Battery based electric vehicles of today and tomorrow.

[Gale Hawkins]

I’ll happily go on record and say Tesla all by itself will make more profit in the next 20 years than all those companies combined. By a lot.

By a country mile if Tesla's net annual profits are $1 trillion+ as some financial firms predict by 2040.

 

[Gale Hawkins]

While currently this is not cost effective technology I am impressed enough to follow it's development. Marry this to the solid state hydrogen technology above would be like cooking with gas.

 

[Fuddy1952]

Does anyone realize all the hurtles that must be overcome?
It's one thing to make a prediction that Tesla and other EV car, truck, tractor (road & farm), motorcycle, etc. sales will double each year going forward.
What you have to consider are all of the ramifications. Basically the end of fossil fuels and coal. The present electric grid system by some estimates must be upgraded quadrupled. That means HV towers, solar farms, wind turbines everywhere and I mean no more mountain landscape but a landscape of towers, windmills, nuclear plants, etc.
Not to mention all of the "buggy whip" gas stations (and repair garages) either destroyed (you must remove all those nasty buried tanks by EPA standards). In place will be a myriad of charging stations, public and private (at apartment and townhouse complexes), motels, restaurants, homes, businesses, etc., etc., etc.
All this with the (approval?) of local, state and federal agencies.
Advocates and predictions may be correct...by 2050 we may be like the Jetsons in self-flying "cars". We may have colonized Mars (which we'll immediately fudge up like we did our planet Earth).
I retired from a company I had eight years ago, 43 years of consumer electronics repair, primarily television and yes...that exact buggy whip reference was applied to that business as well. With good reason! Who in their right mind would have a television repaired today? Not with stores open 24/7 and a large set can be bought for cheap.
The irony is this save the planet ecologically sound idea is to manufacture and sell everything: even cars with disposability in mind with the realization that from start to end of it's life (manufacturing plant and equipment, the product itself, maintenance, any attempt at "recycling", and disposal) CREATES pollution!
I can forsee if a federal EV mandate were imposed, if people were forced into going electric and no longer able to own/operate/purchase petroleum fuel for their car, truck, tractor, fuel oil, natural gas or propane furnace, burn wood, there would be another Civil War.

 

[airbiscuit]

I think we will see more and more renewables for decentralization, peak demand and clean energy. We will also see natural gas continue to replace dirty coal, because it is cheaper, less capital intensive to build, cleaner and more flexible that dirty coal. EVs will change the supply structure, but that's not necessarily bad.

 

[Gale Hawkins]

Fuddy1952 living in fear of the future is not truly living in my experience. You are in a panic over nothing at all.

Dad bought 40 acres to start farming in 1951. He had next to no equipment. Our neighbor had no tractor but had a team of mules that pulled a one row cultivate and a two row corn planter that he would loan to dad many years after tractors came onto the market.

Yes gas powered lawnmowers are going away for financial reasons. No one forced me to buy an electric lawnmower but it made sense in my case.

We all are aware car makers are abandoning ICE powered vehicles per their press releases.

The earth is NOT in need of saving. Global cooling and warming cycles are millions of years old.

Ocean levels have risen 400 feet in the current global warming cycle and since not all of the pasting ice age ice has melted sea levels are expected to rise more.

The option to not living in changing times does NOT appeal to me so bring on the changes.

 

[Fuddy1952]

I have to take issue with a few of your statements:
"Fuddy1952 living in fear of the future is not truly living in my experience. You are in a panic over nothing at all."
I'm a realist. I'm looking at the big picture, not that new is always better. I try looking at any possible agenda or purpose of change.
How will switching to EV affect our electric bill. Think it will be higher?
"The earth is NOT in need of saving. Global cooling and warming cycles are millions of years old."
With a PhD Geologist brother I understand this...but THIS is the big fallacy.
Switching to electric means going green.
Isn't that the reason? Petroleum and coal are dirty we're to believe.
Why is gas almost double what it was two years ago?
No matter what we do (pollution measures), what about Russia, China, India?
"The option to not living in changing times does NOT appeal to me so bring on the changes. "
Really?
I'm sorry but I can't agree by looking in the entirety America and the world is better now than in the past. Some better, some worse.
Rather than accept change why not question it? It's not paranoia but looking at the big picture.

 

[Gale Hawkins]

I have to take issue with a few of your statements:
"Fuddy1952 living in fear of the future is not truly living in my experience. You are in a panic over nothing at all."
I'm a realist. I'm looking at the big picture, not that new is always better. I try looking at any possible agenda or purpose of change.
How will switching to EV affect our electric bill. Think it will be higher?
"The earth is NOT in need of saving. Global cooling and warming cycles are millions of years old."
With a PhD Geologist brother I understand this...but THIS is the big fallacy.
Switching to electric means going green.
Isn't that the reason? Petroleum and coal are dirty we're to believe.
Why is gas almost double what it was two years ago?
No matter what we do (pollution measures), what about Russia, China, India?
"The option to not living in changing times does NOT appeal to me so bring on the changes. "
Really?
I'm sorry but I can't agree by looking in the entirety America and the world is better now than in the past. Some better, some worse.
Rather than accept change why not question it? It's not paranoia but looking at the big picture.

Fuddy1952 did you wake up this morning as Pro EV as you were late last night?

 

[Gale Hawkins]

https://www.popsci.com/story/environment/wood-pellets-sustainable/

Climate Change has been going on for millions of years and I expect it will continue for millions of years after humans are extinct. The concept of thinking man controls the climate boggles my mind. Our egos are over inflated and always in Fight Mode it seems.

EVs are replacing ICE vehicles because they're lowering the cost of transportation and health care. Governments are not highly concerned about the cost of transportation but ALL are concerned about runaway health care cost. The Pandemic is advancing to move to EVs by 20+ years.2045 projections may be realistic by 2025 in a few countries. The freight train has left the station and traveling at a high rate of speed so be careful at the train crossings in your i c e.

 

[Fuddy1952]

"EVs are replacing ICE vehicles because they're lowering the cost of transportation and health care. Governments are not highly concerned about the cost of transportation but ALL are concerned about runaway health care cost."
So which statement is correct, lower cost of transportation or lower health care cost?

Car& Driver: "According to Quartz, the average cost of a new car in June 2019 in the U.S. was $36,600. This was a 2% increase from the year before. However, according to data from Cox Automotive, the average cost of an electric vehicle decreased from $64,300 to $55,600: a 13.4% decrease from the year before."
New ICE cars start at $15,600 (Kelly)
New EV car starts at $30,750 (Edmunds) Mini Cooper...110m range.

Why did fuel increase so much within last year? (Diesel $3.25 to $4.50/gal in LA).

So you believe someone (car manufacturers or the government? Cares about lowering your transportation and health care costs?
Really???).

Car & Driver: 3 year (45,000 mile cost analysis):
Mini: $0.0853 per mile/ $3,839
Mini Electric: $0.066 per mile/ $2,970
Hyundai Kona: $0.0909 per mile /$4,091
Hyundai Kona Electric: $0.066 per mile / $2,970
So over three years a $1K (roughly) fuel savings.
However!:
Two considerations not in the statistics are initial cost (roughly double EV vs ICE). That $15,000 initial savings could be invested more than offsetting that $335/ year savings.
Also unknown will be the inevitable electricity cost increase (assuming our friend uncle Sam simply doesn't print more money making this all part of the infrastructure package). If illegal immigrants get free stuff maybe we will too.
EVs are only as clean as the grid they are charged from and battery disposal or recycling to be considered.
Bottom line is in the future I'd much rather have a choice, making my own decisions rather than a mandate forcing things down my throat. All situations aren't equal.

 

[Oaktree]

I’ll happily go on record and say Tesla all by itself will make more profit in the next 20 years than all those companies combined. By a lot.

By a country mile if Tesla's net annual profits are $1 trillion+ as some financial firms predict by 2040.

Don't know what you guys are smoking, but it must be the really good stuff.

 

[airbiscuit]

It won't be a light switch (all or nothing) moment, but EVs will continue to gain market share. it won't be all that long before EVs are the vehicle of choice for those under 40. ICE vehicles will remain around long enough for us old timers to hang on to, but it's possible we may get an EV as well for our grocery getter. Change is hard but, but there's no doubt about their future.

 

[RoyJackson]

It won't be a light switch (all or nothing) moment, but EVs will continue to gain market share. it won't be all that long before EVs are the vehicle of choice for those under 40. ICE vehicles will remain around long enough for us old timers to hang on to, but it's possible we may get an EV as well for our grocery getter. Change is hard but, but there's no doubt about their future.

My opinion is, regardless of age, it's going to depend a lot on where one lives...
EV may be good for urban and, possibly, suburban folks...maybe not for those who live in apartment complexes though (limited recharging stations in such complexes).
However, those of us who live in more rural areas...EV's may not be such a good idea. SO, I expect ICE to be around for a long time to come

 

[California]

This interview with Joe Justice has motivated me to buy my first share of TESLA stock ASAP.

I hope you bought it then, 11/17 when it closed at $1089. I see today (mid-day 11/22) it's $1171.50 and up 285% YTD.

 

[Gale Hawkins]

I hope you bought it then, 11/17 when it closed at $1089. I see today (mid-day 11/22) it's $1171.50 and up 285% YTD.

I missed that window but this morning I did meet the IRA guy who is going to focus on the accounting side of his business so I will soon be managing my own account.

 

[Gale Hawkins]

Don't know what you guys are smoking, but it must be the really good stuff.

Do you have some different data to support your post?

 

[Larry Caldwell]

My opinion is, regardless of age, it's going to depend a lot on where one lives...
EV may be good for urban and, possibly, suburban folks...maybe not for those who live in apartment complexes though (limited recharging stations in such complexes).
However, those of us who live in more rural areas...EV's may not be such a good idea. SO, I expect ICE to be around for a long time to come

Probably not good in rural Texas or the Midwest. The longest trip I make regularly is to my doc, 75 miles away, so any EV with a 200 mile range would be fine, and the doc has free charging stations in the parking lot. Most daily trips are only 40 or 50 miles round trip.

The only down side is giving up the open road. It's over 1000 miles to the Grand Canyon from here, and my travel plans also include avoiding freeways as much as possible. In my world, well over half the fun is getting there. I think it's going to be a long time before that little country store at a crossroads in the middle of nowhere has a charging station. The infrastructure build will start in high traffic areas.

I don't think dinosaur juice will ever go away. I do not believe in electric long haul semis, which often run 24/7. Local delivery trucks could be electric. I do not believe in electric farm tractors, which also often run 24/7. It may sit in the shed 6 month out of the year, but when it's go time it's go time. I see no reason why we can't electrify our rail system. Europe did it decades ago. I just heard that there is an EV bus service running up I-5 from Eugene to Seattle, but have no other info on it. That would be an impressive run if they can do it without a layover to recharge. Running the 1200 miles to LA would be tougher. Maybe they could do a Pony Express trick and switch all the passengers and luggage to a different bus in the middle of the run?

If I consult my crystal gonad, I think electricity will replace a lot of fossil fuels, but not all. I have no objection to developing a new transportation technology, but think the utopians will come up against real world constraints that will limit their ideological purity.

I believe the EV "planners" are ignoring physics.

 

[goeduck]

While currently this is not cost effective technology I am impressed enough to follow it's development. Marry this to the solid state hydrogen technology above would be like cooking with gas.

Me too. Hydrogen 8 Track Tape Decks in the future?

 

[Fuddy1952]

My hero...

 

[Jstpssng]

My hero...

Old news though. According to his brother, in 1989 he was poisoned by two men purporting to be Belgian investors.

Dang, I went looking for a way to twist it into murder and somebody beat me to it!

 

[Gale Hawkins]

Elon Musk has been saying this for years. We know where we want to go but we are not there yet.

Comic Relief Department: Shell CEO Says The Best Way To Finance Clean Energy Is To Consume More Oil - CleanTechnica

Support CleanTechnica's work through a Substack subscription or on Stripe. Or support our Kickstarter campaign! Originally posted on EVANNEX. By Charles Morris A few years ago, when electric vehicles were considered an R&D project, the fossil fuel interests had little to say about them. Now that...

cleantechnica.com