Cognitive bias....

[sea2summit]

Ever stare at a problem for over a year, prepare yourself to spend money on it, then one day the light comes on?

I've got a disc mower for hay, it has one hydraulic hose that uses the float detent valve. No problem. I decided put it on a caddy to relieve the stress on the tractor which in turn also has a single hose to raise and lower the "3-point" the mower rides on. Problem, I've only got one floating detent valve. All last year when I needed to transport I'd raise the mower, lock it in position, disconnect it's hose, connect the caddy's hose and raise the "3-point" then repeat when I got to the work site.

Really a pain, got all ready to order another floating detent valve last week to get ready for this hay season. Then my brain said "hey, if it only needs pressure to raise and the detent only releases the pressure do you really have to use the "up" position with the lever to raise it? Why couldn't you also use the "down" side of the lever?"

Not sure if anyone else's brain sometimes gets in the way of easy solutions but feel free to post them up and make me feel better

 

[Jstpssng]

I usually think of things after spending money unnecessarily.

 

[Tx Jim]

My Krone disk mower is mounted on a caddy that also has a hyd cylinder to adjust height if disc mower 3 pt hitch. I pull it with tractors with 2 sets if rear remotes. I only attach hose that operates ""caddy cylinder"" if disc mower 3 pt hitch has settled. If 3 pt/input pto shaft of cutter is at correct height I only attach hose for hyd cylinder that controls cutter bar & leave 3 pt hitch cylinder rod where it is located & hose disconnected.

 

[sea2summit]

My Krone disk mower is mounted on a caddy that also has a hyd cylinder to adjust height if disc mower 3 pt hitch. I pull it with tractors with 2 sets if rear remotes. I only attach hose that operates ""caddy cylinder"" if disc mower 3 pt hitch has settled. If 3 pt/input pto shaft of cutter is at correct height I only attach hose for hyd cylinder that controls cutter bar & leave 3 pt hitch cylinder rod where it is located & hose disconnected.

Yeah, I don’t own any of my fields so constantly roading it and that’s the only time I need to raise it at the caddy, don’t wanna risk a bump.

 

[bdhsfz6]

I frequently overthink issues like this. I call it "analysis paralysis"

 

[Tx Jim]

Yeah, I don’t own any of my fields so constantly roading it and that’s the only time I need to raise it at the caddy, don’t wanna risk a bump.

I utilize my cutter to custom cut other folks fields so my cutter gets pulled on the local roads regularly during hay season. Natural gas drilling salt water hauling trucks/trailers have made local county roads very rough but so far no need to raise cutter 3 pt height during road transportation. The higher the 3 pt of cutter is raised during road transport the greater the chance cutter bar can contact an overhead obstacle.

 

[Hay Dude]

I owned a couple different hay cutting machines over the years. If doing custom work in damp climates, like some of us do, speed is of the essence.
First I had a self propelled. Very cheap to buy because it’s yesterday’s technology. Worked okay with sharp super tiger shark blades, but a lot of maintenance. Couldn’t cut fast enough to make money

Sold the SP and moved on to (2) different pull types. Both worked well. One was a larger center pivot and the second was a side pull. They were faster, but had drawbacks in tight fields.

Eventually I came to realize a front mower was still the best option for MY situation. I put it in front of a road speed tractor that wastes little time driving between fields. It was hard to find a rig with a front 3 point and PTO I could afford, but it’s long been paid off and overall a great tractor. I can remove the front mower and do other work with the tractor.

Haying is a process of adaptation to your changing company model and size. Your idea of adapting is going to be what helps you succeed going into your haying business. Keep trying and keep gathering up more land. Anything I can do to help, just ask.

 

[bironacad]

This is what I thought this thread would delve into, lol:

Francis Bacon describes confirmation bias so:



“The human understanding, when it has once adopted an opinion draws all things … to support and agree with it. And though there be a greater number and weight of instances to be found on the other side, yet these it either neglects and despises or … sets aside and rejects in order that by this great and pernicious predetermination, the authority of its former conclusions may remain inviolate”. (Francis Bacon 1602).

Seems this is a human deal and has been going on for a long time? Try and tell a Ford guy the merits of a Chev, lol.

 

[sea2summit]

This is what I thought this thread would delve into, lol:

Francis Bacon describes confirmation bias so:



“The human understanding, when it has once adopted an opinion draws all things … to support and agree with it. And though there be a greater number and weight of instances to be found on the other side, yet these it either neglects and despises or … sets aside and rejects in order that by this great and pernicious predetermination, the authority of its former conclusions may remain inviolate”. (Francis Bacon 1602).

Seems this is a human deal and has been going on for a long time? Try and tell a Ford guy the merits of a Chev, lol.

Confirmation bias and cognitive are pretty far from each other as far as thinking patterns go. As a hard corps introvert I’m much more often a victim of cognitive biases and would probably never be accused of confirmation bias…probably exactly the he opposite

 

[sea2summit]

I owned a couple different hay cutting machines over the years. If doing custom work in damp climates, like some of us do, speed is of the essence.
First I had a self propelled. Very cheap to buy because it’s yesterday’s technology. Worked okay with sharp super tiger shark blades, but a lot of maintenance. Couldn’t cut fast enough to make money

View attachment 738004

Sold the SP and moved on to (2) different pull types. Both worked well. One was a larger center pivot and the second was a side pull. They were faster, but had drawbacks in tight fields.

Eventually I came to realize a front mower was still the best option for MY situation. I put it in front of a road speed tractor that wastes little time driving between fields. It was hard to find a rig with a front 3 point and PTO I could afford, but it’s long been paid off and overall a great tractor. I can remove the front mower and do other work with the tractor.

View attachment 738006

Haying is a process of adaptation to your changing company model and size. Your idea of adapting is going to be what helps you succeed going into your haying business. Keep trying and keep gathering up more land. Anything I can do to help, just ask.

No more land for this guy right now, I’m just hoping my business model will pay for fertilizer and fuel!

 

[beowulf]

I'm way too smart for that. I even learned how to bend an auger. Dig a hole with your PHD, and then don't pull it all the way out and drive forward. Works even better in the Summer when the ground is hard. You're welcome.

 

[5030]

No more land for this guy right now, I’m just hoping my business model will pay for fertilizer and fuel!

Good luck on that this year, I lucked out on the amendment end. Have 2 ton pallets of 46 granulated in the barn at last years price which is half of this years plus I have 4 gallons of 24d(B) on hand as well. Not so good on the fuel however. Not nearly enough on hand so I'm kind of watching the price presently. Potash is non existent here and lime is hard to get too.

 

[bironacad]

Bias? Opinion? Pretty far apart? Anyway to each his own.

 

[oosik]

Many, many problems/tasks have been solved while I sleep. Go to bed with the problem/task on my brain. The 'ol noodle works on it - all night - as I sleep. Solution is obvious when I awaken in the AM.

 

[bironacad]

Sea2, I must admit here that I skimmed your post and the replies with my own bias. It is an interesting topic the idea that my decision process is often, an if this then that, without engaging deeply the topic.
I am not sure if this is part of the Information Age or what.
So upon reflection, a pause if you would, I went back and reread your post. I find it very useful when faced with a challenge to pause and just leave it alone and let the subconscious come up with stuff. The other useful tool is to do what is done here, that is to reach out and get others experience and ideas to engage, hopefully. Lol Be well and keep reaching out.

 

[newbury]

I will often come across a hardware problem/project that is not life threatening but I know there has to be a better way. I've found if I set it aside for a bit the solution will generally come to me. Glad I've LOTS of shop space for "set asides".

 

[dodge man]

It’s amazing how smart we can be but yet so stupid, myself included. It’s not uncommon I run into a problem, can’t get past, then I just step back and the answer is right there in front of you.

 

[Hay Dude]

No more land for this guy right now, I’m just hoping my business model will pay for fertilizer and fuel!

One of the biggest keys to profitable farming is lowering your input costs. Remember the old adages about farming? “farming is the only business where you buy all your supplies at retail, then sell all your crops at wholesale”
Find any way you can to decrease your input costs. If I were in your shoes, I’d be looking for cheap sources of fertilizer (local poultry houses, sources of organic fertilizer). Ask your landowners if they’d be ok with it before you spread…..just in case they aren’t…..some aren’t.
Find the cheapest source of reliable off road diesel and get a good storage tank. Go talk to your local farm bank/credit union/extension.
Get soil samples off your fields and send them to your local testing labs and see what each field needs.
You may have a local customer base looking for organic grown hay. That has been a gold mine for me. People are getting away from ingesting chemicals not just in their bodies, but in the bodies of the animals they eat, too.

 

[sea2summit]

Sea2, I must admit here that I skimmed your post and the replies with my own bias. It is an interesting topic the idea that my decision process is often, an if this then that, without engaging deeply the topic.
I am not sure if this is part of the Information Age or what.
So upon reflection, a pause if you would, I went back and reread your post. I find it very useful when faced with a challenge to pause and just leave it alone and let the subconscious come up with stuff. The other useful tool is to do what is done here, that is to reach out and get others experience and ideas to engage, hopefully. Lol Be well and keep reaching out.

Sounds like cognitive bias

 

[sea2summit]

I will often come across a hardware problem/project that is not life threatening but I know there has to be a better way. I've found if I set it aside for a bit the solution will generally come to me. Glad I've LOTS of shop space for "set asides".

I’ve sometimes done that for months, it does work. It’s like I tell my children when they’re writing, you can’t go straight back and proof read. You have to step back, let your brain let go of it’s involvement then come back and proof read.