How are your investments doing?

[Tpondel]

There are so many tools available to know when.

Use them.

Hmmm. So many tools and yet no one has mastered the art of market timing.

 

[newbury]

If the whole country falls apart, I will be better off than 90% and considered wealthy by comparison.

I respect the conversations going on in this thread until I run across numbers like what Larry is throwing out. It makes me wonder. When I "googled" "income level for top 10% for married couple" the AI response was

To be in the top 10% of married couples in the U.S., your combined income needs to be approximately $178,611 or higher, according to 2022 data

Based on Larry's writings he should be far above that relatively low bar.

 

[DarkBlack]

My apologies...you do act like one. Meaning, the belief you are entitled to never ending returns.

“Entitled” ?

My money, my investment choices, my market risks.
What an odd, dark, assessment you have of it

 

[Snobdds]

“Entitled” ?

My money, my investment choices, my market risks.
What an odd, dark, assessment you have of it

Oh, don't play a victim.

 

[Fuddyduddy1952]

Market timing IMHO is crazy.
Short term "get rich quick" ideas are crazy.
Vanguard is the largest retail asset manager whom I've been invested with over 40 years, as well as Fidelity and many others, but I like their clipper ship logo and appropriate 'Stay the course' motto.
Time cannot be emphasized enough. I've never sold only opened new accounts or added to what I have.
I remember many years ago when my wife opened an account, Vanguard Wellington fund. The managers newsletter article said imagine starting the fund in 1929 with the trust of investors then soon the Great Depression hit so they lost money, except the fund's stocks paid dividends and capital gains.
"One up on Wall Street" by Peter Lynch is a good read.

 

[DarkBlack]

Oh, don't play a victim.

 

[Snobdds]

Market timing IMHO is crazy.
Short term "get rich quick" ideas are crazy.
Vanguard is the largest retail asset manager whom I've been invested with over 40 years, as well as Fidelity and many others, but I like their clipper ship logo and appropriate 'Stay the course' motto.
Time cannot be emphasized enough. I've never sold only opened new accounts or added to what I have.
I remember many years ago when my wife opened an account, Vanguard Wellington fund. The managers newsletter article said imagine starting the fund in 1929 with the trust of investors then soon the Great Depression hit so they lost money, except the fund's stocks paid dividends and capital gains.
"One up on Wall Street" by Peter Lynch is a good read.

When one knows how the RSI and MFI works...you can time the market. People use it everyday to time entries and exits. Then if you use market orders like sell stops...you really can time a market.

Relative Strength Index (RSI): What It Is, How It Works, and Formula

The relative strength index (RSI) is a momentum indicator that measures the magnitude of recent price changes to analyze overbought or oversold conditions.

www.investopedia.com

Money Flow Index (MFI): Definition and Uses

The money flow index (MFI) combines price changes and trading volume to help investors identify market reversals, overbought, or oversold conditions and find trading prospects that price-only indicators might miss.

www.investopedia.com

Then if you want to get really fancy with hedging a market entry or exit, you can use derivatives.

Understanding Derivatives: A Comprehensive Guide to Their Uses and Benefits

A derivative is a securitized contract whose value is dependent upon one or more underlying assets. Its price is determined by fluctuations in that asset.

www.investopedia.com

 

[Larry Caldwell]

I respect the conversations going on in this thread until I run across numbers like what Larry is throwing out. It makes me wonder. When I "googled" "income level for top 10% for married couple" the AI response was

Based on Larry's writings he should be far above that relatively low bar.

I don't think you are following the conversation. Many people value money for its own sake. I do not, and as far as possible I do not participate in the economy. I have everything I need. If I need it and don't have it, I have a shop, tools, a means of powering the shop, and the skills to make anything I need. If 100 million people want to wander around thinking they are better off than I am because they have more money, I don't care.

Money is only a concern to people who live in poverty. Many of my friends are well off. They accumulated wealth in the days when money was worth something, so they can post some big numbers, but we don't talk about money. We talk about managing that section of timber that has had crown kill from the drought. They have real world values based on real wealth. If you are fortunate enough to have a lot of money, I urge you to trade it for something of value that will actually do you some good.

 

[mark in portugal]

Balance in all things...
Stuff and property is (or can be at least) good. Money is also required in most places, for most people.

Money doesn't always make you happy; poverty however, will likely make you unhappy.

I have seen the rich become poor, and the poor become rich. Money is something that does need to be managed, just like your tractor, your car(s), your livestock, your health.

So I think this is a valid topic for discussion. It can't really be discussed in specialty forums due to intense fraud and scam pressure.

 

[Tpondel]

Excellent books on long term investing

Barry Ritholtz - How not to invest

Siegel - Stocks for the Long Run

Malkiel - Random walk down Wall Street


Vs day trading …

The vast majority of day traders are
unsuccessful; studies consistently show that between 70% and 95% of individuals lose money, and only a tiny fraction (around 1-3%) achieve consistent, long-term profitability.


Key Statistics on Day Trader Success
Multiple studies and data analyses reveal a challenging reality for day traders:

• High Failure Rate: Data from brokers and academic research indicates that most people who attempt day trading end up with financial losses. Some research suggests that 97% of those who persist for more than 300 days lose money.
• Short Duration: Approximately 40% of new day traders abandon the activity within the first month, and only 13% continue after three years.
• Underperformance: Active day traders, on average, tend to underperform the broader market, even during bull markets. Many would be financially better off simply investing in a low-cost index fund.
• Professional vs. Retail: The few individuals who are consistently profitable are often experienced professionals with substantial capital, advanced tools, institutional support, and rigorous discipline. Non-professional (retail) traders using their own money are far less likely to succeed.

 

[ultrarunner]

I rotated into t bills. The yields are falling so the price moves higher. They have an inverse relationship.

Might as well get safe while the stock market does its thing.

Any recommendations for my 403b 50% bond holdings?

 

[Tpondel]

My apologies...you do act like one. Meaning, the belief you are entitled to never ending returns.

I don’t follow.

Boomers invested thru:
1968 35% drop
1972 52% drop
1987 30% drop
2000 54% drop
2019 19% drop
2021 28% drop

Personally I would not refer to that as “never ending returns”. Especially considering the so called “lost decade” from 2000-2010.

If they sat still and didn’t panic out, yes, they were fine.

 

[Snobdds]

Any recommendations for my 403b 50% bond holdings?

Are those under your employers plan or are you free to purchase anything?

 

[Snobdds]

I don’t follow.

Boomers invested thru:
1968 35% drop
1972 52% drop
1987 30% drop
2000 54% drop
2019 19% drop
2021 28% drop

Personally I would not refer to that as “never ending returns”. Especially considering the so called “lost decade” from 2000-2010.

If they sat still and didn’t panic out, yes, they were fine.

Boomers can't afford another drop, their time horizon is gone. All those drops created value. They want endless returns.

I want to see a 50% haircut so there is value again out there.

Neat huh...

 

[ultrarunner]

Are those under your employers plan or are you free to purchase anything?

Employers plan which is target date with a T-Bill option but discouraged.

 

[DarkBlack]

When one knows how the RSI and MFI works...you can time the market.

Sure. How’s your market timing working for you?

My S&P stocks are up 33% since another one of your posts.

Is your technical market timing and migration to bonds, doing better than 33% since April ?

 

[Snobdds]

Employers plan which is target date with a T-Bill option but discouraged.

Ok.

How far out from retirement are you?

Do you have any penalties from rebalancing.

 

[Snobdds]

Sure. How’s your market timing working for you?

My S&P stocks are up 33% since another one of your posts.

View attachment 4424984



Is your timing and migration to bonds, doing better than 33% since April ?

Just keep holding on. The next milestone for you is 40%. You can get there.

 

[DarkBlack]

Just keep holding on. The next milestone for you is 40%. You can get there.

I’ll continue to hold the historical graph of the stock market upright.
You can continue your misery that it is so
Sooner or later you’ll be correct, and there will be a major correction.

 

[Snobdds]

I’ll continue to hold the historical graph of the stock market upright.
You can continue your misery that it is so

Very hostile for a soon to be billionaire.