California Drought

[ponytug]

Personally, I'm fascinated by the differences in oxygen isotope ratios in organisms like diatoms and mollusks that have been used to make very reproducible temperature indices. As far as anyone can tell it is straight physics of the different diffusion speeds of different isotopes of oxygen, and calcium / strontium ratios. E.g.

How are past temperatures determined from an ice core?

www.scientificamerican.com

Similar isotope effects cause 13C diamonds to be even better conductors of heat than normal 12C carbon diamonds. There's been a long push to make them for semiconductor chips to get heat off the integrated circuits faster, which allows for higher chip speeds.

Not really susceptible to assumptions, or bias, but as @riptides pointed out, there is always room to learn more. In my experience Nature, is generally more complicated than assumed. I like Occam's razor, but I detest assuming. It gets me into trouble on troubleshooting my tractor, and in the rest of my life, and you know what they say about assume...

All the best,

Peter

 

[NoTrespassing]

It may be over for this year, but it’s not over. Keep guessing.

It's funny how when an expert predicts something and they are completely wrong and proven so with hard evidence they don't admit it. Many times they will adjust their prediction to fit the evidence. I.E. global warming turns into climate change. For the west coast's sake I hope the experts continue to be proven wrong.

 

[Snobdds]

I knew you'd bite on that one!

You chum the waters anytime you want.

 

[California]

You chum the waters anytime you want.

Ok.

I can always count on you to bite.

 

[NoTrespassing]

I hope the experts are right THIS TIME!

No widespread drought is expected in California for the next 2 years, forecasters say

Following the recent winter storms, no widespread drought is expected in California for the next two years, through 2025 and into early 2026, AccuWeather forecasters announced Monday.

abc7.com

No widespread drought is expected in California for the next 2 years, forecasters say​

LOS ANGELES (KABC) -- Following recent winter storms, no widespread drought is expected in California for the next two years, through 2025 and into early 2026, AccuWeather forecasters announced Monday.

The weather company said it came to this conclusion after an extensive review of all available data and consultation with their expert team of long-range forecasters.

"That sets California up to be in a very good position here in terms of water supply over the next couple of years," AccuWeather chief meteorologist Jonathan Porter said.

Porter said El Niño has directed storms at California that has provided a lot of rain and refilled reservoirs.

At the moment, six of the state's most important reservoirs sit at or are above the historical average water levels.

"That gives us confidence that water is not going to be a scarce issue here in the short term in California," Porter said.

All this comes on the heels of what has turned out to be yet another wet winter, swamping California with heavy rainfall and flooding. The frequent deluges have fended off a return to the drought that has plagued the state over the past decade.

Some parts of California are so wet these days that even Death Valley National Park has a lake big enough for kayakers.

A powerful blizzard that closed highways and ski resorts had moved through the Sierra Nevada by early Monday, but forecasters warned that more snow was on the way for the Northern California mountains.

Last week's monster storm in the Sierra Mountains dumped up to 12 feet of snow, securing a healthy snowpack. Snowpack in the Sierra Mountains is important because during the summer, melting snow flows into the state's water table.

However, Porter said they'll have to keep an eye on warmer temperatures that could impact how fast the snow melts.

"That can result in some concerns about localized flooding as all of that snowpack melts into the creeks and streams, and eventually rivers and gets into the reservoirs," he said.

In Southern California, there will be a couple of pleasant days starting Monday before more rain arrives midweek.

Even with the laggard start to the rainy season, water storage in California's major reservoirs has been well above average thanks to runoff from last year's historic snowpack.

Some reservoirs have been releasing water into rivers to make room for incoming storm runoff and maintain flood control protection for downstream areas.

Even with all the rain and moisture, the threat of wildfires doesn't go away altogether.

"All of that extra vegetation that's now grown out can dry out quickly, and especially at times when we're dealing with any kind of gusty wind. There's still going to be a risk for some wildfires," Porter said. "Every drop of water is so precious in California, and that's going to continue to be the case whether there's widespread drought or not."

Porter said people should not let their guard down because the drought could return in the future, so it's important to continue finding new ways to conserve water.

 

[ponytug]

California has layers to its water recharge and reserves. Snow provides water into reservoirs and soils slowly over an extended time period. Episodic thunderstorms tend to flow quickly across the landscape and into streams and reservoirs, but with reduced groundwater recharge. Slow sustained rains tend to do a good job of groundwater recharge, and minimize erosion and runoff pollution.

For California especially, where rainfall can be highly variable in intensity, the totals can be less informative than how the precipitation occurred, when it occurred, and in what form. The recent hurricane and storms in Southern California dumped large quantities of water, most of which ran out to the ocean, having overwhelmed the few debris basins, and the ability of the soil to absorb water.

There is also the rural/urban divide about whether the water in question is predominantly ground water, or reservoir sourced, affecting one's view of drought and water scarcity, or lack thereof.

Like many things, I think the question of drought or water reserves isn't simple.

All the best,

Peter

 

[kenmbz]

Since Cali has a lot of water now, I can predict they won't be spending as much on water retention and usage.
Seems like every 10 years Cali gets into a massive drought, and each time it's worse.
But then it rains and everyone goes on with their happy ways until the next crises.
More building, more usage and the next drought will be even more damaging.
Don't need any climate change to predict this one, since it has happened 6 times in my lifetime already.

 

[orezok]

That can’t be. Everyone is leaving CA according to the experts

 

[jyoutz]

That can’t be. Everyone is leaving CA according to the experts

I’m not sure the expert is the correct description of people saying that.

 

[California]

"But it had to be true. My TV channel wouldn't lie to me!"

 

[DarkBlack]

They can’t tell you what a woman is, or where a virus originated from yesterday, but they can tell you exactly what the temperature was 22,000 years ago

 

[plowhog]

That can’t be. Everyone is leaving CA according to the experts

it's even weirder than many people think.

When my wife and I first moved to Nevada, we bought a brand new home in a Del Webb development. Close to the border, our intention was to live there a majority of the time, as actual residents, while we wound things down in CA. We moved and lived there, including furnishings, driver licenses, doctors, dentists, etc. Spent more than 50% of the time there-- just like "normal" new residents even though we still owned our former house in CA.

We bought a ready-made Del Webb home. In our part of the development it was over 90% sold out. The first week we lived there, we noticed at night all the houses were dark. Also the second week, and on and on. We could see a dozen or more houses, but our house was the only one with lights on. Dang did these people go to bed before the sun went down, or what?

I asked the RE broker what the deal was. He said it was CA residents who bought a home to claim Nevada residency and avoid the CA income tax. Whoa! So these people "lived" in Nevada officially, but rarely visited. That's really stupid in my opinion, but a great number of people were doing it.

So-- what does it mean to "move" out of California?

 

[oosik]

The California drought will soon be corrected. Rising insurance rates on homes and vehicles is driving folks to other states. Those who can afford to remain will have plenty of water.

Lets face it - an uber large city in the desert was a bad idea in the beginning - it sure as Hell has not got any better now.

 

[deserteagle71]

The California drought will soon be corrected. Rising insurance rates on homes and vehicles is driving folks to other states. Those who can afford to remain will have plenty of water.

Lets face it - an uber large city in the desert was a bad idea in the beginning - it sure as Hell has not got any better now.

Exactly! Las Vegas in Nevada is a prime example. 3 million people in the desert with only one source of water - the Colorado River. Which is being sucked dry slowly but surely.

 

[California]

The California drought will soon be corrected. Rising insurance rates on homes and vehicles is driving folks to other states. Those who can afford to remain will have plenty of water.

Lets face it - an uber large city in the desert was a bad idea in the beginning - it sure as Hell has not got any better now.

Nah. Ag gets some 80% of all the water so people departing will just leave more for ag.

Agree that putting a city in the middle of the desert is madness.

 

[ultrarunner]

The California drought will soon be corrected. Rising insurance rates on homes and vehicles is driving folks to other states. Those who can afford to remain will have plenty of water.

Lets face it - an uber large city in the desert was a bad idea in the beginning - it sure as Hell has not got any better now.

Possible but a lot of California… especially the Central Valley has deltas and fresh water in abundance flowing to the sea with Sacramento River being an example.

 

[Larry Caldwell]

Nah. Ag gets some 80% of all the water so people departing will just leave more for ag.

Agree that putting a city in the middle of the desert is madness.

I wonder: What is the largest city abandoned city in America? California City is geographically the largest, but I don't think many ever lived there. A few houses remain occupied. Most ghost towns peaked around 10,000 residents before they were abandoned. Historically, big cities take a long time to die, usually because of environmental changes.

 

[square1]

I wonder: What is the largest city abandoned city in America? California City is geographically the largest, but I don't think many ever lived there. A few houses remain occupied. Most ghost towns peaked around 10,000 residents before they were abandoned. Historically, big cities take a long time to die, usually because of environmental changes.

Interesting question. Here's one take.

Answer
The largest city population-wise in the US to later become a ghost town was Goldfield, Nevada. Established in 1902, Goldfield quickly became the most influential, richest, and largest city in Nevada, with a peak population of 20,000 people. However, due to a significant gold discovery in 1904 followed by mine declines and natural disasters like flash floods and fires, the population dwindled down to about 1,500 by 1910, leading to its eventual decline and transformation into a "living ghost town" with around 250 residents
5
.

 

[kenmbz]

Detroit was on it's way to becoming a ghost town with >50% of it's population gone since 1990.
Looks like it is stabilizing now.

Cali population was still increasing as of 2020. Down about 430,000 to 2023 though. Drop in the bucket as the state has 39,000,000 million or so people.

 

[Molalla1]

The town that I live closest to has a little over 5,000 residents.