Corona Virus #4

[rswyan]

Let’s try this:

Don't be Italy / Yuri Vishnevsky / Observable

Nope ... that ain’t it either.

 

[California]

Here's an article linked from Digg that has individual curves (like above) for several places including state of Washington, California, NYC. And in particular Massachusetts where they say testing is late and inadequate so the curve will be steeper.

Don't be Italy

Link doesnt work.

It works, just slow. I saw a delay of several seconds the first time, and again the first time I reviewed the draft of my post. Quick thereafter.

Its also accessible via the link on Digg.com. (Scroll down to 'Charting The Effects Of Waiting Too Long').That link has additional junk saying the reader arrived via Digg.

 

[California]

Let’s try this:

Don't be Italy / Yuri Vishnevsky / Observable

Nope ... that ain’t it either.

Strange. Your version went right to it.

 

[rswyan]

Thanks ...

 

[dragoneggs]

Likely too late at this point ... although the steps our Governor has taken are promising.

Can only hope more get onboard.

Basically he's acting to shutdown vectors for the spread within the local "community" (aka Ohio) by dramatically limiting contacts within larger groups.

Given the high transmissibility, it's a good/smart move ... and within his authority (at least so far)



I have a somewhat different assessment.

Nope ... at this point, the phobia needs to be at far more basic level: ... your fellow individual human being ... regardless of where they hail from.

In this particular instance, it isn't a bad thing.

I agree... at this point. And at the risk of starting CV #5...

Your words... "Basically he's acting to shutdown vectors for the spread within the local "community" (aka Ohio) by dramatically limiting contacts within larger groups.

Given the high transmissibility, it's a good/smart move ... and within his authority (at least so far)"

Where do you draw the line? Seems the same actions were being put forward at macro level a few weeks ago. Glad someone is not leading from behind.

Personally, I think we (media 24/7) are overreacting in the grand scheme of things. Lots of people will be/are being hurt by this no doubt, but I think it seems we are easily distracted by the shiny object... good or bad. Hard to blame the media though because in our world now, it needs to 'sell'.

I hope I am wrong that this is as serious as being touted. We don't know where this is leading... but that is life.

 

[rswyan]

I agree... at this point. And at the risk of starting CV #5...

Your words... "Basically he's acting to shutdown vectors for the spread within the local "community" (aka Ohio) by dramatically limiting contacts within larger groups.

Given the high transmissibility, it's a good/smart move ... and within his authority (at least so far)"

Where do you draw the line?

I'll answer in a manner that will hopefully avoid the need for a #5 ...

With this disease ... given the relative unfamiliarity, the unknowns, and the high rate of transmissibility ... plus the elevated death rate in certain populations ?

I'd be drawing it pretty sharply ... on the side of caution.

That would be the conservative approach wouldn't it ?

Seems the same actions were being put forward at macro level a few weeks ago. Glad someone is not leading from behind.

Surely you are kidding.

All I'll say is:

I think you need to take a look at an article from the Chicago Tribune - which I think was originally carried in the NYT - I posted elsewhere (FP, maybe in the "Politics of the Corona Virus" thread)

But I am glad the governors and state/local officials - including a significant number of Republicans - are stepping up.

Personally, I think we (media 24/7) are overreacting in the grand scheme of things.

Then quit paying attention to "THE MEDIA" ... if that's your Big Boogey Man ... but start paying ATTENTION to what the HEALTHCARE EXPERTS are saying.

Acquaint yourself with what Dr. Fauci had to say this past Sunday:

Focus on his answers ... not the questioner's questions ... if those are what triggers you.

Lots of people will be/are being hurt by this no doubt, but I think it seems we are easily distracted by the shiny object... good or bad.

This ain't no shiny object ...

Hard to blame the media though because in our world now, it needs to 'sell'.

This is a public health emergency.

I'm sorry if you find that inconvenient - either politically or otherwise.

I hope I am wrong that this is as serious as being touted. We don't know where this is leading... but that is life.

At least until it's death ...

 

[rswyan]

Strange. Your version went right to it.

Really ?

Didn't for me ... go figure ... :confused2:

 

[aczlan]

Duplicating Italy is inevitable now. Social distancing can only slow down the contagion curve, not cancel it.

Repeating the chart I posted a few pages back:

Given that we have 5 times the population, if we can keep the number of those who are infected and in a need of critical care to the same as Italy, we will be doing very well.

Aaron Z

 

[rswyan]

That's a big "if" ...

White House Takes New Line After Dire Report on Death Toll - The New York Times

 

[daugen]

I was hoping to send in a check to pay off my 4707, and I've watched that money fly out the window in the stock market.
I sure remember 2008, somehow this seems more worrisome. Market and investor confidence needs to see some end in sight.
Most of us expected a correction/downturn; common question now is how low can we go.
I expect to see more factories shutting down for lack of parts.

Another robocall from City of Washington stating that electric shutoffs due to non payment were currently suspended.
Stay safe and healthy everyone.

 

[rswyan]

You too Drew ...

 

[daugen]

Thanks RS, nice to hear from you.

 

[riptides]

Here is the direct report I think the NYT was referencing. Thanks rswyan.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

 

[tradosaurus]

Duplicating Italy is inevitable now. Social distancing can only slow down the contagion curve, not cancel it.

Repeating the chart I posted a few pages back:

Now plot that for the regular flu.

 

[riptides]

Now plot that for the regular flu.

What's regular flu got to do with this?

 

[daugen]

if one wore a N95 mask or better, and used latex gloves, probably hard to catch this virus or the regular flu too.
So it can be avoided. Though I think any parent dealing with kids is going to have their hands full, as usual.
This is just another virus piled on top of existing annual flus. Just seems to be a new big dog in town...

Masks are not the styling statement lots of folks are used to. Unless you live in Mexico City or much of China.
I read that a big issue on the masks is being able to squeeze the area around the nose to get a better seal. Just like when you are wearing
a paint respirator, at least there you know you shouldn't be smelling much of anything, and if you are, you have a leak. No smell
to the virus...

I looked in mirror when wearing my black nylon mask, which I found comfortable, but too tight on me since it appears they sent
me a Medium when I needed something a bit larger. Velcro strap just engages at very end.
The edges all lay down closely to my face, so I feel pretty safe in it. I was worried I'd look like a bank robber, did get a few head turns
in Walmart.

Main street retail America must be taking a serious hit now.
Amazon has been quoting much longer delivery dates, even for regular two day stuff.
I've seen 5-7 days quoted at times.

Would it seem too draconian to demand store owners disinfect their major touch points several times a day?
And have a sign saying they abide by xyz health practices, like the score card the health dept gives
restaurants in our area. They are usually in the 90's, but I've seen some ones lower than that.
Many of us would shop more locally if we felt safer doing so. Now Billionaire Bezos just gets richer...

Yesterday while at the shipping store locally, I saw a big shipment of cased MRE's coming in the door.
I had never seen that before. Didn't know you could order civilian MRE's.
Stocking a shelter?

 

[Diggin It]

Yesterday while at the shipping store locally, I saw a big shipment of cased MRE's coming in the door.
I had never seen that before. Didn't know you could order civilian MRE's.
Stocking a shelter?

Campers and hikers use them a lot. I've seen them in several outdoors type stores like Dick's.

 

[rswyan]

What's regular flu got to do with this?

Nothing.

 

[riptides]

The CDC estimates that, on average, about 8% of the U.S. population gets sick with the flu each season.

Coronavirus Disease 219 vs. the Flu | Johns Hopkins Medicine

Deaths so far for the Coronavirus is 80. CDC estimated that influenza (flu) has resulted in between 9 million 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 61,000 deaths annually since 2010. So about 120-6,100 deaths per year due to the flu.

H1N1 swine flu has killed as many as 17,000 Americans, including 1,800 children, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported

Where is the hysteria for the flu? Why weren't schools and business shut down for the swine flu?

Oh yes, the mainstream news hate Trump and want to see him blamed for the present day virus.

Quit feeding the hysteria!

Oh, OK.

This is not the flu. The administration from the top down is addressing it as to what it is. A new contagion that has created a global pandemic.

Look beyond your political views.