How are your investments doing?

[ultrarunner]

I don’t have a lot in the market but company 401k.

It’s heavily weighted in bonds as a target date fund.

 

[Snobdds]

My biggest expense is taxes and property taxes lead… how can a typical starting out couple add $1000 to $1500 a month for property tax followed by another $500 to $700 for insurance and water bills with 80 gallons per day usage coming in at $150 month?

I have a bunch of rental properties too and the old formula that worked for years changed in 2022. It use to be, once you paid off a property...you should expect 2.5-3 months of rent would cover taxes, insurance, and any fees. That formula is now around 3-4 months of rent will cover taxes and insurance. Then I always contribute to a reserve account for capital improvements for all properties of 1.5 months of rent. So basically I have 5.5 months of rent going to expenses, leaving only 6.5 months of rent for profit. Plus I purposely keep rent about 10% below market rate, just to keep long term tenants and prevent turnover. Turnover is the silent killer of rental profits.

This is something the real estate bros never consider. They operate on cash flowing a property. Which means they have to have very high rent to squeak out margin on a monthly basis because they are all escrowed properties. This is a dumb way to manage real estate as it promotes turn over and each turn over costs about 2 months of rent.

This is going to change the housing market dynamic. Price decreases are not enough, with the cost of ancillaries...the price has to crater >50% to make affordability reflect income again.

 

[CloverKnollFarms]

Literally saw articles stating "stock market crash yesterday"...

It was 1%

What snowflakes. What in the actual hell.

People crack me up

Anxiety is running the world

 

[Snobdds]

There are signs of what is coming, if you look...

Loading…

www.cnbc.com

 

[ultrarunner]

I have a bunch of rental properties too and the old formula that worked for years changed in 2022. It use to be, once you paid off a property...you should expect 2.5-3 months of rent would cover taxes, insurance, and any fees. That formula is now around 3-4 months of rent will cover taxes and insurance. Then I always contribute to a reserve account for capital improvements for all properties of 1.5 months of rent. So basically I have 5.5 months of rent going to expenses, leaving only 6.5 months of rent for profit. Plus I purposely keep rent about 10% below market rate, just to keep long term tenants and prevent turnover. Turnover is the silent killer of rental profits.

This is something the real estate bros never consider. They operate on cash flowing a property. Which means they have to have very high rent to squeak out margin on a monthly basis because they are all escrowed properties. This is a dumb way to manage real estate as it promotes turn over and each turn over costs about 2 months of rent.

This is going to change the housing market dynamic. Price decreases are not enough, with the cost of ancillaries...the price has to crater >50% to make affordability reflect income again.

Yep… turnover is a killer and why I retain steady no issue renters…

Some going back to 1987… it was her mom and when the mom died she asked to stay.

Taxes are anywhere from 3 months rent to 7 months rent…

If the property were commercial expenses can figure but not on residential per assessor.

I know many, many mom and pops that got out or are getting out… these are good people that got clobbered during Covid and one bad renter with the full force of free legal often the last straw…

My brother is senior VP with a successful development company… company is California based but everything they do now is outside California… little to no interest in California projects and they have done some award winning across all segments.

Capital gravitates to markets conducive to business.

The list of Fortune 500 leaving is a who’s who and maybe boosted their stock by shifting focus to new markets?

When I travel I see lots of growth and familiar names that have fled my state…

If your forecast holds my longterm investments will suffer…

 

[MossRoad]

So what do I do with all the eggs then?

Family Style - Deep Dish Omelette Recipe - Food.com

My kids love omelettes. This ,of course, is a little more popular with the "grown ups." Enjoy!

www.food.com

 

[DarkBlack]

There are signs of what is coming, if you look...

Loading…

www.cnbc.com

If you are a future market skeptic as you appear to be, then you’ll absolutely love Jeremy Grantham. He’s the leading famous perma-bear.
He’s market correction, doom and gloom 365 days a year.

I watch him for humor occasionally.
As someone commented , “Jeremy has predicted 17 of the last 3 major market corrections

 

[Larry Caldwell]

I’m sorry , but you’re mistaken.
The market didn’t loose 60% in 1982.

View attachment 4336950

There’s almost 3 years, 1980-1983.
1982’s drop was around 11% at the lowest.

There was a general bearish decline that took 16 years to recover, which started in the late 60’s and recovered at the end of 1982.
Here’s the start of each year’s S&P in that period.

View attachment 4336951

I was thinking of the Dow, which went from over 2000 to 800, a drop of 60%. I can't remember what the drop was after 9/11, but I made a killing. The same thing happened in 2008. I had moved to cash because I thought the extreme runup in gas prices was going to suck all the money out of the economy and cause a recession. That worked, but then the big bank robbery hit and the whole world went down while I was sitting in cash. I put a buy order in, which happened to clear at the absolute bottom of the market. I made a killing again.

 

[Larry Caldwell]

So what do I do with all the eggs then?

You pray to them that they hatch instead of going rotten.

 

[Snobdds]

If you are a future market skeptic as you appear to be, then you’ll absolutely love Jeremy Grantham. He’s the leading famous perma-bear.
He’s market correction, doom and gloom 365 days a year.

I watch him for humor occasionally.
As someone commented , “Jeremy has predicted 17 of the last 3 major market corrections

Far from a perma bear. I just know that things are running out of steam and things will correct. The boomers thinking this party will never end and are paper rich have a huge awakening coming.

I'm trying to tell them to wake up, take the profits, and get out of the market. They do not have the time left on earth to recoup the losses.

 

[DarkBlack]

Far from a perma bear. I just know that things are running out of steam and things will correct. The boomers thinking this party will never end and are paper rich have a huge awakening coming.

I'm trying to tell them to wake up, take the profits, and get out of the market. They do not have the time left on earth to recoup the losses.

Boomers start at 61 years old right?
Personally, I don’t know if I’d tell people that young, to get out of the market today because of a feeling it’s going to have a major correction.
What if you’re wrong, and they miss more gains? A 61 year old has potentially 30 more years on this rock. That’s longer than any previous correction.
At my most pessimistic, I’d tell someone to go to quality dividend stocks and gold ETF’s. That way , they’re still in it for more upside, and downside protected with dividend income… but that’s just me.

 

[Hay Dude]

Boomers start at 61 years old right?
Personally, I don’t know if I’d tell people that young, to get out of the market today because of a feeling it’s going to have a major correction.
What if you’re wrong, and they miss more gains? A 61 year old has potentially 30 more years on this rock. That’s longer than any previous correction.
At my most pessimistic, I’d tell someone to go to quality dividend stocks and gold ETF’s. That way , they’re still in it for more upside, and downside protected with dividend income… but that’s just me.

I kind of did that, but years ago and I’m not 61.
I have my SEP IRA’s and I also have stocks for “fun” I trade within my Fidelity SEP IRA account.
Just to keep it fun

 

[Oaktree]

The boomers thinking this party will never end and are paper rich have a huge awakening coming.

I'm trying to tell them to wake up, take the profits, and get out of the market. They do not have the time left on earth to recoup the losses.

I'm a boomer, and I think no such thing. I'm also not about to sell off my portfolio and put it in my mattress because some think the sky is falling.

 

[Hay Dude]

There’s hundreds of “crash proof retirement” programs retirement age peeps can dump their savings into.
Most earn 5-7% average.

 

[Torvy]

Millennials arent Young, I think we are like 44 to 30 or something like that. I think people often lump 20 somethings in with them,
Gen X is like 45-60+; Boomers are 60+ to cold;


The generation thing doesn't really sense, Boomers are an 18 year span, 46-64 (18 years); Millenails are 81-96 (15 years), so X must be 64-80 (16 years). To top that off, i dont know there is really a defined start or stop to each gen

Historically, a generation was considered 20 years. 20 or 30 years ago, some academics needed to get a grant, so they readjusted the lines.

It really makes no sense. They are looking for some sociological break and made shorter 'generations'.

In reality, generation should be wider as people have waited longer to have children than in the past.

The only reason GenX has been surpassed is they took 5 years of Xers and made them Millenials.

 

[Torvy]

Ok, so why harp on what I said?

There are many markets to invest in. What is your point?

The point is that a narrow index like the DOW (short for Dow Jones Industrials) says little about the overall health of the economy. 30 manufacturers. 1 industry.

The S&P hasn't had a 50 year period where it didn't average at least 10% (7% after inflation). As the name suggests, it is 500 companies across various industries.

The DOW isn't the "market".

If you were going to invest in one without knowing anything about the companies or investing, it would be a better plan to invest in the broader index.

 

[riptides]

The point is that a narrow index like the DOW (short for Dow Jones Industrials) says little about the overall health of the economy. 30 manufacturers. 1 industry.

The S&P hasn't had a 50 year period where it didn't average at least 10% (7% after inflation). As the name suggests, it is 500 companies across various industries.

The DOW isn't the "market".

If you were going to invest in one without knowing anything about the companies or investing, it would be a better plan to invest in the broader index.

The context of my reply was based on a posters market dip of a significant percentage. I was pointing out that the DOW..over this year has had 1 percent and greater....dips at least once a month.

No where am I suggesting investing...or a plan on investing.

 

[Torvy]

The context of my reply was based on a posters market dip of a significant percentage. I was pointing out that the DOW..over this year has had 1 percent and greater....dips at least once a month.

No where am I suggesting investing...or a plan on investing.

You're still missing the point. The DOW isn't the "market". It's a narrow look at one industry.

 

[DarkBlack]

The context of my reply was based on a posters market dip of a significant percentage. I was pointing out that the DOW..over this year has had 1 percent and greater....dips at least once a month.

No where am I suggesting investing...or a plan on investing.

No. This is what you wrote that I responded to.

You only changed to the Dow, in a subsequent post , hence my reply.
I wasn’t “harping” on you. I only pointed out the market has been up, not down 1% per month as you stated

The Dow is only 30 companies. It’s not the “Market “

 

[mark in portugal]

Yep… turnover is a killer and why I retain steady no issue renters…

...

Taxes are anywhere from 3 months rent to 7 months rent…

I'm also in the residential rental business, but in Europe. When you say taxes, do you mean just the property taxes, or are you including the associated income tax you'll need to pay too?
Because that's a very surprising amount of tax.
I calculate 2 month rental income for my insurance, local property tax, and maintenance expenses (I'm competent at minimising the later).
Income tax is another thing.