Market Watch

[5030]

We aren't 100% debt free but the incurred debt we have is easily manageable and it's all wrapped up in the rental properties we own. Farm and land is free and clear (except for taxes) but then, you default on RE taxes and the governing body you fall under will foreclose on you and sell it off which is, far as I'm concerned BS. All that RE tax money does is go towards local government so they can pee it away.... and they do.

 

[tacticalturnip]

That sure is something government knows how to do, local and national, they love spending our money.

 

[jyoutz]

You're 100% correct.

I work in traffic data collection and processing. I've been doing this for over 20 years. What I've noticed is that there is a direct correlation between traffic volume and condition of the economy. Makes perfect sense, right? A prime example is 2008. When that recession hit, traffic volumes went down. People stopped taking vacations, stopped driving to the store, etc. because money was tight. Trucking companies couldn't handle the increased fuel prices so many of them folded and the ones that survived cut down on miles. Economy goes sour = less miles traveled. Well, this time around it's the opposite. The economy is terrible, goods and services are up 90%, interest rates have tripled, fuel is super expensive, and yet what I'm seeing is MORE traffic on roads. Direct opposite of how things have been always in the past.

My theory is that after the blue party stole 3 years of peoples' lives from them, when the public was allowed to resume life again they were ready to do all the things they had planned to do. Build a house, start a business, buy a vehicle, go on vacation, etc. People view this as time to make up for those 3 years they'll never get back, and the condition of the economy won't deter them.

Now, in the end this will be a major problem because debt is reaching levels we've never seen before. But in the short term nobody cares what interest rates are or how much something costs, they just want to return to living life.

I realize the original thread may have been shut down due to political chatter, but you really can't discuss this topic without it. This entire mess was created by shutting down the economy, which is something no government should EVER do, and there was one party leading that charge. It is what it is. And now we all suffer for it, with the worst yet to come.

Just some context on mortgage interest rates. When I bought my first house in 1987, my mortgage was at the prevailing rate of 10%. My second house in 1991 was at 7.5%. Home construction and sales were going brisk during those times. The <3% rates we became accustomed to are not the long term norms.

 

[Rdrcr]

Messicks is raking in money by the dumptruck load.
I just got a n invoice for a visit by one of their techs to help me fix my baler.
The bill was just insane. I can’t afford them anymore.

My Kubota dealer is the same.

Last weekend, I had to attend a funeral for my good friend’s dad who recently passed. My friend inherited his Kubota L3901 tractor but, couldn’t find the keys. On my way to the funeral, I stopped by the Kubota dealer to buy him some keys to the tractor. I paid $22 for a pair of keys! I don’t know what they normally cost, or what they’ve cost in the past but, $22 is insane! I’m gonna have to start shopping around. I’m happy to help out a friend but, my dealer certainly isn’t helping me out.

Mike

 

[5030]

I paid $22 for a pair of keys! I don’t know what they normally cost, or what they’ve cost in the past but, $22 is insane! I’m gonna have to start shopping around. I’m happy to help out a friend but, my dealer certainly isn’t helping me out.

Had an issue with one of my climate control relays and Kubota wanted 80 bucks for it so I went shopping and found it on Digikey for 10 bucks. Needless to say I bought 2 of them. I'll keep that in mind (keys). I won't be loosing them any time soon...

 

[Tractorable]

Now if Kubota would get rid of that treadle pedal they’d increase their market share by 10%!

 

[Snobdds]

Just some context on mortgage interest rates. When I bought my first house in 1987, my mortgage was at the prevailing rate of 10%. My second house in 1991 was at 7.5%. Home construction and sales were going brisk during those times. The <3% rates we became accustomed to are not the long term norms.

Prices were not 6x income back then. Now they are.

Prices were about 2.5x income in the 80's. That is a huge difference.

This is why the baby boomers generated historic asset level wealth. In the 80's when interest rates spiked, people were still able to buy due to low asset prices. Once the interest rates came back down, the boomers were able to refinance and reinvest the equity in a relatively cheap house. Most boomers were able to pay off their house well before the 30 year time frame. It allowed that generation to be the first to buy record number of second homes.

There is nothing between the 80's and today that one can draw parallels from. The two periods are drastically different. Young kids today will never be able to do what their parents did financially. They will be stuck buying an expensive house and deal with expensive financing.

 

[jyoutz]

Prices were not 6x income back then. Now they are.

Prices were about 2.5x income in the 80's. That is a huge difference.

This is why the baby boomers generated historic asset level wealth. In the 80's when interest rates spiked, people were still able to buy due to low asset prices. Once the interest rates came back down, the boomers were able to refinance and reinvest the equity in a relatively cheap house. Most boomers were able to pay off their house well before the 30 year time frame. It allowed that generation to be the first to buy record number of second homes.

There is nothing between the 80's and today that one can draw parallels from. The two periods are drastically different. Young kids today will never be able to do what their parents did financially. They will be stuck buying an expensive house and deal with expensive financing.

Very true. My comment was about interest rates. Interest rates are at their normal levels; housing prices are hugely inflated. Artificially low interest rates for years is one of the causes for housing price inflation.

 

[rScotty]

Now if Kubota would get rid of that treadle pedal they’d increase their market share by 10%!

Kubota makes several configurations of treadle pedal. I wouldn't want the heel and toe type they put on lots of compacts. Maybe be they do that because of limited space.

The treadle on our M59 works by sliding & swiveling the front of your foot - It's much the same motion as the two-button F/R on a lot of compact tractors.

Someone said that the advantage to the treadle is not being able to hit both F & R at the same time.

 

[Snobdds]

In economics, there is a thing called the natural interest rate. It's not a fixed number, but it fluctuates with the up and downs of the economy. It's a rate that does not allow economic boom, and it's a rate that does not allow economic bust. A good rule of thumb is around 4.5-5%. We have had 20+ years of interest rates below the natural interest rate. We have created an asset bubble so big, when it pops it's going to decimate a lot of people that were over leveraged with cheap debt.

There are a lot of RE boys that buy a house and then use that house as collateral to buy another one and so on...That is leverage and it's going to go boom here soon. The other problem is the new insurance that lets you use every asset you have as collateral. House, cars, furniture, guns, everything. Then you can take your "equity" and go buy RE with cash. You hear about all these cash buyers...they are using this new insurance product to do it. Nobody knows how that blows up because it's new. We'll see.