are the cause of global warming. 

Mike,
Of course man is not THE cause of it, but how hard is it to believe that we are contributing significantly to it?

For example, 80 percent of the land in Indiana that was originally forest is now farm land. No trees. No bio-diversity. Just single crops with an almost sterile growing medium for soil. Fertilizer must be used because the soil won't produce because there is nothing organic in it.

The grand Kankakee marsh that once supported one of the most abundant waterfowl populations in the world is gone. Drained to make farmland. Again, a sterile growing medium with no boidiversity.

No bobcats anymore. No beavers. No otters. No passenger pigeons. No bison. Polluted water supplies from industrial contamination. Polluted air from the steel mills and autos....

And that is just my home town and state....

So, I don't find it too hard to make the leap from decimated earth to decimated atmosphere and have a hard time coping with the fact that so many people can't make that leap with me. It is fairly obvious that man has caused these problems on the ground that I have mentioned, so why is it so hard to make the same conclusions towards the atmosphere? Sure, the earth has always fluctuated wildly since way before man was here and will continue to do so until the end of time. But it is as plain as the hands in front of our faces that man has had a huge part in altering the current environment in which we live. To deny it is burying our heads in the sand.

Should we panic? No. But should we do something about the pollution we are causing? Yes. I think it will help our current situation and benefit our kids.

plumboy · Feb 4, 2006

( tell me there isn't something going on with the weather,It should be zero or close to it at this time of year. 

You are having a warm spell...report back later this week and tell me what the weather is like ... /forums/images/graemlins/crazy.gif )

Absolutely,plenty of cold,snow and ice left in the years to come in this warming global climate.Getting a little snow here right now.

MikePA · Feb 5, 2006

Sorry, Moss, as I said to John, we disagree.

I do not buy the argument that because we can pollute in a micro environment we can do it on a macro level and then jump to the conclusion that we can cause global warming, then jump to the decision we have to fix it.

And before someone (not you Moss) leaps to the conclusion that because I don't believe man causes global warming that I must be for dirty air, dirty water, pro-polution, etc. I am not. We are called to be stewards of the earth.

As I mentioned in my first post and will again on this my last post, academic discussions are fine, my concern arises when economics enters the equation.

JimR · Feb 5, 2006

( tell me there isn't something going on with the weather,It should be zero or close to it at this time of year. 

You are having a warm spell...report back later this week and tell me what the weather is like ... /forums/images/graemlins/crazy.gif )

Not true. It's been like this for a few weeks now. That is not a warm spell. This week they are already predicting much warmer than normal temperatures again. My heating bill loves it. But something is wrong for sure. I don't even think the ground is frozen anymore.

JimR · Feb 5, 2006

( ( tell me there isn't something going on with the weather,It should be zero or close to it at this time of year. 

You are having a warm spell...report back later this week and tell me what the weather is like ... /forums/images/graemlins/crazy.gif )

Absolutely,plenty of cold,snow and ice left in the years to come in this warming global climate.Getting a little snow here right now. )

While you getting snow in KY., we are getting 2 inches of rain in MA. It has been weird weather this whole winter up here in the N.E. From the forecasts that I have seen, spring is right around the corner.

JimR · Feb 5, 2006

( I'm not panicing by any means, but bird flu is something to be concerned about.

The last major flu pandemic was "Spanish Flu" in 1918, 20 - 40 million people died worldwide.
)

Maybe this is what the world really needs. Just imagine wiping out a few billion people off the face of the earth. Less fuel would be used. There would be fewer pollutants being released into the atmosphere. Areas decimated by the flu could be turned back into woodlands. Fresh water would be more abundant. There would be less trash and sewer being pumped into our oceans contaminating the fish. The air would be cleaner due to less vehicles being driven.

JimR · Feb 5, 2006

( ( and we can safely store the by products, )

How can one possibly say this, knowing those by-products can remain a hazard for 100,000 + years?

Nuclear energy has its place, but the cost to future generations is an unknown and should not be taken lightly.

-Mike Z. /forums/images/graemlins/grin.gif )

Maybe it would be easier to ship all this nuclear waste at the sun to burn up rather than keep it here on earth.

cp1969 · Feb 5, 2006

( Charles,
No offence, but I'm more inclined to accept John's EPA references over SEP(???) as they seem to be one of the groups Mike was refering to with an agenda. )

That's fine. The only thing I'm trying to point out is that there is is NOT universal agreement in the scientific community over the effect of CFCs on ozone. The important thing is that you do your own research and reach your own conclusion rather than relying on an internet post that either flat-out states or implies that all scientists agree on a particular subject. The dissenters tend to get drowned out by whatever is politically correct at the moment (remember "global cooling?" "All science points to it!") and if one thinks the EPA does not have an agenda, my opinion is that further investigation would reveal otherwise.

plumboy · Feb 5, 2006

( I do not buy the argument that because we can pollute in a micro environment we can do it on a macro level and then jump to the conclusion that we can cause global warming, then jump to the decision we have to fix it. )

Reshaping the landsape by taking down the forest and paving over them plays a little part also.We cant fix it,disease,instinctive abstinence and extreme weather is the only solution IMO.The question is just how bad IT is.The climate as we know it has come to be through 100's of million years,in those years it has never seen an impact of an organism like us.Dinosaurs?They were plentiful enough to leave fossils but they stopped being for some reason-climate change.I dont think we will see an ice age by any means but we are in store for some changes in the years to come unless technology takes us to the next level,but if science fails then my guess is poverty and disease will prevail and change society,kinda put us back in place on the food chain we've left.

AKfish · Feb 5, 2006

WHOOOEEEE!!! This has darn near been as much fun as a bar fight on the 4th of July!
And as my dear ol' mom used to say --- don't squeal till you been hurt...
Whose hurtin' by the changes that are comin'? Anybody here can't fill his tractor up? Likely not fill the tank up next year? Gonna be a big deal if you fill up with 10-25% soybean, palm, canola oil biodiesel mix?
Is there more oil in the US or less? Think we should be lookin' around at what the long-term options might be? Think there might be more than a few OPPORTUNITIES with those options?
How about we line up our sons and daughter's to get on down to Venezula (sp?) and get that Chavez nut-ball in shape so he won't turn the spigot off (I think they're No. 2 behind the Saudi's in oil exported to the US) the next time we have some supply disruption in the world? Or should we re-think our non-existant national energy policy?
Nobody should be holdin' his head and cryin' the sky is fallin'. We can and should be doin' things differently in this country. We can make a differnce in the world by getting our house in order.
There's 2 brand new 10 MGWatt wind generators on the Missouri river bluff's near my folk's house in SD. They're tied into the Hydroelectric grid that sends power to Denver and Minneapolis.
WHAAA, WHAAA, WHAAA!!! Gut check, people. Suck it up and let's get moving! AKfish

beenthere · Feb 5, 2006

I'm with Mike too.

The 'statistics' can be twisted per what one wants to 'tell'.

The "scientists' publish to get more funding for their work and their career. Must take much of their 'ilk' with a grain of salt, as it is unfortunate that they are quite biased and usually have a great 'conflict' of interest. I know, as I was one of them and sometimes it wasn't pretty what one would do to 'sell' the research and get it funded.

Just think, 10,000 years ago Wisconsin was under ice. Guess its been warming up since then. I don't think its something new, nor will we 'change' it no matter what we do, (even if we suddenly quit burning ANY oil this very minute). Volcanoes, fires, you name it will continue whether we are here or not. And I don't get any funding for saying that. /forums/images/graemlins/grin.gif

plumboy · Feb 5, 2006

( Whose hurtin' by the changes that are comin'? Anybody here can't fill his tractor up? Likely not fill the tank up next year? Gonna be a big deal if you fill up with 10-25% soybean, palm, canola oil biodiesel mix?
)
I would think the people hurt short term are the ones who cant pay thier bills with the skyrocketting enregy costs and the employers who cant increase their wages to make up for it.I like the thought of bio in the years to come but we dont really have the idle farmland sitting around to make a dent,plus the droughts and floods due to the eratic weather we are in store for... /forums/images/graemlins/grin.gif(Sorry couldnt resist)Anyways it never hurts to keep food stockpiled for your thundersticks. /forums/images/graemlins/grin.gif