Yes, definitely you'd want to change it if you noticed a difference in smell, but you won't, with synthetic.  What you might notice when it's time to change is a change in viscosity.  For example, the oil in my VW diesel is now almost two years old with right at 76,000 miles on it.  I can see a difference in the viscosity of it.  If I put a drop of it and fresh oil on my fingertips, the fresh oil spreads out sooner and is pretty obviously thinner.  It's time to change it.  If I had bypass filtration on it, it would change more slowly - I've left the oil in my Dodge quite a bit longer with no evidence of thickening.  Of course, it also has the benefit of almost three times the capacity, too.