How do you explain a tractor flipping backward when the rear tires are frozen in mud?
Pulling a load that refuses to move creates similar forces, no? I don't think the small downward force created by that lower drawbar would overcome the extreme torque applied to the tires.
Anybody have a convincing vector diagram?
To answer your question, NO.
Draw yourself a diagram from the side view. Rear tire circle, ground below, showing center of axle and which direction is the front of the tractor. Leave out the mud and buried tires as that is not relevant. Pulling a load that refuses to move (or whether it moves or not) DOES NOT create "similar forces" so forget that for the moment.
In your simple diagram lets make the front of the tractor to the right. To represent forces use arrows. One arrow is down at the drawbar BELOW the center of the rear axle, to the left , the rear. One more arrow is the towing force exerted on the entire tractor at the center of the rear axle to the right (forward.) That simple diagram should illustrate that
rotation of the tractor caused by those two force arrows is CLOCKWISE which means helping to keep the front end on the ground, actually slightly adding weight on the front wheels while trying to rotate the front of the tractor downward when both forces are in play. Right? End of story. [Note: you are certainly correct that the downward force on the front tires while pulling correctly, using the lower drawbar, is a
small downward force because of the lever lengths. BUT THE POINT IS
direction, not amount! The force being downward on the front tires means it cannot raise the front end of the tractor but in fact contributes a little to keeping it down on the ground where it belongs.
Now to digress to the "tires frozen in mud" circumstance. First off, that is not an issue here and irrelevant but I'll comment on it anyway: If the rear tires are frozen in mud (or in the extreme, lets say frozen solid in frozen below zero mud and been there for a month...) what happens when you put the tractor in gear while running and try to move forward? The ONLY relevant force then is rotational and cannot be represented by straight line force arrows. In that case the entire tractor would attempt to rotate counterclockwise with NO FORWARD FORCE exerted by the rear tires. Now put it in reverse and try to back up. In that case the entire tractor would attempt to rotate clockwise with NO FORWARD FORCE exerted by the rear tires. I do not know how to say this more simply -- it is totally irrelevant to the issues being discussed.