Is the Cyber Truck a Flop?

[ultrarunner]

Automation definitely displaces labor… some adapt, some can’t or won’t and new jobs created.

I see this a lot with automated receptionists… and I detest phone trees where you make 6 or more selections only to hear the mailbox is full or auto disconnect.

Remember when executives had secretaries… not so much any more and those that do are Administrative Assistants.

If self driving ever takes off lots of drivers may be idled.

The refreshing part is there are still tasks needing to be done not easily automated or off shored…

In 1982 my Apple//e with Letter Quality Printer, Dual Floppy Drives etc. set me back about 6 months wages…

I still have it including the box it came in and I said at the time they are going to have to bury me with it because it was so expensive!

 

[WinterDeere]

Automation definitely displaces labor… some adapt, some can’t or won’t and new jobs created.

I see this a lot with automated receptionists… and I detest phone trees where you make 6 or more selections only to hear the mailbox is full or auto disconnect.

Yep, if you drill down to the individual job level, there are always displacements, especially at the menial and low-paying end of the spectrum. The job of someone who was paid just a scoche over minimum wage was eliminated, but replaced in numbers by those who make telephone hardware, software, install, service, sell, and manage all of that crap. Overall, the numbers go up, but there are always some uncomfortable individual transitions.

I suppose we should have never made the switch to cars, just to protect the ferriers' jobs? Go tell the auto union, mechanics, car salesmen, and oil rig workers!

 

[WoodChuckDad]

People lose purpose; I see it daily, and I know you do too. It's played hell on society, and it's nothing like it will be with the combination of modern robotics and AI.

I wanted to come back to this because it is important, and in fact is my greatest concern with these sudden advancements. We have made life easier than at any time in history and many people are still unhappy.
The overall level of comfort is much greater, food is abundant and most people have more options in every aspect of their lives, but it seems many people have less order and satisfaction. My personal belief is that a job gives many people a sense of purpose and when they don’t feel that purpose, dissatisfaction grows. The other parts of their lives don’t seem as fulfilling , perhaps for no more reason, than they dont have hard tasks to perform and problems to solve to use up their mental restlessness, and their minds wander down dark roads.
We have this now with a big chunk of people who don’t work regular jobs. So I don’t know what happens when you add to that with a transitioning group of people who don’t embrace and adapt to the new opportunities and have idle time and easy and instant contact with millions of others who have idle time.

 

[Jstpssng]

I finally saw my first cybertruck today. Pictures don't do it any justice.
It would win an ugly contest against a Pontiac Aztek.

 

[ultrarunner]

Can’t remember the last time I saw an Aztek but I see Cyber trucks every day.

 

[Jstpssng]

You can't take time to set every 90# chunk of oak into the bed with kid gloves. You get close and chuck it in.

Maybe you do. When I'm loading firewood I do take the time to set it in the bed. It's cut stove length abd stacked so that I can fit more.

 

[NoTrespassing]

MSN

www.msn.com

Things are undoubtedly bad at Tesla. Its sales are dwindling. Its profits are plunging, as is its share price. There are regular protests outside its showrooms. The Cybertruck is a flop. And somehow, it’s actually a lot worse than that.

 

[WinterDeere]

Its sales are dwindling.

The article has an agenda, of course. But even so, I'm surprised the author reached as far as "dwindling", in describing sales above 45,000 for each of the prior three months. Sure, it's down 20% from the prior year, but each of the prior years were also down over the juggernaut that was 2022 car sales... and that's all before Musk irritated all the lefties by aligning with the current administration.

Here are the actual March sales numbers, for the last ten years:

2015: 1200
2016: 2250
2017: 3000
2018: 8820
2019: 14,625
2020: 10,000
2021: 23,760
2022: 89,575
2023: 60,395
2024: 53,881
2025: 45,066

You can see that March 2023 was already down over March 2022, long before the release of the CyberTruck. And 2024 was down over 2023, long before Musk drove his fanboys insane by inserting himself into the current administration.

The Musk/Trump effect likely accounts for some of the recent loss, but another large factor is that the major auto makers are finally coming out with some reasonably good EV's, such that Tesla is losing the all-out monopoly they've enjoyed most of the last 10 years.

 

[Oaktree]

The Musk/Trump effect likely accounts for some of the recent loss, but another large factor is that the major auto makers are finally coming out with some reasonably good EV's, such that Tesla is losing the all-out monopoly they've enjoyed most of the last 10 years.

Agree, but a 50% drop in sales in 3 years is pretty significant.

 

[NoTrespassing]

The article has an agenda, of course. But even so, I'm surprised the author reached as far as "dwindling", in describing sales above 45,000 for each of the prior three months. Sure, it's down 20% from the prior year, but each of the prior years were also down over the juggernaut that was 2022 car sales... and that's all before Musk irritated all the lefties by aligning with the current administration.

Here are the actual March sales numbers, for the last ten years:

2015: 1200
2016: 2250
2017: 3000
2018: 8820
2019: 14,625
2020: 10,000
2021: 23,760
2022: 89,575
2023: 60,395
2024: 53,881
2025: 45,066

You can see that March 2023 was already down over March 2022, long before the release of the CyberTruck. And 2024 was down over 2023, long before Musk drove his fanboys insane by inserting himself into the current administration.

The Musk/Trump effect likely accounts for some of the recent loss, but another large factor is that the major auto makers are finally coming out with some reasonably good EV's, such that Tesla is losing the all-out monopoly they've enjoyed most of the last 10 years.

Combine loss of sales and loss of margins and you have problems. The article may have an agenda, but the numbers don't lie. I agree, this was coming before DOGE. I do think the Cyber Truck was much less successful than many predicted. Tesla will need to pivot to improve numbers, and I believe they can.

A key product margin is also shrinking. In the first quarter, that measure, the gross automotive profit margin, excludes not only regulatory credit sales but many other expenses. The margin was 12.5% in the most recent quarter, down from a high of 30% in the first quarter of 2022.

 

[WinterDeere]

Agreed. Tesla gets a lot of attention, because they were basically doubling their sales every year for 8 years. I'd be willing to bet that no car company since Henry Ford himself introduced the model T, has ever come anywhere close to that. But "big volatility" always works both ways!

 

[WoodChuckDad]

MSN

www.msn.com

Things are undoubtedly bad at Tesla. Its sales are dwindling. Its profits are plunging, as is its share price. There are regular protests outside its showrooms. The Cybertruck is a flop. And somehow, it’s actually a lot worse than that.

Share price is up. I know, because I’ve been watching and waiting for it to drop again

 

[NoTrespassing]

Share price is up. I know, because I’ve been watching and waiting for it to drop again

Now's your chance Down 3% today.

 

[dfkrug]

I'd be willing to bet that no car company since Henry Ford himself introduced the model T, has ever come anywhere close to that.

Good reference. Ford got his economy of scale down so that he could sell cars profitably for under $300 at the end of the Model T life.

Same for Tesla. He is able to make his current best-seller for better and better margins. And new products are on the horizon. I imagine the about-to-be-released self-driving taxi will be very successful.

 

[NoTrespassing]

Good reference. Ford got his economy of scale down so that he could sell cars profitably for under $300 at the end of the Model T life.

Same for Tesla. He is able to make his current best-seller for better and better margins. And new products are on the horizon. I imagine the about-to-be-released self-driving taxi will be very successful.

What are the margins on his current best-seller? Overall margins are way down since 2022 from what I read and posted.

 

[Btown]

It should be noted that Tesla sold more than 2 times as many Cyber Trucks as Ford sold F-150 Lightning trucks. Yet there is no "Is the Ford Lightning truck a failure?" thread ?
Or is that just a given? Common knowledge, not worthy of discussion?

That was over the first year of CT production and it was by 5,000 or so trucks and it had in the beginning a huge demand. Sales have fallen. Last quarter Ford sold more Lightnings than Tesla CT. Ford sold 7,287 compared to Tesla 6,406 from Jan to end of March. The CT fad has slowed down a lot. I said from the beginning when they announced the real price sales will be pretty low. There is not a huge demand for $80,000-100,000 1/2 ton pickup trucks. There are some sales, but there is a lot of competition there. Most of the trucks Ford sells are XL and XLT models. They make up around 60% of sales. Teslas new RWD CT strips out so much for such little in price. I don’t see it being a big seller.

 

[Btown]

Agreed. Tesla gets a lot of attention, because they were basically doubling their sales every year for 8 years. I'd be willing to bet that no car company since Henry Ford himself introduced the model T, has ever come anywhere close to that. But "big volatility" always works both ways!

Tesla sold fewer vehicles in 2024 than in 2023. That rate of growth they had was unsustainable. Most of the growth was going from making a few expensive vehicles to cheaper more affordable ones. Now that has happened, sales have leveled off, even after adding the CT to the line up. The S and X basically do not sell very well. Now if Tesla can create demand by offering lower price vehicles than others can, they can see some growth. There are a lot of hurdles with a self driving vehicle. Is Tesla there yet? I personally don’t think so. Elon has been saying they have been there since 2018. It’s 7 years and it’s still in Beta form.

 

[dfkrug]

What are the margins on his current best-seller? Overall margins are way down since 2022 from what I read and posted.

Best-selling car in the world (by units) in 2024 was the Model Y, at over a million. Gross margin estimates seem to be 20-25%. And, as the model is maturing, margins get better and prices will drop.

Tho past promises were not met, the Tesla taxi may really be inexpensive since so many features can be deleted. If they make it for under $30K, that may be a game-changer.

 

[jmc]

Boots on the ground report on repairing a wreck CT.

Our Tesla Cybertruck Test Ended With a $58,000 Repair Bill

We planned to test a Tesla Cybertruck for a year and 20,000 miles. But a crash led to a massive repair bill, causing us to offload our Cybertruck several months ahead of schedule.

www.edmunds.com

Spoiler alert: they had to total it.

 

[ruffdog]

Boots on the ground report on repairing a wreck CT.

Our Tesla Cybertruck Test Ended With a $58,000 Repair Bill

We planned to test a Tesla Cybertruck for a year and 20,000 miles. But a crash led to a massive repair bill, causing us to offload our Cybertruck several months ahead of schedule.

www.edmunds.com

Spoiler alert: they had to total it.

End of the article:

"After everything was said and done, we sold the remains of our Cybertruck to online auction site Copart for — deep breath — $8,000.
But, hey, at least our ill-fated Fisker Ocean is no longer No. 1 on the "cars on which we've taken the biggest bath" leaderboard."