Tractors and (upcoming) tariffs?

[bvanek]

Back to tariffs, I guess I'm a touch baffled that so many folks don't believe people are going to do exactly what they said they are going to do. The "10% on china" was "10% on top of the initial proposal of 60% increase across the board" which means 70% total if that lands (so 60% increases for anything from China across the board is currently best case). Maybe the 25% on Canada and Mexico will happen up front.. maybe it'll only be 10% and then ramp up as the retaliatory tariff war lands. I dunno.. but when someone says they're going to do something.. my first tendency is to go ahead and take them at their word.

reciprocal trade is not the doom and gloom you project and there will be many other supporting items in the full package..all quite transparent, what a concept! So maybe you should be thankful for this wide open transparency so you can guess about the future with this information up front ..

Did you build a fallout shelter? Have you prepared for an EMP blackout, cyber attack or sabotage of our infrastructure? just saying;
Do you have kids or grand-kids and are concerned about useful education or a trade that contributes towards supporting themselves instead of being on the taxpayers dime?

Politicians talk, businessmen walk. Running your country at a loss is not a good thing and the country needs assets that don't involve adding to the debt. If the country is mortgaged, so are you. (taxes) ...So there are some pretty smart businessmen thinking outside of this political bureaucracy that created the need for change in the first place.....pretty convinced they will pursue an approach that will likely be much better for us all. The country needs to be fixed and this abrubt change needs to happen sooner than later. It's not so "baffling" if you look at the big picture....the last four years has been a disaster for the rapidly declining middle class. Once the heart and soul of our great nation.

maybe you should worry a bit more about the sabotage of the outgoing admin....purposeful undermining just makes the fix harder for those who want us all to succeed, both as a nation and as individuals.

 

[sunandsand]

Sometimes (sometimes?) governments fail to take the long view, or they deny there is a problem, simply ignore it, or kick it down the road.

Here in Florida we have a program called a CRA (Community Redevelopment Act). Establishing one is essentially a paper-pushing exercise but it has tremendous long term benefits for the community.

Here's how it works. The year the CRA is established is the base line, lets say 2025. The CRA caps the portion of the property taxes that go to the county at 2025. (The CRA can go 20 years.)

As property taxes go up, and they ALWAYS go up, any increase above the 2025 base line goes the the city instead of the county, and the city spends it on things that improve the community. Road improvements, landscaping, better infrastructure, grants to refurbish and update tired, obsolete properties, and more.

This gets especially interesting when there is new construction. Start with an empty field, taxes essentially zip. Build 50 homes, 2026 value $350K each, now you have a tax base that the city can use. County only gets the 2025 baseline on the empty lot, city gets the increase.

After 15 years, those 50 homes are now assessed at probably $750K (maybe more) and taxed accordingly (ouch), county still only gets the 2025 baseline, city gets the increase. (County hates this, too bad, so sad.)

Our local government REFUSED to discuss this or even consider it - and we have over 1,200 new homes permitted. They flat didn't want to hear about it, go away, don't talk about it any more.

There are two cities in this area which implemented CRAs 10 or 15 years ago. They have made an astonishing difference, back then their main streets were all boarded up, no businesses, shrinking tax base, these were dying communities.

Now, both of them are positively jumping. One has a commercial vacancy rate of half of one percent - which is astonishing. The other one has a brand new civic center (and a lot more), all paid for by the CRA, which keeps the tax dollars IN the community instead of letting the county spend it on their pet projects (one of which is a homeless shelter off in the woods where nobody can get to it even if they wanted to, and they don't).

So what happened here? Outgoing city administration was old, tired, set in their ways and bluntly, would be long dead before any change would be noticed. It was easier for them to ignore the problem because they wouldn't be around to see any benefits.

After this last election, we have a new mayor and new commissioners. I was talking to the mayor about this and his response was "Holy ****, we can get HOW much money?" My answer was yes, we can. "Well lets get on it!"

So perhaps we might modify the "term limit" idea to "Are you open to new ideas or do you want to go back to 1950?" Sometimes people get seriously stuck in "the way we've always done it" even though the times and situations have changed, sometimes drastically.

Change is inevitable, you can adapt to it, or perish.

Best Regards,
Mike/Florida

 

[LouNY]

I'm sitting and listening (reading) all this noise about high interest rates and I have to wonder what are they talking about;

They had been trending downward since the peak in the late 70's with a low in 2020-21, and even now they are less then they were in the 60's and early 70's

 

[rScotty]

I'm sitting and listening (reading) all this noise about high interest rates and I have to wonder what are they talking about;
View attachment 1966549
They had been trending downward since the peak in the late 70's with a low in 2020-21, and even now they are less then they were in the 60's and early 70's

Absolutely right. People who complain about "high interest rates today" simply aren't paying attention to historical rates. It's just a matter of education.

 

[Hay Dude]

Absolutely right. People who complain about "high interest rates today" simply aren't paying attention to historical rates. It's just a matter of education.

No, it’s a matter of recency bias.

True they are lower than the early 80’s, but I didn’t buy my first home until nearly 2000, so to me and people in their 40’s-50’s, they seem high.

 

[CloverKnollFarms]

The issue has become the unaffordability of homes. In relation to income, homes are more expensive than in the 1980s. I feel extremely fortunate that we bought and paid for our current acreage and home, in full, in 2018. My daughter will be on the edge of homelessness in Boston for quite a while.
Couple that with people burying themselves in college loans and credit card debt. It's really all encompassing. Higher rates wouldnt hurt so bad if not for record consumer debt, record home prices, and inflation eating away at all other areas.
This is one reason we made hay while the sun was shining. Paid off all debt in 2014, and have banked everything since. I knew the sun wouldnt always shine, and that was the time to set up the future.

 

[CloverKnollFarms]

I look forward to the # of illegal border crossings reported in the new administration. Since there was a threat of tariffs on Mexico if they didn't participate in that mitigation, and it appears they are taking that threat seriously. Meaning... It has a result, and the tariff hasn't been implemented.

Like you, I was once worried Biden would pass a $15/min wage, because he said he would, and I then he didn't. So, we all worry for nothing. Anxiety is just a false vision of a future where God isn't present. Since He is, it's quite pointless. Since I've realized that, life is very peaceful.

 

[rScotty]

Absolutely right. People who complain about "high interest rates today" simply aren't paying attention to historical rates. It's just a matter of education.

No, it’s a matter of recency bias.

True they are lower than the early 80’s, but I didn’t buy my first home until nearly 2000, so to me and people in their 40’s-50’s, they seem high.

Yes. I can see where you would feel that way, and good for you. You timed it well.

I'm a slow learner, but sometime in my 70s it finally dawned on me that our wealthy friends - the ones who just won the election, BTW - are on a whole different time line than the average guy like you or I.

Wealthy families have spare money, which they pass back and forth within their extended family down through the generations. They aren't spending paycheck-to-paycheck in order to eat; they have enough extra so they can time their expenditures and investments depending on the monetary rates.

And since the wealthy families can invest their money over several generations, as long as the rates go one way and then another, any % inflation that is greater than zero insures that they cannot help but make money on the swings. Their advantage is not evil, it is simply having a longer time line to work with than the average working family. A 50 year swing in rates is of little consequence to them, but it is everything to the working family.

None of this makes any difference except for one thing: Financially, any swing in money policy tends to benefits the wealthy, but may or may not benefit anyone else.
It's short vs long term.
rScotty

 

[jyoutz]

I mean, Joe B said he would raise min wage to $15/he when he pushed Bernie out of the race in 2020.

That didn't happen. That's why I don't believe all things. And I also understand the context of the tariffs. I don't ignore the context of them and blindly say they will be implemented. That's intellectually dishonest

Minimum wage is $15 or higher where I live. Not federal: local and state minimum wages.

 

[jyoutz]

No record inflation eating away at that “wonderful time to make money”?

This link shows annual US inflation rates from 1929 to present. There were many periods that had higher inflation than the recent past 5 years. The 1970s were far higher and the 40s saw inflation as high as 18.6%. A historical perspective.

Historical U.S. Inflation Rate by Year: 1929 to 2025

By looking at the inflation rate each year, you can gain insight into how prices changed and how events around the globe impacted the average U.S. consumer.

www.investopedia.com

 

[jyoutz]

Can't think of lots of tariff items for home construction outside from Canadian lumber and Chinese Drywall.

I could be out of date so maybe more is sourced overseas like copper wire and copper pipe?

Home prices are down here but materials still up...

The U.S. has a very robust copper industry so I’d be surprised if much was imported.

 

[jyoutz]

Absolutely right. People who complain about "high interest rates today" simply aren't paying attention to historical rates. It's just a matter of education.

My first mortgage in 1987 was at the market rate of 10.5%.

 

[rumwrks]

So you believe that we were on a good path and heading in the right direction, and you believe Kamala would have been a better choice?

The discussion here is "what effect will tariffs have" not some hypothetical alternative future we won't see,

 

[rumwrks]

The U.S. has a very robust copper industry so I’d be surprised if much was imported.

In 2022 the US exported $812M in refined copper and imported $6.16 Billion worth of which a bit over over 50% was from Chile (I have no idea how we'll treat Chile..).

I think a more apropos statement is that the US had a very robust copper industry but it's very insufficient to meet current demand.

 

[Fishin-4-a-Livin]

The discussion here is "what effect will tariffs have" not some hypothetical alternative future we won't see,

I actually asked you about the past.

Do you think our country is on the right track and that we should just keep on keeping on?

 

[jyoutz]

In 2022 the US exported $812M in refined copper and imported $6.16 Billion worth of which a bit over over 50% was from Chile (I have no idea how we'll treat Chile..).

I think a more apropos statement is that the US had a very robust copper industry but it's very insufficient to meet current demand.

Still a very big industry in Arizona; not sure about the other copper producing areas.

 

[rumwrks]

Still a very big industry in Arizona; not sure about the other copper producing areas.

Arizona is responsible for about 70% of current US copper production, so yeah it's still one of the five C's.