Corona Virus # 3

[Big Barn]

Mom's Dad was a physician. He never even drank soda, did everything right. He did make it to 87, he needed a heart valve replacement.
Dad's Dad was alcoholic, smoked cigars, overweight, ate garbage, no exercise, 93.

I see it often also. Just no way of knowing but I’ll stick to attempting to live a relatively healthy lifestyle.

 

[k0ua]

If my math is correct 18,000/40,000,000 is .045%
14/340 is about 4.1%

You are right...nothing to worry about less than 100 times the death rate.

BTW, if it infects 40,000,000, at that mortality rate...over 1,600,000 dead.

but numbers are just numbers.....Back to our regularly scheduled programming.

Well, I don't believe you have taken into account ALL of the people in the US that are now infected with Covid 19. So many more are infected than are "confirmed". You seriously don't think that only 340 people are infected with this virus do you? That is just the confirmed total. You CANNOT extrapolate that to a death rate. Not in a million years. Here is an example. Of the 45 people they tested on the ship outside of San Fran, 21 tested positive for Covid 19. Out of 3,500 people on the boat. Why do you think they tested the 45? Because they showed fever or other symptoms. The rest have the infection or maybe 1/2 of the rest. Surely you don't think just 45 people on a "closed system" like a cruise ship have this virus? No they just tested the sick ones. Many thousands of people right now in the US have or have had this infection. The symptoms are very mild for many people. This is NOTHING to get excited about and start throwing around huge death rates like 4 percent or the 40 to 60 percent of the bubonic plague in the middle ages. Everyone is on edge for no good reason. Wash your hands, don't cough on people, and stay home if you feel sick. That is all there is to this.

An official from the Health and Human services came out yesterday and said the death rate is between .1 and 1 percent. They just don't have enough testing done, and the Chinese are not forthcoming with their data to pin it down any better. When this is all said and done the death rate WILL NOT be much if any higher than Annual Flu. You will see. Did we need this "new virus"... no. we sure didn't. Not on top of the already 18,000 dead we have this season, or the extra 14,000 we had from H1N1 back a few years ago. But it ain't Bubonic plague. And it aint Ebola. And we ain't all gonna die. (Small comfort for someone that does die, and their loved ones)

The thing to watch is NOT the number that have died, but the number that have recovered. That line is going up at a steep angle. The confirmed cases is nearly a flat line. When they get close to intersecting, we are done with this latest plague.

 

[k0ua]

AAron, I see you have addressed the faulty math already.. Tnx.

 

[goeduck]

.... it has crossed my mind the outings greatly increase her exposure second only to church where everyone shakes hands and shares communion cup....

No offense to any church goers but the shared communion cup is a bad practice to start with. I would avoid it at all costs. Yuck. Even if they wipe the cup with a germ laden cloth and smear the germs around.

 

[Jstpssng]

Because you are comparing apples and oranges. The flu is a known entity, and we know roughly how much of an impact it will have. COVID-19 is just beginning to spread, and despite what experts and laymen alike say, nobody really knows how it’s going to affect most people.

Besides, hype and panic sells news.

 

[Jstpssng]

No, you misunderstood. I'm not talking about closing the nose and holding the sneeze in. I'm talking about preventing the sneeze from happening. Pinching the end of the nose diverts those nerve ends in your nose from triggering a sneeze.

Mom's Dad was a physician. He never even drank soda, did everything right. He did make it to 87, he needed a heart valve replacement.
Dad's Dad was alcoholic, smoked cigars, overweight, ate garbage, no exercise, 93.

Yep my grandmother (born in late 1800's) lived to 93 and she smoked Pall Mall straights for as long as I can remember to the day she died. :confused3:

They are exceptions though. Using this logic Mick Jagger, Steven Tyler, and Lou Reed are examples of how drugs make you virulent.

 

[goeduck]

The flu is a known entity, and we know roughly how much of an impact it will have.
.

True but there are many flus, new flus, etc. not always known. So some then will have more of an impact than others.

 

[k0ua]

Ttue but there are many flus, new flus, etc. not always known. So some then will have more of an impact than others.

This is the reason that the flu vaccines haven't been all that effective. It is just a guess what "flu" will be going around each year. The vaccine for covid-19 likely won't be effective either. It will have likely mutated on to something else by the time it is developed.

Oversized, for your brother, well, he needs to take special care. Even more than he probably does now. He is especially prone to this virus. But you already knew that.

It we wanted to know the actual death rate in the United States we would have to test every person in the nation. We only test people that are ill and present themselves to a medical facility, and we have not likely tested very many of those. The lack of the specific test kit for this virus have slowed down testing. We certainly are not going to test every person in the country or even every sick person in the country. We tested 45 people in a very high profile "petri dish" and found half of them had it. We sure as heck didn't test the thousands of people in that "dish" now did we?

 

[Jstpssng]

Ttue but there are many flus, new flus, etc. not always known. So some then will have more of an impact than others.

Yes, but despite those variations we still have an idea of the impact. As has been pointed out by others, we really don't know how many are carting the COVID-19 virus, nor do we really know how it has impacted China. Besides, everybody likes a crisis... as long as the bad parts are happening to somebody else.

 

[dragoneggs]

And for George Burns! Actually, it was a bad joke...I don't smoke. Ironically in my family the ones who did outlived ones who didn't.

Not too late to start!

 

[Steppenwolfe]

And my 71 year old Brother hasn't been able to work for nine years now because of COPD. Smoked his whole life. It is very ironic and genetics.

Hasn't worked in 9 years??? So, how does he get by? How does he pay rent or a mortgage, buy groceries? Pay for health care?

 

[Molalla1]

No offense to any church goers but the shared communion cup is a bad practice to start with. I would avoid it at all costs. Yuck. Even if they wipe the cup with a germ laden cloth and smear the germs around.

Ya know Duck I mentioned this to my wife (a devote catholic) about just that. The priest picks a Host out of a chalice and puts it into all their mouths, well . . . . only talked about it once.

 

[k0ua]

Not too late to start!

Never too late to pick up a bad habit!


Note I already mentioned that well over half of all Chinese men smoke. That is why their death rate from Covid-19 is much higher than Chinese women. Very few of those smoke.

Those of you that smoke, need to give that some serious thought.

 

[Molalla1]

Not too late to start!

I still enjoy a good cigar once in a while.

 

[shooterdon]

Well, I don't believe you have taken into account ALL of the people in the US that are now infected with Covid 19. So many more are infected than are "confirmed". You seriously don't think that only 340 people are infected with this virus do you? That is just the confirmed total. You CANNOT extrapolate that to a death rate. Not in a million years. Here is an example. Of the 45 people they tested on the ship outside of San Fran, 21 tested positive for Covid 19. Out of 3,500 people on the boat. Why do you think they tested the 45? Because they showed fever or other symptoms. The rest have the infection or maybe 1/2 of the rest. Surely you don't think just 45 people on a "closed system" like a cruise ship have this virus? No they just tested the sick ones. Many thousands of people right now in the US have or have had this infection. The symptoms are very mild for many people. This is NOTHING to get excited about and start throwing around huge death rates like 4 percent or the 40 to 60 percent of the bubonic plague in the middle ages. Everyone is on edge for no good reason. Wash your hands, don't cough on people, and stay home if you feel sick. That is all there is to this.

An official from the Health and Human services came out yesterday and said the death rate is between .1 and 1 percent. They just don't have enough testing done, and the Chinese are not forthcoming with their data to pin it down any better. When this is all said and done the death rate WILL NOT be much if any higher than Annual Flu. You will see. Did we need this "new virus"... no. we sure didn't. Not on top of the already 18,000 dead we have this season, or the extra 14,000 we had from H1N1 back a few years ago. But it ain't Bubonic plague. And it aint Ebola. And we ain't all gonna die. (Small comfort for someone that does die, and their loved ones)

The thing to watch is NOT the number that have died, but the number that have recovered. That line is going up at a steep angle. The confirmed cases is nearly a flat line. When they get close to intersecting, we are done with this latest plague.

I used your original numbers. If they were incorrect, that is your mistake not mine

My math is not 吐aulty?...if your data was faulty, blame yourself.

Look, I do not believe it will be that bad. But it does not help when people use numbers that do not make sense to prove their opinions. You lose credibility.

Smarter people than both of us combined do not know how this will play out...or at least the experts cannot agree. Blanket statements based on opinions and small subsets of data are interesting but not definitive.

BTW, even using your .1-1% numbers that is 2.5-25 times the death rate of the flu.... But believe what you wish to believe. Like I said...just numbers....until it matters

 

[k0ua]

Ya know Duck I mentioned this to my wife (a devote catholic) about just that. The priest picks a Host out of a chalice and puts it into all their mouths, well . . . . only talked about it once.

Helps spread the flu too!

 

[Steppenwolfe]

I didn't make fun of them, I said they are for all practicality, useless. I stated, maybe a fashion statement but little else.

Really dude..... really. In your case, a mask covering your entire mug might be an improvement but then, maybe not. Candidly, I don't much care what your opinion is.

Make up your mind. Wearing a mask is stupid and / or a fashion statement, or it is respectful for the others around you? Hey... maybe my opinion is nothing more than a fashion statement... :dance1:

 

[Molalla1]

Helps spread the flu too!

That was my point to the wife . . . :thumbsup: I'm not a devote anything, I do believe!

 

[Steppenwolfe]

Mom's Dad was a physician. He never even drank soda, did everything right. He did make it to 87, he needed a heart valve replacement.
Dad's Dad was alcoholic, smoked cigars, overweight, ate garbage, no exercise, 93.

Doesn't seem right, does it? :confused3:

 

[Steppenwolfe]

That was my point to the wife . . . :thumbsup: I'm not a devote anything, I do believe!

I believe as well; I just don't want you to tell me what to believe... :shocked: