Snobsdds is experienced and has a proven method.
What many don't understand about managed mutual funds is that professionals are doing versions of the same thing working within the rules of that particular fund. Rather than pulling out to cash, they will change the mix and sell some of one stock and buy more of another.
Most of us don't have the time and/or expertise to adequately trade in this way. That's why I recommend a broad fund for most people. Buy and hold.
That doesn't mean I disagree with his methods. They work well, but I'm happy to pay a little to my advisor to deal with the ebb and flow.
I have a lot of shares in funds that focus on businesses that regularly pay dividends, too. The market responds to many things that have zero to do with the profitability of a company. Dividends are more closely tied to how well a business is doing.
For example, if a bank has a problem (losses, regulatory, etc.), the market tends to hammer all bank stocks. In most situations, that is counter-productive. The devil is in the details, but often the missteps by one company leads to more profit for competitors, not less. Of course, because the market isn't rational, you will do better buying any of them after they bottom out.
