Corona Virus # 3

[Molalla1]

1) they're working on a vaccine now.
2) we live in a world economy and the stock market looks to the future. Fears of a worldwide pandemic means less travel which affects airlines, cruise ships, motels, fuel, entertainment, etc. Fears of less shopping.
People are sheeple so a domino effect. Market drops, masses of people "get out before they lose everything", money goes into things like treasury notes which drops interest rates and it snowballs.
Fear can be irrational. Lots of people believe all sorts of conspiracies and the media is to blame for a lot just for the sensationalism.
I think about Katrina, or 9-11, or any other disaster, there's usually a panic driven sell off...then afterwards rebuilding takes place, so building supplies, medical supplies, equipment, etc is in demand.
Eventually once sanity is restored, the calm after the storm, with positive jobs/profits reports the market goes back up.
People who weather the storm long term win.

:thumbsup: . . . . . .

 

[k0ua]

Two things I don't understand, so I will ask now and hopefully get an answer before the thread locks again.
1)There is no cure for the common cold because it is a virus. So what vaccine or medicine are they talking about to cure this, if it is a virus?
2) Why does something like this have any effect on the stock market?

Thanks,
David

To the best of my knowledge there is no cure for the "common cold" because there is no such thing as the "common cold". The "common cold" is thousands of different constantly mutating virus (virusii?) . Not one specific thing. There are anti-viral drugs and vaccines, but they take some time to develop and just like the flu-vaccines it is hard to predict the mutations and keep ahead of this problem.

The stock market selloff is for several reason, but foremost is panic selling because of the perceived possible disruptions in the global supply chain. We are dependent on China for many goods and services for our economy so if they go down, our supply chain will likely go down. Say for instance the airline transportation sector: what happens to them if more and more airline transport is stopped or banned? Not just to China but Europe and even city to city in our own country. Well huge losses in airline stock would occur. So hence dumping of airline stock. This is just one little facet of the market panic. The stock market is always forward looking to what "might" happen, not to what "IS" happening. People don't want to be stuck with a declining stock that may go bust and lose all of their assets, they want to put their assets into things like Gold for instance which is strengthening right now. If the economy goes to "waste" gold will still be worth something. A stock certificate to an airline company or any of thousands of others that rely on China or anywhere for that matter in the supply chain may not be worth much in the future. It is all about the fear.

Why not just invest in gold and stay there you ask? Because that is not a good strategy in good expansive times. Gold can sit stagnant or even lose value when times are good and the market is expanding, which is has been doing now for some time. By the way if you get good at figuring all of this out, you won't be asking me for advice, you will be a very rich man indeed!

 

[Steppenwolfe]

One of our clients we build for relies on China to produce nearly 100% of their product; then in turn virtually 100% of this product is purchased in the US by visitors from another country and taken home with them. They are right now worried sh*tless that their stock is going to tank and start costing jobs. No product coming in... no product selling and going out... Not a good place to be. Lucky for me, we also build for a major player in the health care industry...

 

[k0ua]

Of course there is much more to stock market manipulation (which is a form of legalized gambling) than just fears of a coming economic disaster. There is "short selling" where people place their bets that the market will go down, and reap huge rewards when it does. Then when the market is deemed sufficiently depressed they can buy "long" and ride it back up. This results in profits on both trips down and up. So can you see it would be a good strategy to spread fear and disinformation to cause a panic and sell off? This is good for many people and a way of separating the money from the dumb people into the smart peoples pockets. The ago old proven way to make money in the stock market (and many other business endeavors) is to buy low and sell high. The trick is to recognize what is low and what is high.

 

[YanmarFever]

Most of that is false! Number 7 is the result of believing 1-9!

Neumann I pray that you are right, and it just goes away.

 

[TnAndy]

T

Why not just invest in gold and stay there you ask? Because that is not a good strategy in good expansive times. Gold can sit stagnant or even lose value when times are good and the market is expanding, which is has been doing now for some time. By the way if you get good at figuring all of this out, you won't be asking me for advice, you will be a very rich man indeed!

Gold has averaged 9.6%/yr return for 15 years from 2005-2020. Gold Price

I've been buying it along since late 90's (under 300oz) and am quite happy with a stash of real, private money with zero counter party risk.

 

[Molalla1]

Gold has averaged 9.6%/yr return for 15 years from 2005-2020. Gold Price

I've been buying it along since late 90's (under 300oz) and am quite happy with a stash of real, private money with zero counter party risk.

Good job Andy . . .

 

[k0ua]

What if you had bought gold in late 2011 or early in 2012? Even now it is not back up to those prices. It can be a risky investment too, just like anything else. But again, don't take investing advice from me, because if I knew anything about it I would be rich, and I am NOT.

 

[Molalla1]

What if you had bought gold in late 2011 or early in 2012? Even now it is not back up to those prices. It can be a risky investment too, just like anything else. But again, don't take investing advice from me, because if I knew anything about it I would be rich, and I am NOT.

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Me either James . . .

 

[k0ua]

Here is another little beauty:. I am sure you have all seen the constant commercial wanting you to buy Silver. They mention the 15 year price of silver and show the high as around $50 per ounce, and if you hurry and get in on the ground floor you can ride silver back to the top too. Hmmm, that commercial has been running for some years now, I wonder just when silver is going to take off?. Maybe today. And it may. But wouldn't you feel like a fool if you had bought silver a few years ago at the bottom and it is still near there and you missed out on all the gains in the stock market if you had invested there instead?. Everything has risk. Again, pay no attention to me as I am unqualified.