Oil price prediction

Bob_Young · Jul 14, 2005

Sneaky, with relatives in western PA and in West Virginia, I've often heard of old wells in that area that will produce oil, but not at rates that make it worthwhile to pump them. But that was the story in the '70s. Oil wells used to dot that area when I was a kid, often running in peoples' front yards.

Now, with oil at $50 a barrel, is it still NOT worthwhile to pump them? Or has the EPA clamped so many restrictions on production sites that it is a losing proposition?

I can't help but think that this oil crises is something we're doing to ourselves with fanatical environmental standards.

Then again just think of the fuel that would be saved if ALL sporting competitions were suspended. Everybody from Soccer Moms to NASCAR drivers would get to spend a quiet evening at home.

I know, shouldn't think outside the box like that. /forums/images/graemlins/crazy.gif
Bob

slowrev · Jul 14, 2005

Then again just think of the fuel that would be saved if ALL sporting competitions were suspended. Everybody from Soccer Moms to NASCAR drivers would get to spend a quiet evening at home.
//
Wow how radical ! Hope you don't get threats over this /forums/images/graemlins/smile.gif
About getting into religion there /forums/images/graemlins/smile.gif
It is a thought though.....

Ben

texbaylea · Jul 14, 2005

Just think about turning off all that air conditioning. /forums/images/graemlins/smile.gif /forums/images/graemlins/smile.gif /forums/images/graemlins/smile.gif /forums/images/graemlins/smile.gif

frank_f15 · Jul 14, 2005

( With the recent hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico and BP-Exxons Thunderhead Oil Platform damage, fuel should be >$3 a gallon by Labor Day.......
)

There has been hurricanes for ages and it never seemed to affect the price of fuel before, i think they just figured out another reason to charge more. i think we are being snookered!!! They will charge what we will pay and then try to add on more.

TractorLegend · Jul 14, 2005

Id love to avoid soccer for my own relaxation but in the long run I think we have too many sedentary children in USA as the obesity statistics point out.
If my kids desire to stay active I support that 125 percent.

But if all the moms drove there in WRX's the parking lot would look alot cooler!!! /forums/images/graemlins/grin.gif /forums/images/graemlins/grin.gif

SkyPup · Jul 15, 2005

( ( With the recent hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico and BP-Exxons Thunderhead Oil Platform damage, fuel should be >$3 a gallon by Labor Day.......
)

There has been hurricanes for ages and it never seemed to affect the price of fuel before, i think they just figured out another reason to charge more. i think we are being snookered!!! They will charge what we will pay and then try to add on more. )

LOL, since almost all the US refining and processing is in the Gulf, as well as the ships and offshore platforms, hurricanes cause the complete shutdown of shipping lanes, offshore platforms, refineries, etc. and it takes a month or more of hard work to even get them back online once again. Including the sea bottom destruction of the oil and gas lines from the underwater wave actions. Not to mention the largest refinery in the western hemisphere is in the Virgin Islands and supplies 80% of refined products to the East Coast PADD 1 and PADD districts and it and all shipping to and from it have been shut down for two weeks.....

You couldn't possibly be more wrong with your conspiracy analysis..... /forums/images/graemlins/smirk.gif

sneaky_pete · Jul 15, 2005

( Sneaky, with relatives in western PA and in West Virginia, I've often heard of old wells in that area that will produce oil, but not at rates that make it worthwhile to pump them. But that was the story in the '70s. Oil wells used to dot that area when I was a kid, often running in peoples' front yards.

Now, with oil at $50 a barrel, is it still NOT worthwhile to pump them? Or has the EPA clamped so many restrictions on production sites that it is a losing proposition?

I can't help but think that this oil crises is something we're doing to ourselves with fanatical environmental standards.)

In some cases yes, but... a couple of things to bear in mind -

When you adjust for inflation since then and now, $50 oil now costs us less than $30 oil back in the early 80's.

Also, downhole in an oil well is a very caustic environment; sour components in the crude react with air and water to make Carbonic and other nasty acids, and it precipitates out Parrafin that clogs everything up. It would take a good deal of money to fix up a well that has had no attention in twenty or thirty years, if it could be done at all. Not to mention that if the well was actually plugged versus just being shut in, then it couldn't be re-entered and returned to production. Most states have strict laws that require non-producing wells to be plugged not just shut-in, if they don't produce at all in some reasonable amount of time. This protects us from water contamination and etc.

Regulatory restrictions make it more expensive to produce oil and gas, but most of them are a Good Thing in the big picture. The eco-fanatics however are keeping us from exploring for oil in many areas in this country. Even that doesn't bother me, as long as they (and their brainy movie-star friends) don't drive any cars, ride in any airplanes, air-condition their houses or use anything made of plastic. /forums/images/graemlins/blush.gif

slowrev · Jul 15, 2005

Ben Playstations and gameboys and such to get the kids more active ? Or have such game be powered by treadmills only /forums/images/graemlins/smile.gif

Ben

sneaky_pete · Jul 15, 2005

( There has been hurricanes for ages and it never seemed to affect the price of fuel before,)

Au contraire; it happens every time any producing platforms in the gulf have to be shut down, it happened last year as a matter of fact. You notice it much more now than ten or fifteen years ago because a bigger percentage of our domestic production comes from the Gulf of Mexico than ever before.

( i think they just figured out another reason to charge more. i think we are being snookered!!! They will charge what we will pay and then try to add on more.)

Isn't Capitalism great?

Do you think that Ford, GM, McDonnell-Douglas, or John Deere don't do the same thing? Heck, I do the same thing - I'm self-employed and bill my time by the hour. I charge whatever I think my clients will pay, and try to raise it every now and then when I can. If I charge too much, they will let me know pretty quick by taking their business somewhere else.

Little people like you and me and retired school teachers own ExxonMobil, BP, and the other big oil companies. If anyone thinks they're making too much money, then the solution is simple - buy their stock and cash in on the bonanza yourself.

SkyPup · Jul 15, 2005

Hmm, current news and events do not give credence to your hypotheisis:

While U.S. rigs in the Gulf of Mexico largely escaped the wrath of Hurricane Dennis and are likely to be out of the path of incoming Hurricane Emily, worries on Friday focused on the possibility of the storms limiting oil production and shipments from Mexico and Venezuela.

"The market ... is one Category 4 hurricane away from going back above $60 a barrel," said David Thurtell, commodity strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

"Prudence determines that every passing storm requires evacuation of rigs, the season still could be disruptive," said oil analyst John Kilduff of Fimat USA.

Venezuelan authorities ordered several oil tankers in the key refining zone of Puerto La Cruz to remain in port, likely delaying exports.

Analysts tracking Emily's path said it could hit the Cantarell oil field in Mexico, which could immediately wipe out 2.5 percent of the world's daily oil production of around 84 million barrels.

"The market is still tightly enough balanced and the cushion of surplus capacity is narrow."

Sounds like $3 plus a gallon by Labor Day, although may go even higher depending on the number of Hurricanes in the Gulf..... /forums/images/graemlins/wink.gif