Is it too soon to talk about Crypto yet?

[quicksandfarmer]

Putting this economic discussion into the context of asset classes, we can then ask what asset classes look as though they will perform better than inflation over time, or taking it a step further, what are the best asset classes to invest in?

That's easy: assets which represent a claim on a future stream of income. Like stocks, bonds and real estate.

 

[MinnesotaEric]

That's easy: assets which represent a claim on a future stream of income. Like stocks, bonds and real estate.

Loose fiscal policy killed bond yields for years by the time the yield and M2 money supply were factored in because Treasuries around the world issued more debt and then ran off and bought other currencies as a way to try to bolster the value of their own currency.

This gets back to my earlier statement about money supply getting confused with real tangible growth when it really was just devaluing buying power and inflating prices.

I'm suddenly reminded of Hayek talking about the "hair of the dog" when Keynes wakes up with a hangover from spending too much in the econ rap battle video from years ago.

 

[MinnesotaEric]

Edit: Apparently when posting from an iPhone, the forum software thinks numbers are emojis. Fixing that issue from my desktop.

Interpretive Letter 1183 from the Comptroller allows banks to custody crypto.




AltcoinDaily explains what this means.

Also, Altcoin doesn’t understand that crypto prices are back to getting knocked down again because the new administration isn’t immediately buying crypto and sentiment is negative as a result and so pricing is following the futures markets.

With negative pressure building up over the weekend, Mr. Market woke up wanting to sell everything and risking off after finally noticing the recession everybody else knows we've been in for over a year because our GovCo "fudged" employment records and increased government spending to hide the private sector spending contraction that came about from increased interest rates. Good job, Keynesians!


We'll never need money again... (again).

 

[rumwrks]

A trader thinks that the prices of eggs are going to increase, and so he contacts his broker and asks him to buy 1,000,000 egg futures at $1.70

Sure enough, a week later, the price of egg futures is $2.50, and the trader, happy to ride his winners, places an order for 3,000,000 more egg futures

Next month, at $4.30 a piece, he pats himself on the back and restructures his liquid investments to buy another 10,000,000 egg futures

At the end of the quarter, egg futures are trading at $7, and the trader finally calls up his broker and tells him to sell them all

The broker replies: “To who? You’re the egg man!”

 

[MinnesotaEric]

A trader thinks that the prices of eggs are going to increase, and so he contacts his broker and asks him to buy 1,000,000 egg futures at $1.70

Sure enough, a week later, the price of egg futures is $2.50, and the trader, happy to ride his winners, places an order for 3,000,000 more egg futures

Next month, at $4.30 a piece, he pats himself on the back and restructures his liquid investments to buy another 10,000,000 egg futures

At the end of the quarter, egg futures are trading at $7, and the trader finally calls up his broker and tells him to sell them all

The broker replies: “To who? You’re the egg man!”

The egg man, Heh! Sounds like a Beatles song.

Crypto-wise, there isn't as much leverage in the system as there once was just a few years ago but with every nation pledging spending, money supply is going to expand.
That said, a limit order of mine for Bitcoin tripped today below $78K. I have no fear of catching a knife (or sitting on a cornflake) as I've got a long-term view and if I liked $BTC at $100K, I like it even more right now!

That said, margin call-talk and forced liquidation talk certainly looks to be on the rise over on X!

 

[MinnesotaEric]

Meanwhile, toward the end of yesterday, there was talk that our newest President was purposely crashing the market in order to give a reason for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates and the market opened slightly up, but that turned into a dead cat an hour into today's session only to reverse again when US Congressman Nick Begich announced to introduce a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve bill with 6 other Congressmen co-sponsoring the bill.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1899486311636963536

Also, since it has been a minute since I last posted an update, let's revisit the State Legislation map.

 

[Snobdds]

The bitcoin maxi's are really turning people off to crypto.

 

[MinnesotaEric]

The bitcoin maxi's are really turning people off to crypto.

I tend to agree with you but the introduction of a zillion meme sh*tcoins using Pump.Fun on Solana and the rug-pulls that followed also halted alt-season through dilution and bad experiences.

That said, the memes are still fun!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1898934668214346056

 

[Fuddyduddy1952]

$83,272.68 USD
+$4,521.21 (5.74%)today
Some people made a lot today.
I have no idea the buying/selling commission is.

 

[MinnesotaEric]

$83,272.68 USD
+$4,521.21 (5.74%)today
Some people made a lot today.
I have no idea the buying/selling commission is.

Some coins are up much, much more. $DOGE, for example, was up over 15% from its bottom once the second rally settled in by early afternoon. Meanwhile, the broader equities market, while still down, has cut its losses in half as Ontario's Ford and the Commerce Secretary, Lutnick, have started talking to work out an agreement.

The funny thing is Mr. Market believes everything every day falling for the same things time and time again as money managers dump, cover, or buy to preserve gains or establish positions to make gains.

That said commissions are nothing compared to the spread between the actual spot price and the price the brokerage fills orders. We call that spread, "slippage."