New Tractor Sales Are Declining

[Cahaba Valley Farm]

It looks like 2022 (black) is tracking pretty close to the 5 year average (red)

View attachment 768001

That's a good observation.

 

[rScotty]

I grew up on a farm in the 50s and 60s. I take personal offense in you calling us ignorant. Your ignorance is fully displayed in that comment Sir.

I find that funny, ovrszd. But I'm not sure that everyone will understand your humor.

 

[5030]

One man's ceiling is another man's floor.

 

[Torvy]

One man's ceiling is another man's floor.

Sometimes you're the windshield, sometimes the bug.

 

[arrow]

There are a couple caveats to this generalization: The smallish tractor company I work for ordered about 50 tractors in Feb 2021. They only just started tricking in August of 2022. We sold 38 of these tractors before they landed.
In March of 2022, the owner ordered 30 more tractors. They are coming in now and we have a fully stocked tractor yard just like we did before covid.
Sales at this yard have been excellent and if anything, an actual upturn unprecedented in its sales history.

I think the factors involved here are to do with regional consumer need, pricing and availability of product.
Those are factors that continue to hold true no matter what market fluctuations may occur.
.
We are getting customers from further and further away as a result.

 

[Cahaba Valley Farm]

I stumbled across this article tonight and thought I would share it as it pertains to the recessionary environment that we are headed off into. It was a very interesting read and dealt with the recession of '08 and '09 but it also reveals the difference in business philosophy between Kubota and Deere. I hope you will find value in it.

Kubota: New Products 'Earn' Dealers Business

Farm equipment market today feels a little bit like the '80s.

www.farm-equipment.com

 

[rScotty]

I stumbled across this article tonight and thought I would share it as it pertains to the recessionary environment that we are headed off into. It was a very interesting read and dealt with the recession of '08 and '09 but it also reveals the difference in business philosophy between Kubota and Deere. I hope you will find value in it.

Kubota: New Products 'Earn' Dealers Business

Farm equipment market today feels a little bit like the '80s.

www.farm-equipment.com

Did you post the right article? I didn't see anything in there about Deere. Our yellow Deere dealer is doing well. We avoid the green JD dealership so don't have any idea about them. Kubota is doing well. Lots of tractors and lots of sales. Not a used machine on the lot.

I'm sorry to hear that you are expecting a recession where you live. Where we are it doesn't seem to be headed that way. It's a big country and varied. Here in the Western US financial things seems to be chuggng along just fine. Everyone is unhappy about prices, but it hasn't slowed purchases down. Gas costs too much, but that hasn't slowed driving either. Housing has fallen 10% this fall, but it was up 20% last year so we knew it would. The older folks I talk to are spending savings - but realize that to be part of a normal financial cycle.
The important thing is that people looking for work have their choice of jobs.

rScotty

 

[scootr]

Did you post the right article? I didn't see anything in there about Deere. Our yellow Deere dealer is doing well. We avoid the green JD dealership so don't have any idea about them. Kubota is doing well. Lots of tractors and lots of sales. Not a used machine on the lot.

I'm sorry to hear that you are expecting a recession where you live. Where we are it doesn't seem to be headed that way. It's a big country and varied. Here in the Western US financial things seems to be chuggng along just fine. Everyone is unhappy about prices, but it hasn't slowed purchases down. Gas costs too much, but that hasn't slowed driving either. Housing has fallen 10% this fall, but it was up 20% last year so we knew it would. The older folks I talk to are spending savings - but realize that to be part of a normal financial cycle.
The important thing is that people looking for work have their choice of jobs.

rScotty

If you do not see a downturn in your local economy gird your loins. The world is in a downturned economy and sooner or later we all will see some affects locally regardless of how well we are doing now. IMHO


Kubota said "We're trying to hold our market share and gain a little bit. This seems to be the only target to chase in this market. If the economy continues on its current course, it will be another tough year for small tractors, and probably impossible to sell more than we did last year. We'll just be chasing the wind."

 

[rScotty]

If you do not see a downturn in your local economy gird your loins. The world is in a downturned economy and sooner or later we all will see some affects locally regardless of how well we are doing now. IMHO


Kubota said "We're trying to hold our market share and gain a little bit. This seems to be the only target to chase in this market. If the economy continues on its current course, it will be another tough year for small tractors, and probably impossible to sell more than we did last year. We'll just be chasing the wind."

Keep in mind that article was written almost 15 years ago and during the depths of a major recession. It's more than a little bit dated. Today isn't even close to then.

Those who watch may notice that people who are making money don't talk about it much. That causes articles and discussions to focus disproportionately on the negative side of the economy. Focusing on the negative doesn't mean it is going that way, it just means the downside gets more headlines.

I see the economic future differently now than I used to.
rScotty

 

[scootr]

Keep in mind that article was written almost 15 years ago and during the depths of a major recession. It's more than a little bit dated. Today isn't even close to then.

Those who watch may notice that people who are making money don't talk about it much. That causes articles and discussions to focus disproportionately on the negative side of the economy. Focusing on the negative doesn't mean it is going that way, it just means the downside gets more headlines.

I see the economic future differently now than I used to.
rScotty

The middle class is losing buying power and the cost of borrowed money is rising right now. That means the consumer is losing the ability to consume products and services.
How is a weak less capable and confident consumer not negatively affecting the economy now as it did in 2008?
Explain to me how the economy now is so different than 1980, 1990, 2008.