China Corona virus

[Paddy]

Anyone cancel travel to China? I was booked to fly to China Fed 15th but will delay until summer. I'm pretty impressed the lockdown of most of Hubei province has kept most of the infected and death to one region. John Hopkins has a good website for tracking.

Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS

 

[RNeumann]

Too much news for you....

You shouldn’t be in the USA- we’ve had over 8000 deaths from our flu!


219-2 U.S. Flu Season: Preliminary Burden Estimates | CDC

 

[ruffdog]

Coronavirus has a much higher mortality rate than the common influenza bugs....it will probably spread world wide.

 

[EddieWalker]

My biggest concern is that I have zero confidence in the Chinese at being honest about how bad it really is. If they say 100 deaths, I'm thinking its 1,000 deaths.

 

[East30]

What I've found lacking in the news reporting is who's dying. Is it older frail people, young healthy, babies, a mix of all??

 

[desertdog71]

I don't have any worries about going to China. Every year there is some plague that's going to kill everybody and it never does. SARS, Monkey Pox, Ebolla, Swine Flu, this year its Corona Virus. Don't go licking doorknobs and wash your hands.

 

[PILOON]

Think this one over.
I spent a few hours with a person yesterday only to discover he had attended an event that had a room full of Chinese just a few days prior.
LOL, he never sneezed nor were we closer than 5 ft.

 

[RNeumann]

Death rate in tractors 23/100,000
Death rate in cars USA 12/100,000
Death of the flu USA 95/100,000

Death rate of flu China (outside Hubei) 300/100,000. This is a 0.2% increase from the regular USA flu. If we start changing life plans because of a 0.2% increase chance of death we are screwed!

But if that’s stopping someone, consider the death rate for coronary artery disease and heart attacks- 25,000/100,000!!!! We, as a population, do way more to ourselves with diet and exercise (or lack of) then the flu does!

We tend to over react to things. Say someone died in a helicopter crash. We wouldn’t expect the family to arrive at the funeral in a helicopter. We might even say that is poor taste. But if a family member died in a car crash, everyone would still arrive in cars!

Of the flu deaths, most of the adults are people who already have health issues- AIDS, COPD, Congestive Heart Failure, cancer, obesity or a weakened immune system.

This isn’t like MERS or the Swine Flu where the deaths were 34,000/100,000.

 

[rekees4300]

Now we know the true source of the virus. :licking:

 

[EddieWalker]

Death of the flu USA 95/100,000

Death rate of flu China (outside Hubei) 300/100,000. This is a 0.2% increase from the regular USA flu.

How did you do the math to come up with a 0.2% increase going from 95/100,000 to 300/100,000?

 

[fordmantpw]

How did you do the math to come up with a 0.2% increase going from 95/100,000 to 300/100,000?

He took the percentage of deaths of the flu and subtracted that from the percentage of deaths for the coronavirus.

95/100k = .00095, or .095%
300/100k = .003, or .3%

.3 - .095 = .205 ~ .2% difference.

Of course, that is completely incorrect in what he was trying to state, just showing how he calculated it.

In reality, a person is 316% more likely to die from coronavirus than the USA flu: .3/.095.

I'm a math nerd...

 

[desertdog71]

not sure I believe the math or the stats used to calculate it.

 

[EddieWalker]

He took the percentage of deaths of the flu and subtracted that from the percentage of deaths for the coronavirus.

95/100k = .00095, or .095%
300/100k = .003, or .3%

.3 - .095 = .205 ~ .2% difference.

Of course, that is completely incorrect in what he was trying to state, just showing how he calculated it.

In reality, a person is 316% more likely to die from coronavirus than the USA flu: .3/.095.

I'm a math nerd...

Appreciate it. At a glance, I figured a little over 300% more likely, but didn't know how to do the math.

 

[ptsg]

I believe the main difference on this one, is that the virus will actually spread and infect other people before the patient gets any sort of symptom. This makes it even hard to trace.

 

[dannoGT]

Death rate in tractors 23/100,000

Death rate in cars USA 12/100,000

Death of the flu USA 95/100,000

So if I am driving my Chinese tractor on the road in the USA with a Corona I'm guessing I'm pretty much guaranteed to become a statistic!

Danno

 

[Paddy]

Too much news for you....

You shouldn稚 be in the USA- we致e had over 8000 deaths from our flu!


219-22 U.S. Flu Season: Preliminary Burden Estimates | CDC

But getting sick in China is way different than getting sick in the USA. Ever visit a clinic in China with a thousand other sick people? I'm not wanting to go see what's that's like.
Also, I'm no spring chicken either, turning 60 soon. Many travelers do get sick easier due to being weaken by jet lag.

Lastly, I visit supplier when I'm in China. Often these are really small villages with old school hygiene practice. All meals are served "family style". This means there are 10 bowls of food and everyone picks through them with their chopsticks. I try to get a serving spoon and load up first. In 12 years of travels I have really come down with anything.

 

[Fuddy1952]

Death rate in tractors 23/100,000

Death rate in cars USA 12/100,000

Death of the flu USA 95/100,000

So if I am driving my Chinese tractor on the road in the USA with a Corona I'm guessing I'm pretty much guaranteed to become a statistic!

Danno

Only if you have the flu and hit a car.

 

[ruffdog]

Corona beer is the anti-virus for the Coronavirus......the more you drink, the safer you are! :stirthepot:

 

[cdaigle430]

The coronavirus is nothing to laugh at and should be well respected. Yes we had 8000 flu deaths vs the couple hundred coronavirus deaths but....we dont have a vaccination yet for the coronavirus. We do for the flu which has many strings to it....the vaccination has saved so many lives. The potential for the coronavirus can be devastating to everyone....there is no way to stop it other than quarantine...therefore it must be political to stop it.

So good luck with all your theories. I just got back from Brazil and in Sao Paulo and JFK airports there were many people wearing masks from China and US. Plane rides are particularly worrisome because the air in these planes are recirculated over and over again.

 

[desertdog71]

The coronavirus is nothing to laugh at and should be well respected. Yes we had 8000 flu deaths vs the couple hundred coronavirus deaths but....we dont have a vaccination yet for the coronavirus. We do for the flu which has many strings to it....the vaccination has saved so many lives. The potential for the coronavirus can be devastating to everyone....there is no way to stop it other than quarantine...therefore it must be political to stop it.

So good luck with all your theories. I just got back from Brazil and in Sao Paulo and JFK airports there were many people wearing masks from China and US. Plane rides are particularly worrisome because the air in these planes are recirculated over and over again.

Airplane air comes from the compressor section of the engine and cabin air is replaced at a very high rate. Might want to recheck your facts on the that. People from Asia where masks all the time, its not unusual at all.