The first thing that will happen is the outer rubber jacket will dry rot. That will allow water to get to the steel braiding and it'll rust. From there it really depends on how many layers of reinforcement wire braiding your hose has. I've had single braided hoses fail just after the first sign of rust on the steel while I have several quad braided hoses that half of the rubber jacket has rotted and fallen off yet still hold fine. If you don't want to run to fail I would say two to three years after you can start to see the steel braiding.
I was a replace when it broke kind of guy. But that always meant dealing with a local parts store making up a hose for me. I would have to spend over an hour dealing with getting a replacement while looking plenty of oil. Now I just buy them on-line. A lot cheaper once you add in all the costs, the inflated price at the local store ($50 vs $20, gas and my time, and extra fluid lost when it bursts and what leaks out as it sits. Plus I can find a place to change the hose with plenty of pans to catch as much fluid as I can vs having it leak allover the place.