Future of HVAC and industry supply issues.

[2manyrocks]

No one anticipated CV would drive up equipment prices this much and that they would remain this elevated after the supply issues eased up.

Doesn't help that the suppliers know you're a hospital and you have to replace the units.

Commercial office leasing may be in trouble as the economy declines. Maybe that will ease demand for commercial HVAC units and help to hold pricing in check for you.

 

[Sigarms]

Just remember this...

2025 Carrier is using R454B, Trane R454A, the only difference is the manufacturer of the refrigerant.

At this point I know nothing about R454B and future equipment, but considering the operating pressures are similar, that's a good thing. However, no one has a crystal ball knowing what new equipment will cost with the new refrigerant.

I guess just like any other market, when a new product comes out, price goes up, then after a while, given supply and demand, the market will settle. When all the new SEER2 stuff hit the market at the end of last year, pricing was substantially higher on equipment. By about April, wouldn't you know it, pricing actually came down. Go figure.

Question becomes do you change out the units within 2 years knowing you're using an old discontinued refrigerant? and if you stick with R410A, how will the costs compare to R454B going down the future? Sad to say, no one has a crystal ball right now.

I'm assuming every RTU is noted on your end per voltage, phase and required accessories. Complete model and serial number should also be associated with every RTU. Also assuming RTU's are being tracked individually by maintenance / service fees?

Inventory issues could be fixed by 2025, honestly no clue. I know we've been waiting over a year on some equipment that still hasn't shown up. I'm not saying that to scare you, just the reality of the situation. Overall IMO inventory has gotten better on 3 phase equipment, it's just spotty with no rhyme or reason.

Of course it may be less expensive to change everything out in one shot, but that may not be practical due to inventory issues. Perhaps the "triage" method where you pick 3 RTU's at a time to replace? Your contractor should be able to get a run down on Carrier's overstock list on commercial they have sitting. Generally these are factory installed options that no one had ordered and they sit because they may cost an extra thousand dollars and no one ordered them for stock.

Out of curiosity, it the 40 ton make up air unit a Aaon or Reznor?

When it comes to operating budgets, I'm out. Just know you sooner or later you'll pay the piper, and you might as well do it on your own terms.

 

[Sigarms]

No one anticipated CV would drive up equipment prices this much and that they would remain this elevated after the supply issues eased up.

Doesn't help that the suppliers know you're a hospital and you have to replace the units.

CV did NOT drive up prices, period.

CV did however create a inventory shortage.

However, it was a perfect storm so to speak.

CV first hit in 2020. It was 2021 when everyone got hit hard.

Yes, manufacturers did have employee issues due to CV HOWEVER there was also a major equipment changeover that all HVAC manufacturers had to plan for in 2023. Pretty much every manufacturer had to come up with new equipment at the end of 2022 for 2023. Existing heat pumps could still be sold from existing inventory, but depending on the area of the country you live in, A/C was a required change over starting January 1st, 2023.

Commercial had a increase first quarter of 2023, but it was long overdue IMO.

I have to laugh at your last comment. ANYTIME I go and visit a hospital as a paying "customer", I regret going into HVAC and think the medical field was the racket I should have gotten into. One thing more than AC or heat that takes priority is ones health.

Now, if the HVAC company you use was bought out by a investment group, I have no issue telling you that they will rape you on price. These companies buy out successful HVAC companies, make the previous owner millionaires and then proceed to put management in position that have no clue about the HVAC industry. Their pricing is beyond stupid and people pay it because they bring in bean counters to make money for the investment company.

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The above is only 1 investment company, there are others. This happened about 25 years ago in NC and the original owners bought their previous companies back for pennies on the dollar.

The NC state board was actually looking at changing requirements for the company license holder due to these investment companies. Long story short, they (investment company) pays the previous own to use his HVAC license as well. Just know who you're buying from. A good friend of mine worked for a company that was bought out. The president had a MBA from California and didn't know the difference between a heat pump, AC unit or gas furnace. The VP has since moved back to California, but my buddy still left because he couldn't live with himself due to the price structure on the their new sell price.

I have no qualms with admitting everyone is in business to make money, but what these people do per pricing is beyond stupid. Standard job the old company would sell for 9K is now 22K type of pricing.

 

[ultrarunner]

All original equipment is Carrier with one Daikin replacement that required under warranty new coil and compressor and 4 months on the slow boat to reach us…

Imaging has the now 8 year old Yorks and some mini splits for server room and MRI equipment room…

 

[Sigarms]

All original equipment is Carrier with one Daikin replacement that required under warranty new coil and compressor and 4 months on the slow boat to reach us…

Imaging has the now 8 year old Yorks and some mini splits for server room and MRI equipment room…

Plan on replacing the Yorks first

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Upfront installation cost is substantially higher than a conventional package unit, but boy can it save you money over time energy wise. Nice thing about these systems is the indoor heads can do heating and cooling simultaneously vs a conventional residential ductless mini split system that can't. That said, may be impossible due to the layout and added cost of retrofitting. Generally I get them laid out for new construction, not retrofit.

 

[2manyrocks]

Maybe HVAC companies should use hospital/medical provider billing practices, too.

 

[ultrarunner]

I’m all for it…

We are 30 days net payment in full with our HVAC company and then interest starts accruing.

Not uncommon for payment for medical services to drag on for many months and over a year happens… yet payroll and supplies and 30k monthly utility bills for the clinic must be paid or services and supplies cut off.

Look anywhere in the country and you will find shuttered and bankrupt facilities… the reasons are varied… anyone coming through the ER must be treated without any regard to ability to pay… mandates and time spent away from patient care continue to pile on as do costs across the board…

 

[ultrarunner]

Here are a few pictures from today of one building rooftop HVAC

 

[2manyrocks]

I guess that's why medical providers sock it to the paying customers.

 

[ultrarunner]

Post Pandemic Labor rates dramatically higher…