Battery based vehicles of today and tomorrow pt 2

[shooterdon]

The problem with Tesla's new low cost vehicle that may or may not happen is competition. Unlike the original Teslas with almost no rivals when they were introduced, a new cheap Tesla will be competing with several other makes and models.

Very valid point. And if Ford does not ball it up with their "affordable" EV, there are many people who will buy from a dealer they have delt with for many years. If I have the choice of a $25k econo EV from Ford or Tesla I will be getting the Ford, but I am 200 miles from a Tesla center.

Both Ford and GM beat first quarter expectations while Tesla faltered. Also, earnings per share for Ford are expected to be about the same as Tesla reported yesterday. But Ford stock is less than 10% the price of Tesla.

Although Tesla may be a better long term bet, most investors are swayed by short term results.

The unknown is EV market penetration. Nearly everyone wants a car or truck but not everyone wants an EV. Gas should be at under $3.50 a gallon and may drop further if the morons lose in 2024. Without a significant cost difference in operating costs, and/or government incentives, EVs have little appeal to most Americans.

Scale back the foolish EPA regulations and ICE companies get a boost in profits while Tesla loses its Carbon Credit income. 2024 will impact that as well.

 

[Gale Hawkins]

Don't watch. Just read the comments to realize why ICE is going away faster then the polar ice caps.

Many people own good enough ICE to get by until the Cyber Cabs start running. The same goes for the young people that are not motivated to even get driver license anymore.

Falling EV prices is turning up the heat on ICE.

 

[CloverKnollFarms]

This guy also said CarMax won't deal in EVs anymore because the values are so unstable that they don't want to have them on the lot.

My autos cost me about $2k each per year. Cost to acquire, insure, feed...

Do I really want to request a cab out in my rural area every time I want to go to the store, hardware, neighbors house?

What will the cost of my commute be to work 35 miles away?

Those rides will have to be cheap as hell to compete with what I pay now, say nothing for the convenience of going where I want, when I want.

 

[Fuddyduddy1952]

Golly, what if the cost of diesel and fertilizer go up greatly increasing the cost to farm? It is life. Then MPG$ changes. What if the cost of a BigMac increases?


What is the point of the funds one "invests" if one doesn't ultimately procure something one desires?

I understand both of your points, however, "miles per gallon equivalent" in itself is deceptive since electric vehicles don't burn liquid fuel (i.e., "gallons") whatsoever...or do they? Our electric provider generates over half of provided power by natural gas, petroleum and coal.
Every place is different...so MPGe???
For a consumer to make an informed choice, to be fair and accurate that rating sticker would depend on where it's sold and used. Cost per mile (?).
Then price difference must be considered, otherwise in the words of my local bank manager "most people spend to their income".

 

[Gale Hawkins]

This guy also said CarMax won't deal in EVs anymore because the values are so unstable that they don't want to have them on the lot.

My autos cost me about $2k each per year. Cost to acquire, insure, feed...

Do I really want to request a cab out in my rural area every time I want to go to the store, hardware, neighbors house?

What will the cost of my commute be to work 35 miles away?

Those rides will have to be cheap as hell to compete with what I pay now, say nothing for the convenience of going where I want, when I want.

EV prices are not unstable. I think you meant to say they're dropping like a rock.

Our 2016 Nissan Leaf SL that we purchased in 2019 for $13.5K with 22K miles after I realized EVs were going replace ICE one day has been a good fit for us. It's 15 or 20 mi to our county seats so that works fine with 150 mile range.

In a technical sense, anyone with a functional ICE today should hold off on buying that EV for the next few years since Tesla is only viable maker today in the USA. Expect the floodgates to cheap EVs from China to open by 2030.

 

[Fuddyduddy1952]

Gale:
If my wife & I are invited to your 110th birthday party in 2061 we'll not only bring you a nice present, we'll show up in a brand new Tesla ZZZ!

 

[Gale Hawkins]

Gale:
If my wife & I are invited to your 110th birthday party in 2061 we'll not only bring you a nice present, we'll show up in a brand new Tesla ZZZ!

Stay in touch so we can get you a word where the place is going to be.

 

[Oaktree]

Both Ford and GM beat first quarter expectations while Tesla faltered. Also, earnings per share for Ford are expected to be about the same as Tesla reported yesterday. But Ford stock is less than 10% the price of Tesla.

Although Tesla may be a better long term bet, most investors are swayed by short term results.

The unknown is EV market penetration. Nearly everyone wants a car or truck but not everyone wants an EV. Gas should be at under $3.50 a gallon and may drop further if the morons lose in 2024. Without a significant cost difference in operating costs, and/or government incentives, EVs have little appeal to most Americans.

Noted by the fact that many are opting for hybrids, a solution that makes way more sense for most Americans than does a straight EV. Gas prices are subject to many variables and will continue to be volatile regardless of who occupies the White House.
I'm not sure I see Tesla as a better long term bet than Ford, GM, Honda or any of the other legacy automakers. These companies have been building autos for many decades and have a pretty good idea what they're doing overall. I think a big part of Tesla's stock dropping like a stone is just how overpriced it was only a few years ago when everyone thought they were the wave of the future, but reality has set in. Not to say the company won't still be around, but no way are they worth even their current day valuation.

I'm sure Gale will continue to post links to Youtube influencers who claim the contrary, but IMHO most of these are best taken with a shovelful of salt.

EV prices are not unstable. I think you meant to say they're dropping like a rock.

I think the phrase you're looking for is circling the drain.

 

[DarkBlack]

Expect the floodgates to cheap EVs from China to open by 2030.

Read my post #17840 from this morning.Tesla better start appealing to the general EV crowd, and more, sooner rather than later, unless their ace in the pocket is relying on lobbyists and administration changes getting higher tougher tariffs.
The floodgates already have a leaky crack developing…

“ A made-in-China electric vehicle will hit U.S. dealers this summer offering power and efficiency similar to the Tesla Model Y, the world's best-selling EV, but for about $8,000 less.“

 

[shooterdon]

Don't watch. Just read the comments to realize why ICE is going away faster then the polar ice caps.

Many people own good enough ICE to get by until the Cyber Cabs start running. The same goes for the young people that are not motivated to even get driver license anymore.

Falling EV prices is turning up the heat on ICE.

Falling EV prices will turn up the heat on EV manufacturers a lot more. They cannot make up the lost margins with profitable ICE sales.

Tesla is a one trick pony when it comes to cars. They offer nothing for 60% of Americans who are living paycheck to paycheck. It will be interesting to see if the $25k econo EV winds up like the Cybertruck. A projected $42k vehicle that ended up $20 more when it hit the market and is now over $80k. A $35k econo EV is not going to light up sales.

The Robotaxi is not going to save them as a car company. There are 240k taxi drivers in the US. Taxi companies have multiple drivers for each car. So let's say 150k cabs. Not a huge market even if Telsa gets 100% of it. ICE taxis last about 3.5 years... works out to less than 50k units a year. But EVs are so much better that they will last 5 years so only 30k units a year. Where is the sales growth?

Seems to me Fuddy was pretty smart to spend $18k to get a 40 mpg puddle jumper for a cheap ride that does 90% of what most people need a car to do. He can jump into it whenever he wants, goes where ever he wants to go, and has a ride back unless he gets polluted and cannot drive.