Harv,
I'd like to strongly, but politely disagree with you on several points.
1) The Lincoln tombstone and thunderbolt have been around for years. These are in the mix of the low end welders you spoke about, and they have always been sold by the LWS, as far back as I can remember into the 70's and 80's.
2) In the course of my job, I talk to a lot of people running the LWS, and they are always complaining that the Big box stores have hurt their business significantly, and is one reason they are looking for alternatives. This represents cash flow to the LWS. While they may not be the huge chunk of the industrial business, it affects their ability to stock more shelf product that we all need when we go in...which turns many pros to online sources.
3) Companies that shut down one end of a business to specialize in service to one end of the industry are more susceptible to wide economic swings, particularly in the welding and construction industry. The slightest thing can send them into an economic tail spin. The people that are weekenders keep things going in tight times. It's a matter of economics. It's a sure sign the company is hurting. Fastenal recently found this out because in many locations they stopped "breaking" large qty. bags for customers. That lasted all of less than 6 months before they started breaking bags again and even offering smaller prepackaged qtys.
4) What I expect in the next couple years, is that LWS are going (and are) looking for MORE avenues to market their product, which will include going online with competitive priced products, and in store delivery of product, just like the walmart model.
It goes back to a company being dependent upon a company "narrowing" its customer base. In no way does that make business sense. The big box store is BIG business with the manufacturers as you suggested...if these sales weren't there, sure some of the sales would not exist, but the balance would be heading for the LWS. There are many LWS now that do business online and it is a huge part of their business.
Miller also sees this trend and is why they are offering direct sales to customers as they don't want to leave any stone "unturned"....especially if the LWS refuse to use good business sense and as the old Southern saying goes : "You cut your nose off to spite your face."
My prediction: Over the next 5-7 years, the LWS will get leaner, but not meaner. They will be forced to become more customer friendly, and seek new ways to service customers.
Big businesses are also money conscious, and the small guy is too. The bottom line trumps many things. Companies with CFO's etc. will not spend more money on equipement just for personal service at a LWS. They will buy from the cheapest source for whatever equipment is deemed needed. Small guys who run their own welding shop feel alienated from the LWS with guys who leave them standing in the aisle while the go cater to the big money customer. These guys are just as much a professional as anyone else, and if they get that kind of treatment at the LWS, it's just as easy to walk into a BIG box store or go click something online and get faster service.
Don't make a mistake of thinking that equipment sales are a welding supplies bread and butter not at the average 5-7% margin these guys tell me they work on. It's the nickel and dime things, and their gas sales where there is a 200-400% profit margin. Hey, soapstone, and safety glasses add up to big bucks pretty quickly...