My Retirement Plan

[riptides]

My retirement plan is to hit the lottery or keep working till I die. Which ever comes first.

 

[glgdiggs]

It is interesting to me that through this thread no one has mentioned the consequences of peak oil on retirement planning. We as Americans consume 25% of the worlds energy resources and have based our whole economic structure on abundant and cheap energy supplies. Those conditions for sustainability much less growth are rapidly dwindling. I have been keenly aware that peak oil is the most pressing problem that we face since I started studying it's effects on our lives in 1997. It will change everything. It now appears that world oil production peaked at 84 mbd in 2004. Please study up on this subject as the future assumptions you are counting on may change radically.

 

[EddieWalker]

For how many decades have the so called experts been telling us that oil supplies or dwindling? Yet, every year, and sometimes it happens a few times in a year, new, MASSIVE oil reserves are discovered. We know of more oil in the planet today then we knew of thirty years ago. The biggest problem with oil supply is that the politicians are putting barriers up to stop it from being drilled and refined. There is no energy shortage except for what is created by government. Get rid of them and we can build nuclear plants, clean burning coal generators and cheap gasoline. Since they limit the supply, the price will always remain high.

Eddie

 

[riptides]

... except for what is created by government. Get rid of them ....

Eddie

Well that is not going to happen, so we as consumers are locked in the game others are defining the rules of.

The best way to win, IMHO, is limit your dependancy on relying on others to control your life.
Turn green, become debt free, save some $$$, live within your means, etc. etc. etc.

 

[EddieWalker]

I agree with everything you say except the turn green part. I feel that's the latest con game going on to get people to spend more money on things they don't need, or replace something that's not broken. When doing the numbers on the return, it's just about impossible to make the investment of buying that so called green item worthwhile when figuring in the price of purchasing it and in some cases, having it installed.

Then there is the amount of energy and waste created in making the so called green item. Look at the hybrid cars and how toxic their batteries are. How much energy does it take to build these high dollar vehicles? and what happens to them when they batteries need replacing? Ethanol is supposed to cut down our dependence on oil, but it takes more oil to create it then we get back in gasoline. It's consumes massive quantities of water and corn. It's a huge money pit for tax dollars, and even with the billions of dollars going into the ethanol plants, they are still losing money. The fuel that is created lowers fuel mileage too!!!

I'm all for reducing pollution, but find it incredible that by calling something green, you can do just about anything you want if you can support your claim with a transparent falsehood that it's doing one thing good, while doing a dozen things bad.

It's not the people, most are just trying to do what's right. It's the politicians who pass these laws because a lobbyist gives them money so their company will make money off of selling this crap. The media rarely investigates anything, they just jump on the bandwagon and repeat the latest catch phrase. If it follows their agenda, then they all get behind it, regardless of what anybody else says.

Eddie

 

[smfcpacfp]

It is interesting to me that through this thread no one has mentioned the consequences of peak oil on retirement planning. We as Americans consume 25% of the worlds energy resources and have based our whole economic structure on abundant and cheap energy supplies. Those conditions for sustainability much less growth are rapidly dwindling. I have been keenly aware that peak oil is the most pressing problem that we face since I started studying it's effects on our lives in 1997. It will change everything. It now appears that world oil production peaked at 84 mbd in 2004. Please study up on this subject as the future assumptions you are counting on may change radically.

I always chuckle when I read something like this. Firstly, the most important source of energy is the sun and it is pretty evenly distributed, based upon the size of your land mass. It is essential in all aspects of life including the formation of hydrocarbon fuel. Every other form of energy pales in comparison. My father was a petroleum engineer for Sohio (Standard Oil of Ohio) from the early 50's until the mid 80's. He used to say that well less than 5% of the hydrocarbon fuel stock was in the form of oil. It also comes in the form of tar sand, shale and coal. Sohio was the most "crude poor" of the oil refiners in the US buying most their oil in the middle east. They acquired the rights to oil shale properties in Wyoming and in the mid 60's decided to develop a process for converting oil shale into gasoline, so my father treked off to Wyoming for two years on the project. They did, but it was way too expensive. Back then oil prices were fixed at less than $3 a barrel

Here is the kicker, the US and it allies have enough oil shale resources to equal all of the known oil reserves and all of the oil ever pumped out of the ground thus far. The tar sand reserves in Alberta are twice the size of oil shale resources, and coal resources world wide are practically astronomical.

I don't deny that we shouldn't wean ourselves off of hydrocarbon fuels (I hate sending any of our resources off to middle eastern despots), and waste less energy, but it isn't time to panic. As far as retirement planning - invest in enegy producers both old, and new.

 

[glgdiggs]

For how many decades have the so called experts been telling us that oil supplies or dwindling? Yet, every year, and sometimes it happens a few times in a year, new, MASSIVE oil reserves are discovered. We know of more oil in the planet today then we knew of thirty years ago. The biggest problem with oil supply is that the politicians are putting barriers up to stop it from being drilled and refined. There is no energy shortage except for what is created by government. Get rid of them and we can build nuclear plants, clean burning coal generators and cheap gasoline. Since they limit the supply, the price will always remain high.

Eddie

There are not new massive oil reserves being found every year. The last "massive reserves" were found in AK & the gulf of Mexico 30 years ago. We have been using 4 barrels of oil for each discovered for the last 20 years. Look carefully at the difference between reserves and recoverable oil. You live in a state where production peaked in 1971. Chevron ran ads in 2004 stating that it took 125 years to use the first trillon barrels and we will take 30 years to use the next trillion. I did not say we are running out, I said cheap and abundant. The decline rate of oil reserves around the world will increase the price and reduce the abundace. Oil is a finite resouce. Check the CIA factbook or USGS and other sources and real reserves hover at a trillion barrels. The world uses 30 billion barrels a year, the US uses 20 million per day with total recoverable reserves of 23 to 30 billion barrels. As I said study the issue carefully, and I believe you may change your mind. Also look at EROEI (energy returned on energy invested) for alternate energy sources and you may find that the alternatives are lacking. Most people who explore this problem are stumped to any easy solutions.

 

[glgdiggs]

I always chuckle when I read something like this. Firstly, the most important source of energy is the sun and it is pretty evenly distributed, based upon the size of your land mass. It is essential in all aspects of life including the formation of hydrocarbon fuel. Every other form of energy pales in comparison. My father was a petroleum engineer for Sohio (Standard Oil of Ohio) from the early 50's until the mid 80's. He used to say that well less than 5% of the hydrocarbon fuel stock was in the form of oil. It also comes in the form of tar sand, shale and coal. Sohio was the most "crude poor" of the oil refiners in the US buying most their oil in the middle east. They acquired the rights oil shale properties in Wyoming and in the mid 60's decided to develop a process for converting oil shale into gasoline, so my father treked off to Wyoming for two years on the project. They did, but it was way too expensive. Back then oil prices were fixed at less than $3 a barrel

Here is the kicker, the US and it allies have enough oil shale resources to equal all of the known oil reserves and all of the oil ever pumped out of the ground thus far. The tar sand reserves in Alberta are twice the size of oil shale resources, and coal resources world wide are practically astronomical.

I don't deny that we shouldn't wean ourselves off of hydrocarbon fuels (I hate sending any of our resources off to middle eastern despots), and waste less energy, but it isn't time to panic. As far as retirement planning - invest in enegy producers both old, and new.

The point again is cheap and abundant and as conventional oil reserves decline unconventional oil will not take its place. If unconventional oil was an easy solution we would not import a barrel of oil today.

 

[smfcpacfp]

The point again is cheap and abundant and as conventional oil reserves decline unconventional oil will not take its place. If unconventional oil was an easy solution we would not import a barrel of oil today.

My how little you know, and you have hijacked this thread with your little triad on oil. Take it to a new thread if you want to rant and rave.

 

[Cat_Driver]

Virtually all of my wealth was invested in stocks and remains so today. Stocks have provided the best long run return and the best return for any ten years period that you care to chose, for retirement type savings. Many investmetn advisors say that you should switch to fixed income investments as you get older. My philosophy is a bit different. I have always felt that if you stay invested in stocks, the additional wealth accumulation over time will more than compensate for market downturns like the one we are experiencing now.

I had a huge argument with my investment professional that I pay HUGE money to manage my funds who pretty much said the same thing. But right before the 50% drop in stocks I told him to take all my stocks and go to cash - his argument was like yours, NO you should stay invested. After arguing back and forth he sold everything to cash.

The stocks dropped by 50% but I kept 100% of my cash contrary to the professionals advice.

So I don't get why people keep saying STAY INVESTED, when NOT STAYING INVESTED made me a few hundred thousand dollars.

The poor investment professional who does one thing - make people money, almost cost me plenty....and on top of that he charged me to lose money.

Now I have twice as much money as I WOULD have had after the drop to buy back the same stocks but at a 50% discount.

Anyway just my 2 cents.