Retirement Planning - Lessons Learned

[ultrarunner]

So it's hopeless?

The population will grow until sustainability is breached and then Armageddon?

Many have predicted demise in my lifetime... population bomb, peak oil, nuclear winter, coming ice age, etc...

I don't have answers other than be part of the solution... pick up after yourself, find better ways of doing things, be more efficient... etc...

Seeing gas over $5 a gallon and as high as 5.50 would have caused riots in the street... now, barely a peep so far...

I do think a push to Law and Order is coming back... cities burning with zero law enforcement response is a wake up call some are just hearing for the first time...

No time to deal with real issues yet school boards can debate a historic mural for years and decide a school named after a president is offensive...

There simply isn't enough rural to absorb everyone..

 

[Torvy]

NEWS FLASH: Inflation is essentially the cost of perpetual growth on a finite planet. Growth WILL lead us to and over the edge. No matter how efficient we are, how "hard working" we are, how "inventive" we are, as long as we push growth (which is what gets most of us "retirement" funds- pensions, "returns" etc.) we are pushing toward hyperinflation (the breaking point).

As "savvy" as so many "economists" might be, they're operating on top of a false premise (perpetual growth on a finite planet is possible).

So, there is NO "solution" as long as there's growth. One's position on how to shuffle the deck chairs mostly only identifies one's sense of empathy...

Just, no. Inflation and growth are not tied together. We had decades of growth with little inflation. Inflation is a product of rising costs without a corresponding rise in productivity. The spike is almost directly a result of the minimum wage.

 

[goeduck]

Just, no. Inflation and growth are not tied together. We had decades of growth with little inflation. Inflation is a product of rising costs without a corresponding rise in productivity. The spike is almost directly a result of the minimum wage.

Inflation tied to productivity in the private sector in this country........we are in huge trouble.

Already has one hand tied behind its back.

 

[Fuddy1952]

People should not receive a check sitting at home on their behind. I've never understood this "living wage" mentality. Able bodied people need to work, help wanted signs are everywhere.
My grandparents lived next door, they and my parents lived through The Great Depression, you should hear their stories.

Here's a good tool : Inflation Calculator | Find US Dollar's Value from 1913-2021

1971 I made $1.50/hr=$10.16/hr today
Worked my way through college (just A.A.S.)
1978 $3.50/hr.=$14.73/hr today
1979 I started a business (first few years too embarrassed to say how little I made). Yes wife worked...for me!
1980 I bought house $42,000=$140,000 today. That $140K house nicer that what I bought...but I worked hard fixing it up. I made payments & utilities myself. $400/month mortgage at 14% (FOURTEEN %!).
Terrified I spoke to grandfather who said get a cigar box, put $20/day in it. That made it easy...I paid house off fully in 3 (three) years by paying more each month working extra.

Recently we were in our local Lowes. Help wanted signs all over. Cashier asks "need a job? We start you $15/hr no experience plus a $500 bonus once hired".

I'm 69 now. I needed a truck. Yes I could buy new but instead a 1993 F-150 300/six 4 speed 200K miles. It's great, does everything a trucks supposed to do. $2,000.

Modern people have no clue what hard work is.
I'm ready for my evisceration.

 

[Steppenwolfe]

When I was in High School I knew I HAD TO go to college if I was to get out of southern, white trash poverty.

When I got to college, I knew I HAD TO pay for it myself, 'cause no one else was.

When I graduated from college I knew I HAD TO add some skill sets to earn a good living.

When I had my first job I knew I HAD TO become self employed if I didn't want to be under someone else's thumb.

When I finally did start my own business at 23 I knew I HAD TO succeed if I was going to be able to feed my family.

Now... 40 years later... Wifey and I are in a good place, and I don't HAVE TO do anything... except get up every morning and keep at it like I have for the last 50 years of my life. Shoot, that's the EASY part...

 

[DieselBound]

Exactly. And don't forget that there is a "tipping point" when wages go up enough that businesses can afford to automate tasks or streamline products/processes so they do not need as many expensive workers.

Businesses are ALWAYS looking to automate. They're encouraged to do so: it's called CAPITAL EQUIPMENT.

I worked for an international corporation and went through several "upgrades." It always sought to automate, for the sake of precision less than escaping payment of wages, but the results on labor was the same.

I don't pretend to know of any "solution:" I'm very leery of anyone who does proclaim to "know."

Our trajectory was fairly well explained by Lewis Mumford's The Myth of the Machine.

 

[DieselBound]

So it's hopeless?

The population will grow until sustainability is breached and then Armageddon?

Many have predicted demise in my lifetime... population bomb, peak oil, nuclear winter, coming ice age, etc...

I don't have answers other than be part of the solution... pick up after yourself, find better ways of doing things, be more efficient... etc...

Seeing gas over $5 a gallon and as high as 5.50 would have caused riots in the street... now, barely a peep so far...

I do think a push to Law and Order is coming back... cities burning with zero law enforcement response is a wake up call some are just hearing for the first time...

No time to deal with real issues yet school boards can debate a historic mural for years and decide a school named after a president is offensive...

There simply isn't enough rural to absorb everyone..

Yup, not enough rural to absorb everyone! Most trenchant way to paint the reality. See the Bryant quote below: rural has to support both itself and cities.

Best definition of hope I'd run across: hope is a longing for a future condition over which you have no agency; it means you are essentially powerless.

More law and order? Yeah, it'll work until it doesn't. I'd like to think that our government would first step up and act lawfully! Power assures an imbalance (be it via govt or business). Who watches the watchmen... (govt and business are teaming up to control our ability to criticize them)

It's a hard one for people to swallow the fact that we've been practicing self-deception: nature IS deceptive, and humans ARE OF nature. Simple math explains it to us. We're attempting to "solve" our growth dilemma through technology (rocketing to space), but that's a pretty big crap-shoot. Lots of religions suggest that we're stuck in "misery" until we're released into space/heaven. There's a theme here...

Wealth is through natural resources. Humans can "add value," but the core/driver value is always a given natural resource.

Burn down your cities and leave our farms, and your cities will spring up again as if by magic; but destroy our farms and the grass will grow in the streets of every city in the country. -- William Jennings Bryant

 

[Larry Caldwell]

A minimum wage indexed to inflation leads to hyperinflation.

You cannot artificially increase wages to magically change the basics laws of supply and demand.

I don't accept that as factual. In the past, hyperinflation has been caused from the top, not the bottom. The first trigger to hyperinflation was Johnson's "guns and butter" waging a war and trying to build a Great Society without raising taxes. Then Nixon took us off the gold standard. The result was a rapid drop in the value of the dollar. Then the Arab oil embargo hit, a reaction to the devaluation of the dollar in combination with the US decision to resupply ******. The price of crude oil quadrupled and so did the price of real estate. Carter got one term of misery, and by the time Reagan took office the dollar was in free fall. Welcome to hyperinflation. The poor schmuck working for minimum wage gets blamed for it because, obviously, America can't afford to feed and house its workers.

Several states have increased the minimum wage and indexed it to inflation. Supply and demand survived just fine.

 

[DieselBound]

Also keep in mind that "inflation" can be two different things: 1) Amount of money in circulation (policy driven; govt and banks); 2) Price inflation (could be due to policy and or supply-demand).

Fun exercise: Figure out what is going to happen when the USD loses its reserve currency status.

 

[Fuddy1952]

When I was in High School I knew I HAD TO go to college if I was to get out of southern, white trash poverty.

When I got to college, I knew I HAD TO pay for it myself, 'cause no one else was.

When I graduated from college I knew I HAD TO add some skill sets to earn a good living.

When I had my first job I knew I HAD TO become self employed if I didn't want to be under someone else's thumb.

When I finally did start my own business at 23 I knew I HAD TO succeed if I was going to be able to feed my family.

Now... 40 years later... Wifey and I are in a good place, and I don't HAVE TO do anything... except get up every morning and keep at it like I have for the last 50 years of my life. Shoot, that's the EASY part...

Now. How do we get the young generation to adopt this (and my) work ethic? Before my Dad passed 6 years ago I thanked him for giving me food and shelter but the best thing he did was as a kid I wanted a bicycle and a paper route paid for it. My first car I worked at a service station $50/week to buy it ('66 Rambler American and still have it).
People appreciate things they have to work for.
I ran service calls for over 40 years, great seeing how people lived. Section eight houses and apartments people didn't take care of...no incentive to.

 

[Torvy]

Also keep in mind that "inflation" can be two different things: 1) Amount of money in circulation (policy driven; govt and banks); 2) Price inflation (could be due to policy and or supply-demand).

Fun exercise: Figure out what is going to happen when the USD loses its reserve currency status.

We are in the midst of both right now. Just, FYi, I actually teach economics. I fully understand what is happening and how wage inflation drives prices.

We cannot really discuss your last point as that wou!d veer from an economics discussion to a political one.

 

[Torvy]

I don't accept that as factual. In the past, hyperinflation has been caused from the top, not the bottom. The first trigger to hyperinflation was Johnson's "guns and butter" waging a war and trying to build a Great Society without raising taxes. Then Nixon took us off the gold standard. The result was a rapid drop in the value of the dollar. Then the Arab oil embargo hit, a reaction to the devaluation of the dollar in combination with the US decision to resupply ******. The price of crude oil quadrupled and so did the price of real estate. Carter got one term of misery, and by the time Reagan took office the dollar was in free fall. Welcome to hyperinflation. The poor schmuck working for minimum wage gets blamed for it because, obviously, America can't afford to feed and house its workers.

Several states have increased the minimum wage and indexed it to inflation. Supply and demand survived just fine.

Wonderful thing, America, you can believe as you wish. Facts, however, are a thing. The US has never experienced hyperinflation. What you are describing about the Nixon/Carter era was Stagflation. This was supposed to be impossible according to Keynes, who erroneously convinced generations of politicians that it was possible for government to spend its way out of recession.

Taxes are not really a factor in inflation as you describe the Great Society. Whether the government raises taxes or not, increasing the money supply is one way to spur inflation. Ultimately, it was Johnson's Great Society that led to the problems during the Nixon era...Nixon just made it worse by ignoring his economists, including Milton Friedman.

One reason the US has not experienced hyperinflation is that the minimum wage is not pegged to inflation. By definition, that would cause an ever expanding upward spiral in inflation. This is not really a debatable fact. It is exacting like an infinite loop in a computer program, if wages rise, then prices rise to pay them, then inflation indexes wages, which increase prices...ad infinitum.

For examples of hyperinflation, see modern day Venezuela, post WWI Germany, or post WWII Hungary.

 

[DieselBound]

We are in the midst of both right now. Just, FYi, I actually teach economics. I fully understand what is happening and how wage inflation drives prices.

We cannot really discuss your last point as that wou!d veer from an economics discussion to a political one.

Like economics isn't driven by politics?

We talk about the government causing inflation (due to policies/programs) but we can't discuss politics? My question was about our ignoring the elephant in the room: a collapsing USD- major oil exporter -Russia- is selling more oil outside the USD (trade with China); this places more pressure on other major oil producers to look to trade in some currency that's somewhat grounded in reality; critical mass will happen and we'll wake up to find that no one wants the USD anymore- printing presses halt. Saudis, key to the petro-dollar, are less able to keep markets US-based: Russia has been back-channeling Russia; I suspect that Russia will replace the US as protectorate (or main arms supplier) and that that'll be the end of the petro-dollar [and thus USD as world's reserve currency]. This is based on an understanding of history and geopolitics.

I've yet to really hear an economist own up to confessing that perpetual growth isn't possible.

What, then, is retirement going to look like when there's no growth? And what will the society be like then?

 

[Larry Caldwell]

A lot of people like cities and like the SF bay area. Yea the cities here are too crowded for me (like all cities), but most folks aren't like me.

The advantage of cities is socialism. Collective effort provides services like water, sewer, roads, transportation, police, and fire protection, that have to be provided by the individual in rural areas. Some of those services are available in rural areas at a reduced level. Roads are often gravel, it's rare to even see police, mass transit does not exist, water and sewer are on you. People live in cities because it's easier.

 

[Torvy]

So you want economists to dive into a false premise and agree with it?

That will happen about when you admit you don't understand how economics works. Econ is apolitical. Politicians try to twist it to their advantage, but the laws of Econ are as solid as the laws of Physics. Repeatable and undeniable.

Economic Growth is not dependent on population growth. It helps, but is not necessary. You also run under the illusion that humans remain tethered to this planet. By the time population gets too high, we will either have moved on or experienced an externality like a lethal pandemic, asteroid strike or increase in solar output. As it is population growth has slowed considerably. Most of the growth is in the 3rd world. Humans have a funny way of adapting to change.

US oil policy would be a political discussion. Facts of how policies affect inflation is an economic discussion. This is not about party or politicians.

 

[Larry Caldwell]

Wonderful thing, America, you can believe as you wish. Facts, however, are a thing. The US has never experienced hyperinflation. What you are describing about the Nixon/Carter era was Stagflation. This was supposed to be impossible according to Keynes, who erroneously convinced generations of politicians that it was possible for government to spend its way out of recession.

Taxes are not really a factor in inflation as you describe the Great Society. Whether the government raises taxes or not, increasing the money supply is one way to spur inflation. Ultimately, it was Johnson's Great Society that led to the problems during the Nixon era...Nixon just made it worse by ignoring his economists, including Milton Friedman.

One reason the US has not experienced hyperinflation is that the minimum wage is not pegged to inflation. By definition, that would cause an ever expanding upward spiral in inflation. This is not really a debatable fact. It is exacting like an infinite loop in a computer program, if wages rise, then prices rise to pay them, then inflation indexes wages, which increase prices...ad infinitum.

For examples of hyperinflation, see modern day Venezuela, post WWI Germany, or post WWII Hungary.

You have a definition of hyperinflation that eliminates hyperinflation. By my definition, any double digit inflation rate is hyperinflation. If a currency loses 80% to 90% of its value in a single decade, that's hyperinflation. A 12% inflation rate is why we had to shut down the US economy for a couple of years in the '80s. It was an ugly thing to live through, but better than the alternative. Then the trigger was deficit spending linked with loose monetary policy, just like it is today. You can starve all the poor people you want, it's not going to make a bit of difference.

 

[kenmac]

The advantage of cities is socialism. Collective effort provides services like water, sewer, roads, transportation, police, and fire protection, that have to be provided by the individual in rural areas. Some of those services are available in rural areas at a reduced level. Roads are often gravel, it's rare to even see police, mass transit does not exist, water and sewer are on you. People live in cities because it's easier.

And I'm on with not having all that. Guess that's the reason my 13 acre river front property is only taxed at $24.00 per yr

 

[JasperFrank]

If you are involved with an employee owned business, then god help you.

 

[ultrarunner]

Now. How do we get the young generation to adopt this (and my) work ethic? Before my Dad passed 6 years ago I thanked him for giving me food and shelter but the best thing he did was as a kid I wanted a bicycle and a paper route paid for it. My first car I worked at a service station $50/week to buy it ('66 Rambler American and still have it).
People appreciate things they have to work for.
I ran service calls for over 40 years, great seeing how people lived. Section eight houses and apartments people didn't take care of...no incentive to.

Hey I was working $50 a week and still have my Rambler American... 1959

I was 13 and paying taxes, had a checking account and each week in summer of the $50 in wages $20 went to mom for room and board... and $20 in the bank.

 

[Fuddy1952]

Hey I was working $50 a week and still have my Rambler American... 1959

I was 13 and paying taxes, had a checking account and each week in summer of the $50 in wages $20 went to mom for room and board... and $20 in the bank.

We must be kin...or should be! I also have a 1958 Rambler American. The 58,59,60 hard to tell apart. 195.6 cu in flathead six.