Future of HVAC and industry supply issues.

[ultrarunner]

It’s non compliant. They are already banned from ports and soon rail restrictions…

 

[2manyrocks]

At some point, that begins to arguably burden interstate commerce with California having the West coast shipping ports that import so much of goods into the USA.

 

[ultrarunner]

At some point, that begins to arguably burden interstate commerce with California having the West coast shipping ports that import so much of goods into the USA.

I think that is part of the plan…

Outside of California the only other is really Seattle and greater area… not sure the volume Portland and greater area do?

It’s all about too big to fail and/or ignore.

There are items that cannot be sold or shipped to California end users coming through the port each day…

Wonder for how long?

 

[Yander]

California's grid is already struggling to maintain capacity, is it not. How are they forcing everyone to heat pump, those are big drawl items?

 

[Sigarms]

I think that is part of the plan…

Outside of California the only other is really Seattle and greater area… not sure the volume Portland and greater area do?

It’s all about too big to fail and/or ignore.

There are items that cannot be sold or shipped to California end users coming through the port each day…

Wonder for how long?

Earlier this month took a tour of a large distribution center on the east coast. I asked a question about shipping from California when it comes off the boat and I was informed everything is being done via the Panama canal and the port is less than an hour away from the distribution center.

Kind of scratching my head on the added costs to run a ship that route, but now it makes a litle more sense knocking California out of the picture.

 

[Dftodd]

I did explore rent to own... didn't get far...

In Corp speak capital expenditures are frozen pending lease outcome...

Renting equipment is a daily expense?

I'm thinking this will go to the wire with neither side blinking.

Doubling the ground lease at a time when vacancies are all around and SF values are falling 50% or more sounds crazy...

On the flip side a medical center with 6 operating rooms, MRI, CT and specialty sports medics Ortho providers isn't something easily replaced or simple to relocate.

Maybe the owner is also painted into a corner as their debt service costs are projected to double when their debt finance rate resets from 3.5% to 7 or 8% resulting in doubling debt service...?

Who knows... maybe the lender will foreclose and we can buy the place at 50 cents on the dollar or less?

All of the players 30 years ago are long gone and back then opted to maximize cash flow over controlling destiny rationalizing what happens 30 years down the road is of little concern...

I was the fly on the wall at all the partnership meetings for 33 years as the facility guy...

Stay away from a rental - purchase agreement. That's not really a viable or strategic option.

We have that ability at the rental location I'm in. But we don't bring it up to customers, and actively discourage someone from going with that option.

Either purchase, or rent. Rent to own agreements are similar as to how they work in those sketchy furniture stores.

Every rental purchase agreement I've seen turned into hurt feelings and a peeing contest between both parties.

 

[2manyrocks]

FWIW, I happily burned three tanks of two stroke fuel in my two cycle brush cutter yesterday.

 

[ultrarunner]

Outlaws… I’m in cahoots with scoflaws.

Funny thing is the Fire Chief refuses to enforce saying wild-land open space fuel reduction is number one and OPD doesn’t respond to property crimes so just who would enforce remains to be seen.

Still legal to run a gas powered chain saw so go figure.

I remember automotive refrigerant at 99 cents a can at the auto parts store and now look at the cost and restrictions.

Who needs the stock market when we could have stocked up?

I would happily repurchase my HVAC package units from the 1990’s because the majority of the carrier gas packs are still in service everyday in 2023…

 

[jyoutz]

The reality is California is such a huge market for manufactruers that those manufacturers have to meet what the state decides will meet their requirements, particularly in HVAC.

For better or worse, California in a round about way dictates what will happen with everyone else because of the money.

Personally, I would love it if HVAC manufacturers would say screw it, we aren't selling to you, but that will never happen.

Gas furnaces in HVAC as an example becuase there are gas furnaces that are only made for California (news flash, 80% gas furnaces will cease to exist because of Californina, and over time after I'm dead, I'm certain even 95% or higher gas furnaces will cease to exisit).

How many oil furnaces are sold in California? LOL

My own comment made me look. California leads all 50 states with the highest debt. Suprising enought, NY is second over Texas.

What my dad taught me growing up is never to be in debt. That said, perhaps debt on the state or federal level is different than personal debt.

Oil furnaces? Those are an east coast thing. I’ve never heard of an oil furnace anywhere in the western U.S. Most people who live outside of natural gas service areas heat with either wood, propane, or electric.

 

[2manyrocks]

HVAC manufacturer that I worked with had the attitude that they couldn't tell which units would end up in California so they made all of them to comply with California rules.

One example of the California tag wagging the USA dog is the prop. 65 warning that this product may cause cancer or reproductive harm that manufacturers slap on everything everywhere to the point that it is just an expense to the consumer that no one heeds anywhere. California could mandate a happy face sticker on every product and companies would just raise prices to slap them on.

But I agree with Sigarms that I wish manufacturers would just stop selling in California and say, if you want us to comply with this, the price to you in California to make this product comply with your rule is now much, much higher because we're not allocating the cost of compliance to every buyer of our products in the USA.