I'm just a total layman myself but I'm skeptical that science is now tied into religion and politics from both viewpoints so I never know if I'm getting straight science.
This is what I said "However, in my opinion, (based on the correlation of global warming with the population explosion and the Industrial Revolution) that probability [cause is natural] is much lower than the probability that human activity is the sole cause or at least a major contributing factor." So your re-statement is partially correct.
It would be interesting to know more detail about how the earth puts out huge quantities of carbon dioxide on its own. I haven't heard of this but it bears more research. I haven't done any research into how climate events have occurred in the past except what I hear. I'm just a total layman myself but I'm skeptical that science is now tied into religion and politics from both viewpoints so I never know if I'm getting straight science.
But we know that the climate has changed many, many times before man was a potential factor. So why now is man the key factor and all those 'natural' climate changing factors no longer relevant?
Correlation is not causation: "Everyday rekees4300 wakes up and everyday people die in traffic accidents. Therefore rekees4300 is the cause of traffic accidents."
It would be interesting to know more detail about how the earth puts out huge quantities of carbon dioxide on its own.
It's one thing to read excerpts and commentary, and another to read the actual reports. I couldn't find where NASA reported an increase in Arctic ice on the NASA site. Some British paper said something like that. Might be like the climate scientist's complaint against the work of another guy who was predicting a certain rise in sea level due to GW. The doubters loved that and jumped right on it....unfortunately, they failed to note that the complaining scientist felt the other author had under calculated the effect. The scientific literature is a bit like the Bible. Decide what you want to see and by gosh, there's your proof. Check out Roy Spencer's page for the latest global temperature. It's current to April. Spencer doesn't believe in AGW, so I guess his reports of the temps are believable?
CO2 keeps going up, too:
Trends in Carbon Dioxide
But that's OK, because it can go up as a result of higher temperatures and so it doesn't have to be the cause, right? Oh....problem....it's going up, but we don't believe the temperature is going up. Drat. Better check with Fox to see what I believe.
Chuck
But we know that the climate has changed many, many times before man was a potential factor. So why now is man the key factor and all those 'natural' climate changing factors no longer relevant?
Correlation is not causation: "Everyday rekees4300 wakes up and everyday people die in traffic accidents. Therefore rekees4300 is the cause of traffic accidents."
Man is now the key factor because there are more humans (6,800,000,000) alive now than have lived in past 4 million years of human history.
Correlation is causation: "Everyday 6.8 billion humans emit CO2 into the atmosphere trapping the sun's heat and everyday the Earth gets warmer. Therefore 6.8 billion humans are the probably the cause of the Earth getting warmer.
Man is now the key factor because there are more humans (6,800,000,000) alive now than have lived in past 4 million years of human history.
Correlation is causation: "Everyday 6.8 billion humans emit CO2 into the atmosphere trapping the sun's heat and everyday the Earth gets warmer. Therefore 6.8 billion humans are the probably the cause of the Earth getting warmer.
So why was the planet cooling from about the mid 1940's to the mid 70's?
Except that we now know that the Earth is not, in fact getting warmer,
So why was the planet cooling from about the mid 1940's to the mid 70's?
That statement is utter nonsense.
According to NOAA and NASA data, the Earth's average surface temperature has increased by about 1.2 to 1.4 F in the last 100 years. The eight warmest years on record (since 1850) have all occurred since 1998, with the warmest year being 2005. Most of the warming in recent decades is very likely the result of human activities.
Basic Information | Climate Change | U.S. EPA
That statement is utter nonsense.
According to NOAA and NASA data, the Earth's average surface temperature has increased by about 1.2 to 1.4 F in the last 100 years. The eight warmest years on record (since 1850) have all occurred since 1998, with the warmest year being 2005. Most of the warming in recent decades is very likely the result of human activities.
Basic Information | Climate Change | U.S. EPA
Yup, just like in the mideval days.