Holy Smokes !!! Fidelity Semiconductor !!!

[NorTracNY]

I'm at the beginning of the supply chain for semi-conductor. We doubled in size just before covid. We tripled from there at the beginning of covid. We continue to expand. All the new fabs that are talked about take many years to build. These will take years to build, years to equip, and the energy they will use is massive.

The cost of energy and demand for energy is going to be a limiting case. I'd highly encourage people to look into getting solar panels for their places to supply their residential uses if they have the means to do so. We are potentially moving. I contacted a company to install solar. The first quote was for the maximum sized system allowed for a residence. There are no real incentives (which often limit the system to the size of your need) so the payback is best on the largest system they can install. 8.7year payback assuming the price of electricity doesn't increase further. They system was going to have the electric company pay me thousands every year.

 

[CH4Ohio]

As of this week we are 75% invested in the tech market. Up from about 70% last week. Well this is in the funds I control. If you add in my wife's index funds and 401K we probably have 50-60% in tech mutual funds. But they are spread out into different types of tech, software, hardware, etc., so in many different companies.


RSKY

Not a criticism, just a comment.

That particular fund may be spread across several different companies. But it's still 100% invested in just one SECTOR of the economy. There are 11 sectors -- 12 if you count CASH as an option. To be truly diversified you'd need to be spread across most or all of these SECTORS.

And, for what it's worth, if you own a mutual fund, you do in fact own individual stocks. Even an Index stock owns a slice of everything that trades on that INDEX. Nothing wrong with owning individual stocks! Just need to own a very diversified mix across sectors.

 

[Shawn T. W.]

I agree diversity is good as far as "sectors" go ... This is my ROTH at Fidelity ... No children to pass anything on to ... I also have 401K with employers limited choice of options at a different place ...

The 2040 is aimed at adjusting for along the way to retirement then ... And last closing prices . . . Obviously there are some that share areas ...

I don't worry too much of day to day prices, I just keep steady adding ... Have 12 years to let it grow before I start to pull some out ...

 

[CH4Ohio]

Fidelity Select Semiconductor hit $55.79 today. It was $22.88 in the second week of April last year. Up over 86% this year.

I missed this first time around. Consider the timing.

FSELX was in the $34 range before the market was turned upside with our Liberation Day pronouncement of world-wide tariffs on April 2nd. That generally peeled 15 - 20% off the value of everything over the next few weeks. It's just coincidental that you're looking at the "1 Year" performance and it starts in that artificial trough.

Still a good performer, no doubt. But need to look at the performance over a longer period for a true picture that's not skewed by the crazy tariff manipulations.

 

[Shawn T. W.]

Still a good performer, no doubt. But need to look at the performance over a longer period for a true picture that's not skewed by the crazy tariff manipulations.

Post #11 shows a longer term return ...

 

[CH4Ohio]

Post #11 shows a longer term return ...

Thanks!

For the last couple weeks, the 1-Year performance of everything you look at has been sky-high. I have to keep reminding myself that it's skewed by the Tariff Day downturn. Need to look at a longer period or at least go back before April 2, 2025 to get a more accurate picture.

 

[Shawn T. W.]

Yeah, I'm in for the long haul ... But even 31%+ over the last 10 YEARS ain't shabby!

 

[RSKY]

There has been a semiconductor shortage since Covid, supply chain issues started it.
Had a specialty circuit board manufacturer communicate to me on a replacement or new complete circuit that there supply chain wait time was around 2 to 3 weeks in 2019 is now 5 to 6 months and just get in line. In other words it may take longer.
It was also communicated that the last order of products to stuff the circuit cards took 8 months for supply and the price was higher than quoted before the order was made. This was all known to them at the time of the order. So the higher price just got passed on to the customer.
From all I have read in electronic journals the expected shortage of semi-conductors is going to be for another 2 to 3 years because manufacturing just can't keep up with demand.

This is good to know. So about 2028 to 2029 I need to look at diversifying a little more than I am. Thank you for the information.

RSKY

 

[RSKY]

I look at the 10-year and lifetime return on FSELX and that impresses me more than the 1-year return. FSELX started in 1986 and is the top fund at Fidelity over forty years. And, unlike many of you this isn't something that we depend on for income. I can loose half of the value of all my investments and it will not change our lifestyle. And as I have stated in a previous post I am looking to build generational wealth. If it maintains that 15-16% return over the forty years the fund will quickly increase in size.

 

[riptides]

.... And as I have stated in a previous post I am looking to build generational wealth. If it maintains that 15-16% return over the forty years the fund will quickly increase in size.

Been happy with Fidelity selections for the last 20 years.

Was looking at just maintaining 5 percent growth rates. Did a lot better than expected.

Now the Vanguard Funds, we were very aggressive in the tech sector. Still am, but just over a 10 year period. The last 5 years, over a 50 percent growth increase. All funds were either Growth or Tech based Index funds. VITAX outstanding returns.

Hoping to pass on to kids and charities. Something my parents and in-laws never considered.