New Tractor Sales Are Declining

[rScotty]

30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rate - Historical Chart​

View attachment 787831

That chart reminds me that for the last generation of boomers, we wished we could of bought at rates as low as they are today.
rScotty

 

[Cahaba Valley Farm]

That chart reminds me that for the last generation of boomers, we wished we could of bought at rates as low as they are today.
rScottyView attachment 787886

They're not low anymore. I think that era is gone.

 

[Hay Dude]

Well, I guess that chart is kinda like “how far do you want to go back in time“?
It appears from that chart that interest rates are at a 24 year high? Highest since 1999-ish?
So that means for anyone of house buying age you’d have to probably be over 45-50 years old to “feel good” about today’s interest rates.
So that means anyone under 45-50, which is primarily a lower income age group (1st & 2nd time home buyers) that are getting beat up with today’s interest rates.

Now add to that the new taxes imposed on energy for heating/lighting homes, plus ever increasing property taxes and you’ve got plenty to be upset about.
Then there’s increased food costs and gasoline costs.

Leaves little for optimism.

 

[rScotty]

They're not low anymore. I think that era is gone.

No, the era I am speaking about is today. Specifically, the rates I am talking about were as of last week when I was involved in looking at several houses being considered by a young blue-collar working couple with two children.

Isn't it amazing that a group of people can all look at the same chart and come away with completely differnt opinions? I look at that chart and think that when looked at historically, the present rates seem very good. Yes, rates were the same back in the 1960s and 70s....but I also know that typically required a 25% down payment. Today's overall rate is better than that.

Today's world seems full of promise to me. The financial numbers seem ordinary. What is not so ordinary is the amount of attention being paid to them.....and the odd lack of optimism.

rScotty

 

[TN8Man]

I don't think its the interest rates causing lower demand, its the economy in general. People are not buying like they did just a few years ago because they are struggling to stay afloat financially.

 

[5030]

No, the era I am speaking about is today. Specifically, the rates I am talking about were as of last week when I was involved in looking at several houses being considered by a young blue-collar working couple with two children.

Isn't it amazing that a group of people can all look at the same chart and come away with completely differnt opinions? I look at that chart and think that when looked at historically, the present rates seem very good. Yes, rates were the same back in the 1960s and 70s....but I also know that typically required a 25% down payment. Today's overall rate is better than that.

Today's world seems full of promise to me. The financial numbers seem ordinary. What is not so ordinary is the amount of attention being paid to them.....and the odd lack of optimism.

rScotty

It's the uncertainty that is driving the decrease in discretionary purchases more than anything else IMO. Tractors are all discretionary unless it's an AG tractor for a working farm.

 

[Hay Dude]

I don't think its the interest rates causing lower demand, its the economy in general. People are not buying like they did just a few years ago because they are struggling to stay afloat financially.

Yep. It’s high inflation, higher taxes, higher costs of living and, higher interest rates all combined together to make for a pitiful economic outlook.
Now the threat of higher corp taxes, 100% of which will be passed to the consumer and now threats of higher cap gains taxes. That doesn’t help.

 

[Cahaba Valley Farm]

Yep. It’s high inflation, higher taxes, higher costs of living and, higher interest rates all combined together to make for a pitiful economic outlook.
Now the threat of higher corp taxes, 100% of which will be passed to the consumer and now threats of higher cap gains taxes. That doesn’t help.

Yet demand is still strong and the economy is humming along.

 

[rScotty]

Yet demand is still strong and the economy is humming along.

Yes, it is. And that is the confusing part. The overall economy does seem to be humming along happily. The economists don't seem to have an answer for why the economy still appears so strong.

There's disagreement as to whether the economy is headed for a fall, or whether the old constraints on debt ceiling don't apply to an expanding economy like the US. I enjoy following both current schools of economic thought - but without buying either one.

If it is the latter, then no problem. If the former, the 1930 era depression has some lessons learned.

rScotty

 

[TN8Man]

I guess it depends on what data your looking at. If you look primarily at government data then yes you might think the economy is doing pretty good but if you look at non-government data (earnings reports, business closings, loan defaults, credit card debt and personal savings trends, etc) you might see a much different picture.

69% of consumers hold back on non-essential spend as cost of living rises; 90% adopt cost-saving behaviours: PwC Consumer Insights Survey​