Retirement Planning - Lessons Learned

[Larry Caldwell]

Market Timing…

Real Estate often boom and bust… it’s been 11+ years of gains after the bottom dropped in my area.

Foreclosures on every block… 1922 bungalows going for 100k… those same homes now selling 950k

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Oakland/2736-Bartlett-St-94602/home/539447?utm_medium=share&utm_source=web_share&utm_campaign=native_dialog

It defies gravity especially in East Oakland CA…

If history repeats these 950k homes could be 200k foreclosures…

If we only had a crystal ball… old school I know.

Of course city owned abandoned homes we’re going for $1 in the 1970’s

Real estate prices vary widely, but real estate values do not. They are always a place to live and keep your stuff. Speculators may take it in the shorts, (pun intended) but home owners will be fine as long as they can make the payments. The worst case scenario is a world wide depression that takes a decade to climb out of. I'm hoping that is not likely. My more immediate concern is a monetary crisis like the late '70s that forces double digit interest rates to convince other countries to accept the dollar. The US economy can no longer function without imports, and 12% T-bills would break the treasury. I've lived through it before. If it happens again, it would be many times worse.

I'm very much a fiscal survivalist. My retirement planning always consisted of digging in so deep that the collapse of the economy could not dig me out. I have no debt, and the great majority of my expenses are voluntary. It may not be fun, but we will survive.

 

[ultrarunner]

With all the rent laws and new Covid policies most single family is owner occupied…

A home that sold new for $2400 and a hundred years later 950k is one thing but going from 100k to 950k in 10 years is another…

Know many that walked away 2009-12 never to return to ownership…

Remember… economics is one side but civil unrest, looting, squatters are very real too and I think deserving of consideration.

I have already been faced with massive looting and near pillaging and law enforcement at every level said try to leave if safe… we are not able to respond…

 

[philtyler]

Hiya Andy,

Although I am in Australia, this is what I have learnt from my own retirement.

Firstly I didn't plan far enough ahead. If I had my time again I would start planning 3-5 years before retirement.
2nd. I/we got good financial advice which has benefitted us and also taught me a bit. Our Financial Planner was via my Superannuation company, So probably not applicable to USA.
3rd. We have stayed put in our country town. I have seeen plenty of people move to the coast but having been in our current town for 35 years I/we feel a part of the community. If we were to move to somewhere else, we wpuld know very few people and that is a disadvantage I think.
4th. Having a few acres always means there is something to do. So we will keep our property till it gets beyond me.

Finally, I retired at 70 and it took me a year to get used to it, but now am loving every minute. I guess it is always important to have something to look forward to.

Cheers

 

[goeduck]

law enforcement at every level said try to leave if safe… we are not able to respond…

My feeling is that the will of the people will rectify this, but I sure do not know when.

 

[ultrarunner]

Immigrants from war torn areas often have a very different take on things when it comes to stability and long range projections...

One thing I had never thought about is the US Dollar and how dollar currency and coin from a century ago or even much longer is still legal tender... quite a feat compared to much of the world.

With stability comes the ability to plan...

One of my Grandparents friends came from Germany... was in a well to do family and he told me how German money became worthless... money enough to buy a home suddenly could only buy a bier... sobering prospect.

Some farmers wanted nothing to do with money when it came to retirement...

Contracts were drawn to receive one fatted steer, so many pigs, gallons of milk, grain etc... each year.

The belief is so long as there are people the staples of life have real value and can easily be bartered or converted as needed

It seems some using Real Estate are using a similar philosophy...

Gain ownership/control now and you will provide future inflation hedge and even better if income producing unlike precious metals...

Oh... the discussion all started when I as a kid said I want to have a million in the bank and be rich... he said been there and done that and overnight the money became worthless...

 

[MossRoad]

Immigrants from war torn areas often have a very different take on things when it comes to stability and long range projections...

One thing I had never thought about is the US Dollar and how dollar currency and coin from a century ago or even much longer is still legal tender... quite a feat compared to much of the world.

With stability comes the ability to plan...

One of my Grandparents friends came from Germany... was in a well to do family and he told me how German money became worthless... money enough to buy a home suddenly could only buy a bier... sobering prospect.

Some farmers wanted nothing to do with money when it came to retirement...

Contracts were drawn to receive one fatted steer, so many pigs, gallons of milk, grain etc... each year.

The belief is so long as there are people the staples of life have real value and can easily be bartered or converted as needed

It seems some using Real Estate are using a similar philosophy...

Gain ownership/control now and you will provide future inflation hedge and even better if income producing unlike precious metals...

Oh... the discussion all started when I as a kid said I want to have a million in the bank and be rich... he said been there and done that and overnight the money became worthless...

My dad collects postage stamps. As a kid, I remember him showing me multi-million mark German postage stamps from before WWII. There were lots of zero's. As I recall, that was my first introduction to inflation. I was well under 10 years old and still remember it.

 

[ultrarunner]

Yep... Million Mark bills used for toilet paper or to start kindling...

My simple approach for Grandma for the kids birthdays is the cost of a tank if gas...

A $5 spot in an envelope with a $3 card isn't the same as 50 years ago when the discount station sold gas at 25 cents a gallon.

Last year it was skip the card and put in a $50...

This year with gas at $4.50 it would be $90 using my formula

 

[MossRoad]

Yep... Million Mark bills used for toilet paper or to start kindling...

My simple approach for Grandma for the kids birthdays is the cost of a tank if gas...

A $5 spot in an envelope with a $3 card isn't the same as 50 years ago when the discount station sold gas at 25 cents a gallon.

Last year it was skip the card and put in a $50...

This year with gas at $4.50 it would be $90 using my formula

My wife wrote out a check for $50 for her sister in law's birthday last week. The next day we got a check for $50 from her mom for our anniversary. I told my wife that we've been recirculating that same $50 around the family for about 10 years now. Let's throw everyone's game off and send $55 next time.

 

[ultrarunner]

That's one way to do it...

 

[3Ts]

My dad collects postage stamps. As a kid, I remember him showing me multi-million mark German postage stamps from before WWII. There were lots of zero's. As I recall, that was my first introduction to inflation. I was well under 10 years old and still remember it.

There is a country in Africa where they print paper money with 9 zeros on the bill and you can get one for just a few US dollars. They used to be the "breadbasket" of Africa, but poor government policies led to the devaluation of their currency so much that it is next to worthless. The government officials do not want their currency, they prefer US.