The Sky is Falling

[ponytug]

It is currently falling at about 25,000 ft / sec. More info at CZ-5B / 48275 / 2021-035B

Estimated impact time is Saturday night to Sunday morning (60% probability, spanning close to ten hours). It is hard to predict the deorbit time, because it is a long thin object (30m close to 100').

Because of the orbit, it spends more time at 41 deg. North/South, which makes the impact more likely there, slightly.

Apparently, it was supposed to actively deorbit, and something failed. As @MossRoad points out, it is one of the largest objects to deorbit in a less than controlled manner in the last thirty years.

So, yes, heads up! Though low probability...

All the best,

Peter

 

[MossRoad]

Yes, it slows.... though how much depends on the drag created -- which is also a function of the speed and potentially orientation/stability of the falling object.

Some things burn up completely, some things don't .....and some things break up in descent really depends on construction of the item.

....either way unless things are intentionally slowed impact velocities generally aren't trivial even at realtively "slow" aircraft flight speeds.

I think it's going to slow to terminal velocity before it hits the ground, which will be subsonic and probably around 2-300mph at best.

Remember, nothing is pushing it down. And it has to fight air friction. Everything that falls unassisted reaches its terminal velocity at most. It can't go faster.

 

[MossRoad]

It would be pretty cool to witness it re-enter over the ocean.

 

[bigtiller]

It is currently falling at about 25,000 ft / sec. More info at CZ-5B / 48275 / 2021-035B

Estimated impact time is Saturday night to Sunday morning (60% probability, spanning close to ten hours). It is hard to predict the deorbit time, because it is a long thin object (30m close to 100').

Because of the orbit, it spends more time at 41 deg. North/South, which makes the impact more likely there, slightly.

Apparently, it was supposed to actively deorbit, and something failed. As @MossRoad points out, it is one of the largest objects to deorbit in a less than controlled manner in the last thirty years.

So, yes, heads up! Though low probability...

All the best,

Peter

uh-oh, I'm not to far away from the forty-first parallel.

 

[Thomas]

Littering wonder what the fine might be.

 

[Deere Dude]

I hope it lands on China.

 

[Danno1]

.


Shoulda used Snap-On instead of Horrible Freight!


.

 

[txndncowboy]

I hope it lands on China.

That would be awesome. Wonder if our military has a secret weapon they can use to guide that sucker right to China? Only problem with that would be, it might disrupt all the Chinese parts, groceries and junk we receive in this country almost daily.

 

[Frankenkubota]

I think it's going to slow to terminal velocity before it hits the ground, which will be subsonic and probably around 2-300mph at best.

Remember, nothing is pushing it down. And it has to fight air friction. Everything that falls unassisted reaches its terminal velocity at most. It can't go faster.

gravity is pushing it down

 

[MossRoad]

Gravity pulls. Here's an explanation for kids.

What Is Gravity? | NASA Space Place – NASA Science for Kids

Gravity is the force by which a planet or other body draws objects toward its center.

spaceplace.nasa.gov