AI being helpful thread

[MossRoad]

I think some people miss what I think the point of this thread is. Its not a philosophical argument; its here, so use it, or don't, but you can't stop change. I take the approach of, I need to learn to take advantage of its usefulness. If you are no longer in the work force, or are exiting in next 3-5 years, hiding is an option. Ive got 25-30 years left to work, and hiding isnt at option

The issue I see is that only the strong survive, so to speak. Those that can adapt and shift careers to the next generation of labor will continue to thrive for the foreseeable future. However, there will be fewer and fewer jobs as automation marches on, and even people that have the mental and physical capabilities to be good candidates for employment won't have the opportunity to do anything, as there won't be enough jobs for everyone.

My former brother in-law outlasted 5-6 rounds of RIFs (reduction in force) from several iterations of Bell Labs and lasted until he could retire, but only because he was a genius.

I survived 6 rounds of RIFs at the Newspaper and only left when there were no more production jobs to take from other people. I had the good fortune to know how to do everyone else's job at the place, but there just weren't anymore jobs to take.

I think that's going to be the way of the future. Adapt and be the last one standing.

 

[paulsharvey]

Ok, so that displaces 3 guys on a 8 man crew? You still need guys shoveling sand, even if the machine mixes mortar; you still need materials staged, you still have to deliver, and set up the robot. You still need guys cutting end bricks; cleaning, ect.

I would be interested to see how the robot deals with out of square slabs, weather conditions, variables in material, ect. Not saying it can't deal with them, just curious how well programmers understand construction, and just how imperfect it is?

Also, curious how cost effective it is. Will it improve, sure, will it displace some people, probably.

Kinda like nail guns might have displaced some framers, but that doesnt mean nail guns are evil

 

[paulsharvey]

I will say, if I am a C or D grade "creative" type, I would be looking to either upgrade to a B or A, or start looking at exit options

 

[MossRoad]

Ok, so that displaces 3 guys on a 8 man crew? ...

That's a 37.5% reduction in force.

Look. I've been there on both ends of the situation. When I started at the newspaper there were 500 employees. Automation did away with 75% of the jobs over the first 25 years. I helped implement that automation to the point I automated myself out of a job. So I hopped back over to maintenance and rode another 3 years maintaining all of the machinery that eliminated many of those jobs. Then they outsourced production due to lack of circulation numbers to justifying maintaining all of that equipment.

I'm currently in a handyman position for rental units. People keep breaking stuff, and things wear out, so I'm good for the next 18 months when I'll retire. But even in this role, I can see changes from fluorescent lights to LED needing fewer people over thousands of rental units. Just like the lamplighters of yore.

 

[NorTracNY]

AI is just another step in productivity. It will do great in some areas and not so well in others. There's no question that it will help. As with any technology, it will disrupt the current state of things. Some jobs will be eliminated, MANY will change, and MANY will not be significantly impacted.

For me, I have found that it allows me to do a few infrequent tasks that I do at work which might take me 3-5 hours and I can now use AI to do it in 10 minutes! There are a few other tasks that would take me 1-2 hours and they are done in 20 seconds. I believe it's important for us to learn to use it. I agree with the CEO of Nvida. "You're not going to lose your job to AI. You're going to lose your job to someone who uses AI"

 

[WinterDeere]

I think some people miss what I think the point of this thread is. Its not a philosophical argument; its here, so use it, or don't, but you can't stop change. I take the approach of, I need to learn to take advantage of its usefulness. If you are no longer in the work force, or are exiting in next 3-5 years, hiding is an option. Ive got 25-30 years left to work, and hiding isnt at option

Exactly. As much as I’ve been defending our pursuit of AI, I find the tech as terrifying to the careers of my children, as anyone else. But you can’t stick your head in the sand and wish it away, when everyone from those competing for the same jobs to hostile nations are pursuing it, full-tilt.

Also, curious how cost effective it is. Will it improve, sure, will it displace some people, probably.

Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, we have seen countless examples of people screaming that new tech will eliminate jobs. The reality is it has almost universally done the opposite, by decreasing costs, which increases demand. Yes, some individual roles are eliminated, but there is always net growth.

The big difference with AI, is that the specific roles it will eliminate are not in the area of unskilled labor, where people might very easily shift to another role. It’s not even in the area of skilled labor, where someone might retrain for a new role in 2 years. AI will replace specific roles that previously required a doctorate degree, putting the potential cost of retraining in the “many years” territory, the cost of developing experience in the new role in the decades territory.

My son won’t be a mason or a carpenter, but he may be a biomedical engineer or a lawyer. Seeing his potential roles evaporate after $400k and most of a decade spent in post-secondary education is more than a little upsetting.

But all you can do is assess and manage the risk as reasonably as possible, and push on. Adapt, or watch your foes do it better.

 

[MossRoad]

AI is just another step in productivity. It will do great in some areas and not so well in others. There's no question that it will help. As with any technology, it will disrupt the current state of things. Some jobs will be eliminated, MANY will change, and MANY will not be significantly impacted.

For me, I have found that it allows me to do a few infrequent tasks that I do at work which might take me 3-5 hours and I can now use AI to do it in 10 minutes! There are a few other tasks that would take me 1-2 hours and they are done in 20 seconds. I believe it's important for us to learn to use it. I agree with the CEO of Nvida. "You're not going to lose your job to AI. You're going to lose your job to someone who uses AI"

And yet, at the end, there are fewer positions.

I've mentioned before, we had people doing repeatable mundane tasks, tasks that needed to be done every day, on a PC. I could put a keystroke capture on their PC, let it capture their work, turn that into a program, run that program on a cheap $600 PC, and a human would never have to do that job again.

Now that eliminated maybe 5 hours of work per week for that person. Doesn't sound like much.... except I built 50 of those boxes, eliminating 250 hours of work per week. That's 6+ employees. They terminated employees and split up their remaining tasks amongst other employees.

Again, I'm not saying this is a bad thing or a thing to be feared, but.... sooner rather than later there are going to be fewer jobs due to automation. What are those people going to do for employment?

What are the future job fields that are expanding faster than automation, and will there be enough of those jobs to sustain society?

 

[WinterDeere]

Now that eliminated maybe 5 hours of work per week for that person. Doesn't sound like much.... except I built 50 of those boxes, eliminating 250 hours of work per week. That's 6+ employees. They terminated employees and split up their remaining tasks amongst other employees.

Again, I'm not saying this is a bad thing or a thing to be feared, but.... sooner rather than later there are going to be fewer jobs due to automation. What are those people going to do for employment?

… and company overhead goes down, the cost reduction of which allows lower pricing to compete with domestic or foreign competitors, eventually increasing affordability and then demand. Increased demand yields increased workload in other areas, and company eventually needs to hire more than 6 new employees. Circle of life.

 

[rontaki]

We'll know AI has fully arrived when it gets most or all of the blame for global warming. I asked Google's AI what the solution to global warming is, and it regurgitated the usual, standard stuff. I don't think AI has any useful answers for that.

 

[scootr]

Best quote of the thread !
CEO of Nvida. "You're not going to lose your job to AI. You're going to lose your job to someone who uses AI"

I'm stepping away from the workforce. I use AI because I never stopped learning. Now I can learn faster, easier than before.