Tractors and (upcoming) tariffs?

[bvanek]

Back to tariffs, I guess I'm a touch baffled that so many folks don't believe people are going to do exactly what they said they are going to do. The "10% on china" was "10% on top of the initial proposal of 60% increase across the board" which means 70% total if that lands (so 60% increases for anything from China across the board is currently best case). Maybe the 25% on Canada and Mexico will happen up front.. maybe it'll only be 10% and then ramp up as the retaliatory tariff war lands. I dunno.. but when someone says they're going to do something.. my first tendency is to go ahead and take them at their word.

reciprocal trade is not the doom and gloom you project and there will be many other supporting items in the full package..all quite transparent, what a concept! So maybe you should be thankful for this wide open transparency so you can guess about the future with this information up front ..

Did you build a fallout shelter? Have you prepared for an EMP blackout, cyber attack or sabotage of our infrastructure? just saying;
Do you have kids or grand-kids and are concerned about useful education or a trade that contributes towards supporting themselves instead of being on the taxpayers dime?

Politicians talk, businessmen walk. Running your country at a loss is not a good thing and the country needs assets that don't involve adding to the debt. If the country is mortgaged, so are you. (taxes) ...So there are some pretty smart businessmen thinking outside of this political bureaucracy that created the need for change in the first place.....pretty convinced they will pursue an approach that will likely be much better for us all. The country needs to be fixed and this abrubt change needs to happen sooner than later. It's not so "baffling" if you look at the big picture....the last four years has been a disaster for the rapidly declining middle class. Once the heart and soul of our great nation.

maybe you should worry a bit more about the sabotage of the outgoing admin....purposeful undermining just makes the fix harder for those who want us all to succeed, both as a nation and as individuals.

 

[sunandsand]

Sometimes (sometimes?) governments fail to take the long view, or they deny there is a problem, simply ignore it, or kick it down the road.

Here in Florida we have a program called a CRA (Community Redevelopment Act). Establishing one is essentially a paper-pushing exercise but it has tremendous long term benefits for the community.

Here's how it works. The year the CRA is established is the base line, lets say 2025. The CRA caps the portion of the property taxes that go to the county at 2025. (The CRA can go 20 years.)

As property taxes go up, and they ALWAYS go up, any increase above the 2025 base line goes the the city instead of the county, and the city spends it on things that improve the community. Road improvements, landscaping, better infrastructure, grants to refurbish and update tired, obsolete properties, and more.

This gets especially interesting when there is new construction. Start with an empty field, taxes essentially zip. Build 50 homes, 2026 value $350K each, now you have a tax base that the city can use. County only gets the 2025 baseline on the empty lot, city gets the increase.

After 15 years, those 50 homes are now assessed at probably $750K (maybe more) and taxed accordingly (ouch), county still only gets the 2025 baseline, city gets the increase. (County hates this, too bad, so sad.)

Our local government REFUSED to discuss this or even consider it - and we have over 1,200 new homes permitted. They flat didn't want to hear about it, go away, don't talk about it any more.

There are two cities in this area which implemented CRAs 10 or 15 years ago. They have made an astonishing difference, back then their main streets were all boarded up, no businesses, shrinking tax base, these were dying communities.

Now, both of them are positively jumping. One has a commercial vacancy rate of half of one percent - which is astonishing. The other one has a brand new civic center (and a lot more), all paid for by the CRA, which keeps the tax dollars IN the community instead of letting the county spend it on their pet projects (one of which is a homeless shelter off in the woods where nobody can get to it even if they wanted to, and they don't).

So what happened here? Outgoing city administration was old, tired, set in their ways and bluntly, would be long dead before any change would be noticed. It was easier for them to ignore the problem because they wouldn't be around to see any benefits.

After this last election, we have a new mayor and new commissioners. I was talking to the mayor about this and his response was "Holy ****, we can get HOW much money?" My answer was yes, we can. "Well lets get on it!"

So perhaps we might modify the "term limit" idea to "Are you open to new ideas or do you want to go back to 1950?" Sometimes people get seriously stuck in "the way we've always done it" even though the times and situations have changed, sometimes drastically.

Change is inevitable, you can adapt to it, or perish.

Best Regards,
Mike/Florida

 

[CloverKnollFarms]

The sky has been falling for two decades.

The current administration has lied and subverted democracy.

It just blows my mind that people can't see it on their own side. It's like people who still wear paper masks alone in their cars. They have been severely psychologically damaged, to ignore what their eyes are actually seeing.

I don't want the affects of tariffs... But I would love the benefits of tariff threats. Any administration is a gamble, this is one worth taking IMHO.

Any administration that is looking to preemptively pardon dozens of people, is a threat. They lied about the health of the POTUS. They appointed a Presidential nominee. They would like to grow the SCOTUS. And we are now fighting against the mutilation of young children's bodies in the SCOTUS. The country isnt OK. The adults weren't running it. The weirdos and enemies of the fabric of the US have been. Biden is opening Pandoras box, he will be remembered for what he destroyed, not what he built. It seems in his last months he will just burn it down. Maybe as retribution for the elites pushing him out, only to lose anyway. In fact, his endorsement of Kamala, may have been his FU to the elites. He knew she couldn't win, and after his endorsement, the idea of an open primary was moot. I've never seen the old man as happy as he was in his first press conference, after her loss.

It'll be a fun 4 years, they are all fun... You just have to look for the humor.

 

[LouNY]

I'm sitting and listening (reading) all this noise about high interest rates and I have to wonder what are they talking about;

They had been trending downward since the peak in the late 70's with a low in 2020-21, and even now they are less then they were in the 60's and early 70's

 

[rScotty]

I'm sitting and listening (reading) all this noise about high interest rates and I have to wonder what are they talking about;
View attachment 1966549
They had been trending downward since the peak in the late 70's with a low in 2020-21, and even now they are less then they were in the 60's and early 70's

Absolutely right. People who complain about "high interest rates today" simply aren't paying attention to historical rates. It's just a matter of education.

 

[Hay Dude]

Absolutely right. People who complain about "high interest rates today" simply aren't paying attention to historical rates. It's just a matter of education.

No, it’s a matter of recency bias.

True they are lower than the early 80’s, but I didn’t buy my first home until nearly 2000, so to me and people in their 40’s-50’s, they seem high.

 

[CloverKnollFarms]

The issue has become the unaffordability of homes. In relation to income, homes are more expensive than in the 1980s. I feel extremely fortunate that we bought and paid for our current acreage and home, in full, in 2018. My daughter will be on the edge of homelessness in Boston for quite a while.
Couple that with people burying themselves in college loans and credit card debt. It's really all encompassing. Higher rates wouldnt hurt so bad if not for record consumer debt, record home prices, and inflation eating away at all other areas.
This is one reason we made hay while the sun was shining. Paid off all debt in 2014, and have banked everything since. I knew the sun wouldnt always shine, and that was the time to set up the future.

 

[rumwrks]

So what I'm getting is:

• They won't actually impose tariffs despite it being a core policy position because you can't believe anything the incoming admin says... (which.. I mean.. ok.. I do have some trouble strictly arguing with that, although I'm more inclined to believe actions than words and we're seeing more actions in this direction so I'm also inclined to believe the words..).
• The tariffs (that we won't get) will be good actually when we do get them because (list of reasons not actually backed by historical outcomes or basic economics).
• When we get the tariffs there will be 5D chess move to somehow mitigate their effects by pumping more oil than we even are (Ignoring we're pumping more than we literally ever have and that oil is a global market and other countries can and will adjust things to bankrupt domestic producers just like happened last time we tried that .. which is why a lot of local exploration and development companies are now foreign owned.. winning.. Plus that's not how it actually works, cost of delivery is only a fraction of the cost of things so reducing it definitely wouldn't make up the difference even in the unlikely event that comes to pass).
• Stupid liberals deserve the tariffs and we're cool with it crashing the economy if it at least takes them down with us.
• Facebook memes about the current admin when all else fails.

reciprocal trade is not the doom and gloom you project and there will be many other supporting items in the full package..all quite transparent, what a concept! So maybe you should be thankful for this wide open transparency so you can guess about the future with this information up front ..

This isn't reciprocal trade, this is unilateral tariffs which will cause reciprocal tariffs. I don't need to pay more for **** so we can use my tax dollars (and yes I pay plenty of those) to bail out industries devastated by another self own. As to transparency .. I guess you're right, and that's why I'm sitting where I am right now saying "this is going to be really expensive so I hope y'all buckled up cause it'll be one hell of a ride".

I don't want the affects of tariffs... But I would love the benefits of tariff threats.

What you want and what you get are unlikely to be aligned in this case. I suspect it's more likely you'll get the tariffs, and none of the supposed benefits of the threats. If I wasn't going to get hit hard by it myself I'd find it all pretty funny actually that y'all are getting precisely what you voted for.

You just have to look for the humor.

Indeed, I suppose I should order in a bunch of "I did that" pointing stickers to post around shouldn't I... Then I can sit and laugh at the folks angrily pulling them down. Hahaha.. so hilarious...

True they are lower than the early 80’s,

And the 90's and the early 2000's... I paid almost 9.8% on the house I bought in 95 (admittedly with minimal credit at the time as I was still clawing myself out of 10k's of student loan debt and was flat broke) and had to go to an ARM to get barely under 7% in 2006 (when I had sterling credit). In 2002 it was right at about 6.5% with excellent credit (on an admittedly fairly expensive house). It would seem your recency bias is quite recent indeed.

 

[CloverKnollFarms]

I look forward to the # of illegal border crossings reported in the new administration. Since there was a threat of tariffs on Mexico if they didn't participate in that mitigation, and it appears they are taking that threat seriously. Meaning... It has a result, and the tariff hasn't been implemented.

Like you, I was once worried Biden would pass a $15/min wage, because he said he would, and I then he didn't. So, we all worry for nothing. Anxiety is just a false vision of a future where God isn't present. Since He is, it's quite pointless. Since I've realized that, life is very peaceful.

 

[Fishin-4-a-Livin]

So what I'm getting is:

• They won't actually impose tariffs despite it being a core policy position because you can't believe anything the incoming admin says... (which.. I mean.. ok.. I do have some trouble strictly arguing with that, although I'm more inclined to believe actions than words and we're seeing more actions in this direction so I'm also inclined to believe the words..).
• The tariffs (that we won't get) will be good actually when we do get them because (list of reasons not actually backed by historical outcomes or basic economics).
• When we get the tariffs there will be 5D chess move to somehow mitigate their effects by pumping more oil than we even are (Ignoring we're pumping more than we literally ever have and that oil is a global market and other countries can and will adjust things to bankrupt domestic producers just like happened last time we tried that .. which is why a lot of local exploration and development companies are now foreign owned.. winning.. Plus that's not how it actually works, cost of delivery is only a fraction of the cost of things so reducing it definitely wouldn't make up the difference even in the unlikely event that comes to pass).
• Stupid liberals deserve the tariffs and we're cool with it crashing the economy if it at least takes them down with us.
• Facebook memes about the current admin when all else fails.

This isn't reciprocal trade, this is unilateral tariffs which will cause reciprocal tariffs. I don't need to pay more for **** so we can use my tax dollars (and yes I pay plenty of those) to bail out industries devastated by another self own. As to transparency .. I guess you're right, and that's why I'm sitting where I am right now saying "this is going to be really expensive so I hope y'all buckled up cause it'll be one hell of a ride".


What you want and what you get are unlikely to be aligned in this case. I suspect it's more likely you'll get the tariffs, and none of the supposed benefits of the threats. If I wasn't going to get hit hard by it myself I'd find it all pretty funny actually that y'all are getting precisely what you voted for.


Indeed, I suppose I should order in a bunch of "I did that" pointing stickers to post around shouldn't I... Then I can sit and laugh at the folks angrily pulling them down. Hahaha.. so hilarious...



And the 90's and the early 2000's... I paid almost 9.8% on the house I bought in 95 (admittedly with minimal credit at the time as I was still clawing myself out of 10k's of student loan debt and was flat broke) and had to go to an ARM to get barely under 7% in 2006 (when I had sterling credit). In 2002 it was right at about 6.5% with excellent credit (on an admittedly fairly expensive house). It would seem your recency bias is quite recent indeed.

So you believe that we were on a good path and heading in the right direction, and you believe Kamala would have been a better choice?