Battery based vehicles of today and tomorrow pt 2

   / Battery based vehicles of today and tomorrow pt 2 #17,861  
shooterdon said:
Falling EV prices will turn up the heat on EV manufacturers a lot more. They cannot make up the lost margins with profitable ICE sales.

Tesla is a one trick pony when it comes to cars. They offer nothing for 60% of Americans who are living paycheck to paycheck. It will be interesting to see if the $25k econo EV winds up like the Cybertruck. A projected $42k vehicle that ended up $20 more when it hit the market and is now over $80k. A $35k econo EV is not going to light up sales.

The Robotaxi is not going to save them as a car company. There are 240k taxi drivers in the US. Taxi companies have multiple drivers for each car. So let's say 150k cabs. Not a huge market even if Telsa gets 100% of it. ICE taxis last about 3.5 years... works out to less than 50k units a year. But EVs are so much better that they will last 5 years so only 30k units a year. Where is the sales growth?

Seems to me Fuddy was pretty smart to spend $18k to get a 40 mpg puddle jumper for a cheap ride that does 90% of what most people need a car to do. He can jump into it whenever he wants, goes where ever he wants to go, and has a ride back unless he gets polluted and cannot drive.
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I would imagine the argument for making money on Robotaxi will be licensing/software deals. I don't see it ever being more than 10% of revenue. Regulations/lawsuits will delay the implementation for years to come.
 
   / Battery based vehicles of today and tomorrow pt 2 #17,864  
NoTrespassing said:
I would imagine the argument for making money on Robotaxi will be licensing/software deals. I don't see it ever being more than 10% of revenue. Regulations/lawsuits will delay the implementation for years to come.
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The average cab driver makes $24k a year so there is not a lot of wiggle room. But let's say Tesla gets $12k per vehicle per year and half the cab fleet converts. 75k cabs at $12k works out to $900 million a year in revenue. Assume a profit of 75% and down to $675 million. Not chump change but not significant.

Ford made a profit of over $10 billion in 2023.

I agree with you. It will not be much money and it will not come overnight. The numbers do not make sense so I must be missing something. So why the WOW over yesterday's report?

Taxi companies could jump on the EV bandwagon now but that is not happening. Robotaxis only saves them $24k/person on cabbies. That looks attractive until you factor in $12k for FSD, possible higher insurance rates and, if they pull a Hertz, higher depreciation. A cab in NYC puts on 180 miles during a 12 hr shift....two charges per day will work. Add in taxi companies will need to upgrade garages to support charging every vehicle every day. Unless they send the cab home with the driver and he charges at home in NYC...LOL

Like I said, I cannot make the numbers work. It sounds like marketing BS to me.
 
   / Battery based vehicles of today and tomorrow pt 2 #17,867  
Gale Hawkins said:
Stay in touch so we can get you a word where the place is going to be.
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DarkBlack said:
Read my post #17840 from this morning.Tesla better start appealing to the general EV crowd, and more, sooner rather than later, unless their ace in the pocket is relying on lobbyists and administration changes getting higher tougher tariffs.
The floodgates already have a leaky crack developing…

“ A made-in-China electric vehicle will hit U.S. dealers this summer offering power and efficiency similar to the Tesla Model Y, the world's best-selling EV, but for about $8,000 less.“
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Maybe... It depends on if lawmakers are OK with China's massive under the table subsidies to some of it's EV makers.
Even with those subsidies, Tesla is doing OK against the Chinese brands in the UK. We will see where this shakes out eventually. There was a video I watched that was surprising saying China has over 100 EV companies that each have around 1% of the China EV market.

There is going to be major consolidation as many go broke and are bought up by bigger fish. I do think BYD will do well especially if the no burn battery is really no burn and has a long life.
SAIC/ Roewe/ MG I think has the resources to do well (Company that built my old Rhino 55HP tractor many years ago) really liked the Marvel X and Marvel R especially the interior (yes , better than my Tesla) Geely for sure- (Volvo). Not sure whether NIO will catch on here with the swap out batteries.
 
   / Battery based vehicles of today and tomorrow pt 2 #17,869  
MarkF48 said:
www.foxbusiness.com

Tesla driver using autopilot mode charged with vehicular homicide in death of motorcyclist

A motorcyclist in Washington state is dead after a Tesla vehicle on autopilot crashed into him last week. The driver is charged with vehicular homicide.
www.foxbusiness.com www.foxbusiness.com
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Ever Vigilant... and not all are, This unfortunately was statistically virtually inevitable. I feel bad for the surviving family members.

As a motorcycle rider I worry about people's attention on a phone in any automobile. I actually would Like it if Tesla put a heads up display or center binnacle screen like most cars have for the basics. looking down and to the right is a distraction. I do like that most features can be done by voice command without taking eyes off the road. Is the big screen to the side Model Y and 3 as good as what the Model S and X have No they are Not imo.
 
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