Jobs Market isChanging

[sea2summit]

One of the reasons I don't watch pro sports anymore.

Amen to that!

 

[MossRoad]

Amen to that!

They lost me when baseball went on strike years ago.
So I switched to college.
Now I may switch to high school.

 

[scootr]

We can only conclude the world has already gone to hell-in-a-handbasket as my parents warned.
Now we can only sit by and watch.

 

[orezok]

I'll say it again. The labor shortage caused by a receding work ethic started with professional sports paying 6 figures, then millions. Kids saw ordinary people play ball for multi million dollar pay. Then they watched entrepreneurs and influencers on you tube getting rich fast doing fun stuff. It's no wonder they shied away from physical labor as a way to support themselves. Stock market champions and more get rich quick options...
Who do you think is going to fill these labor jobs? Certainly not young middle class america.
AI better advance fast to fill the labor shortage.

That’s exactly why we need a good immigration policy. We need those people who still have a good work ethic. As a contractor, my best workers were Hispanic and just wanted to provide for their families and live a decent life. They were not taking away jobs, they were performing the jobs the lazy Americans didn’t want.

 

[MossRoad]

Just a few years ago, $12.50 was an OK starting wage out of high school.
That's around $25K per year.
If you make $25K per year for 40 years you've made $1,000,000.
Average pro MLB player salary is over $4,000,000 per year.
Hmmm... that's 160 years at $12.50 an hour.

 

[MossRoad]

We can only conclude the world has already gone to hell-in-a-handbasket as my parents warned.
Now we can only sit by and watch.

Or start selling hand baskets.

 

[airbiscuit]

More Boomers are aging out of the workforce than there are Gen Zs coming in to replace them. That is a primary driver of the labor shortage.

 

[plowhog]

Just a few years ago, $12.50 was an OK starting wage out of high school.

My excavation contractor is a 3 man operation. Covid claimed one of them, and the company owner is terrible with admin stuff like hiring. I told him I would help him hire a general laborer.

To my surprise I learned (in my area) you cannot attract a general labor worker unless offering $26-$28 per hour to start. And other companies were throwing in a $3,000 bonus paid after 90 days of employment. The only requirements were to show up, and knowledge of how to operate a shovel.

 

[MinnesotaEric]

Amazon to lay off 10,000. The economy is strong as hell.

Big banks are laying off people too. In financial world it is super easy to get small: fire everybody and in the financial world banks get smaller because business is decreasing without any foreseeable increase over the next 18 months.

 

[MinnesotaEric]

More Boomers are aging out of the workforce than there are Gen Zs coming in to replace them. That is a primary driver of the labor shortage.

View attachment 770964

This needs context:

Properly stated, Gen whatztheirface Z is a larger group than boomers.

However, boomers that are retiring are retiring with mature skills sets that are more valuable that Gen whatztheirface Z entry-level skillsets.

Also Gen whatztheirface Z and the trailing end of the Millennials haven't hit peak baby-making' age, and this is in the context that younger people that have children are having their children later in life for all the stupid reasons we've all heard before.

Anyway, that is the context of the chart above.

That said, globally we are going to have a contraction in population because throughout the world the boomer generation didn't have as many kids with the exception of India, Mexico, and to some degree the USA. This reflects the slight decline in younger folks, but if we extended the chart, we'd see an uptick in people entering the workforce.

Ironically, it is the Millennials and Gen whatztheirface Z that will save our economy. God help us all, LOL.

 

[airbiscuit]

Well if 100 Boomers turn 65 and leave the labor force, and there are only 75 Gen Z's turning 18 entering the labor force, you have a net loss of available workers. The graphs don't show the total size of each generation. It shows the the trend lines for 18 year olds and 65 year olds.

I agree that mature skill sets are important, but 21st century shill sets are important too. It will be important for all generations to upskill to stay relevant in the ever changing career landscape.

 

[lman]

In my current job, I talk to a lot of people and employment is part of the discussion. Most of them are stating that employees in manufacturing are being laid off because work is slowing. The RV industry started laying off some time ago, but now I'm hearing that other manufacturing associated with products for new homes are slowing. One client said that 150 employees were laid off in the last couple of weeks. One guy told me that he is only working 3 days a week due to the RV slowdown and he only worked 9 days last month.

 

[orezok]

In my current job, I talk to a lot of people and employment is part of the discussion. Most of them are stating that employees in manufacturing are being laid off because work is slowing. The RV industry started laying off some time ago, but now I'm hearing that other manufacturing associated with products for new homes are slowing. One client said that 150 employees were laid off in the last couple of weeks. One guy told me that he is only working 3 days a week due to the RV slowdown and he only worked 9 days last month.

The deal with the RV industry is that when Covid hit, many people bought RV’s as they felt safer in an RV park than going to a hotel or in an air plane. Now that Covid has somewhat diminished, that are going back to their old ways.

Because of the rapid increase in demand, RV companies hired many people to meet the demand. BUT, now there is an excess of 1 to 2 year old “used” RV’s on the market as people decided RVing is not their thing

Excess employees when demand is low, cheap slightly used RV and the above is what happens.

 

[5030]

Now I may switch to high school.

HS is the best actually because there is no compensation involved, just kids doing their best.

 

[5030]

In my current job, I talk to a lot of people and employment is part of the discussion. Most of them are stating that employees in manufacturing are being laid off because work is slowing. The RV industry started laying off some time ago, but now I'm hearing that other manufacturing associated with products for new homes are slowing. One client said that 150 employees were laid off in the last couple of weeks. One guy told me that he is only working 3 days a week due to the RV slowdown and he only worked 9 days last month.

I bet Warren Buffet isn't happy about that. His company, Berkshire Hathaway owns the majority of the RV builders.

 

[npalen]

Let's put that in perspective.

With more than 1.5 million employees, that's 0.6667 of their workforce.

That would be the equivalent of a company with about 130 employees laying off 1 person.

The release from the company said they had to scramble to hire massive numbers of people at the start of the pandemic to satisfy the demand of people shopping from home. Now that people are going outdoors again, back to work, etc... the demand is slowing. They said it's a whipsaw effect, and their efficiency analysis said many were duplicate jobs that took a while to ferret out.

There were over 220,000 jobs added in the U.S. in October.

There hasn't been one month since January 2021 where jobs haven't been added.

View attachment 770929

That's not to make light of the fact that 10,000 people lost their jobs. It's just putting things in perspective of the overall job market and the big picture of the current employment situation.

0.6667? Did you forget the % symbol?

 

[airbiscuit]

I bet Warren Buffet isn't happy about that. His company, Berkshire Hathaway owns the majority of the RV builders.

He seems to be doing okay ....

 

[jyoutz]

I bet Warren Buffet isn't happy about that. His company, Berkshire Hathaway owns the majority of the RV builders.

I don’t think Warren will starve. He’ll probably have enough change to continue buying his McDonalds breakfast every morning.

 

[hiddentacocatneddih]

One issue i see is an older person may have occupied a job for 20-30 years and is now retiring but the company never had a person learning the job to fill their place till the last second. they hire a new person and expect the same output and run em off. and in a skilled industry, no reason to stay if your unhappy, theres plenty of jobs to choose from.

 

[lman]

The deal with the RV industry is that when Covid hit, many people bought RV’s as they felt safer in an RV park than going to a hotel or in an air plane. Now that Covid has somewhat diminished, that are going back to their old ways.

Because of the rapid increase in demand, RV companies hired many people to meet the demand. BUT, now there is an excess of 1 to 2 year old “used” RV’s on the market as people decided RVing is not their thing

Excess employees when demand is low, cheap slightly used RV and the above is what happens.

The biggest killer for the RV industry is the high price of fuel. The RV industry went downhill several years ago also when the fuel price went sky high.