smstonypoint
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Quotes are from post #58 unless noted otherwise.
So, based on a conversation with an individual who has apparently read the Carroll book, it is an accepted fact that "ticks were what became 'weaponized', for what purpose I don't know, nor do I care why it came about. It just happened, for all the wrong reasons, and it escaped its boundaries; now it's rampant."
Have you ever noticed that authors who write for the mass market often make sensational claims that don't stand up to scrutiny?
Have you ever heard the expression "Correlation does not imply causality"?
The fact that the disease was first identified in Lyme doesn't imply that it originated there.
Here's the link to the Ice Man study: New insights into the Tyrolean Iceman's origin and phenotype as inferred by whole-genome sequencing | Nature Communications.
I'm not sure whether you will accept the results from a peer-reviewed article, seeing as how the topic didn't come up in your conversation with the individual who you perceive as being very knowledgeable about Lyme disease.
If I struck up a conversation with an individual and the Alchian-Allen theorem came up, I am confident that I would be be able to assess whether he/she is blowing smoke. On the other hand, if string theory came up, I wouldn't have a clue as to his/her credibility. I certainly wouldn't accept his/her comments as being factual. Before spouting off in public about string theory, I would try to do my own research in order to assess the credibility of the individual.
In my opinion, an ambitious trial lawyer would be beating a path to the nearest Federal Court to submit a class action lawsuit for those afflicted by Lyme disease if there was any credible evidence that the Federal Government "weaponized" ticks that later escaped from Plum Island.
Have there been any such lawsuits? If not, the conspiracy theory doesn't pass the smell test in my book.
Have Representatives and/or Senators from Connecticut requested an investigation based on the "fact" that "ticks were what became 'weaponized', for what purpose I don't know, nor do I care why it came about. It just happened, for all the wrong reasons, and it escaped its boundaries; now it's rampant."
So, you have problems with the study's findings. Here a link to the full study: MLST of housekeeping genes captures geographic population structure and suggests a European origin of Borrelia burgdorferi.
Publication in a scientific journal is a "trial by fire" for the authors' ideas. Here's a golden opportunity for you. You can obtain the researchers' data, conduct your own analysis, and then submit a comment to the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science in which you document the flaws in the study.
This is not an article providing a proof in a math journal. Statistical inference is used, and so Type I and Type II errors are in play. Authors use terms like "suggest" and "appear" in recognition that those errors can occur.
The study was funded by the Wellcome Trust (a UK-based biomedical charity) and the NIH. Do you have any evidence that either organization tries to "buy" research outcomes?
So, conclusions as to the origin of Lyme disease should be based on public opinion rather than scientific evidence? How do you square that statement with your statement that "
o, science is based on facts, not wishful thinking or creationism and other devoid of facts nonsense"? What other scientific questions should be addressed by public opinion?
BTW, here are some examples of public opinion according to 25 Unbelievable Things Americans Believe.
"More than half of Americans suspect that a secretive global elite is trying to create a New World Order."
"More than three quarters of Americans believe there are indisputable evidences that aliens have already visited our planet."
Steve
IF YOU say so, it must be TRUTH, huh?!
And, NOT necessarily - Lyme is where it was named Lyme. Plum Island is where biological experiments were taking place and ticks were what became 'weaponized', for what purpose I don't know, nor do I care why it came about. It just happened, for all the wrong reasons, and it escaped its boundaries; now it's rampant... You do the arithmetic.
YOU say it's more evident elsewhere, NOW, but not when it was discovered and named.
You also say the Ice Man has it/had it - Lyme. Show proof he has/had it.
Aliens from outer space probably have it now too, but I'm not saying they do or don't, just that they might.
So, based on a conversation with an individual who has apparently read the Carroll book, it is an accepted fact that "ticks were what became 'weaponized', for what purpose I don't know, nor do I care why it came about. It just happened, for all the wrong reasons, and it escaped its boundaries; now it's rampant."
Have you ever noticed that authors who write for the mass market often make sensational claims that don't stand up to scrutiny?
Have you ever heard the expression "Correlation does not imply causality"?
The fact that the disease was first identified in Lyme doesn't imply that it originated there.
Here's the link to the Ice Man study: New insights into the Tyrolean Iceman's origin and phenotype as inferred by whole-genome sequencing | Nature Communications.
I'm not sure whether you will accept the results from a peer-reviewed article, seeing as how the topic didn't come up in your conversation with the individual who you perceive as being very knowledgeable about Lyme disease.
I don't 'judge' my friends, nor do I need to justify their credibility.
If I struck up a conversation with an individual and the Alchian-Allen theorem came up, I am confident that I would be be able to assess whether he/she is blowing smoke. On the other hand, if string theory came up, I wouldn't have a clue as to his/her credibility. I certainly wouldn't accept his/her comments as being factual. Before spouting off in public about string theory, I would try to do my own research in order to assess the credibility of the individual.
Not everything one knows can be easily proven to be the case, but that doesn't make it false.
In my opinion, an ambitious trial lawyer would be beating a path to the nearest Federal Court to submit a class action lawsuit for those afflicted by Lyme disease if there was any credible evidence that the Federal Government "weaponized" ticks that later escaped from Plum Island.
Have there been any such lawsuits? If not, the conspiracy theory doesn't pass the smell test in my book.
Have Representatives and/or Senators from Connecticut requested an investigation based on the "fact" that "ticks were what became 'weaponized', for what purpose I don't know, nor do I care why it came about. It just happened, for all the wrong reasons, and it escaped its boundaries; now it's rampant."
Not real scientific from where I sit. It's a study, not fact just because researchers did research. Depending on who is the money behind studies, the outcome is often tainted or pointed in the direction the 'buyers' want to see a particular conclusion for their own agendas.
So, you have problems with the study's findings. Here a link to the full study: MLST of housekeeping genes captures geographic population structure and suggests a European origin of Borrelia burgdorferi.
Publication in a scientific journal is a "trial by fire" for the authors' ideas. Here's a golden opportunity for you. You can obtain the researchers' data, conduct your own analysis, and then submit a comment to the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science in which you document the flaws in the study.
This is not an article providing a proof in a math journal. Statistical inference is used, and so Type I and Type II errors are in play. Authors use terms like "suggest" and "appear" in recognition that those errors can occur.
The study was funded by the Wellcome Trust (a UK-based biomedical charity) and the NIH. Do you have any evidence that either organization tries to "buy" research outcomes?
Personally I'm not interested in conspiracy theories, and I don't have the time nor interest in drilling down through all the studies, evidence or un or scientific findings to come up with the Holy Grail of where Lyme came from, how it got there, etc. I have relied on those who know more than I because they have lived it, where it is most frequently believed by the largest number of people to have originated and how/why, etc.
It's good enough for me, and it's not some wild azzed throw out a question about DDT and Lyme hoping someone will bite on it, like the Op posted about at the thread opening.
So, conclusions as to the origin of Lyme disease should be based on public opinion rather than scientific evidence? How do you square that statement with your statement that "
BTW, here are some examples of public opinion according to 25 Unbelievable Things Americans Believe.
"More than half of Americans suspect that a secretive global elite is trying to create a New World Order."
"More than three quarters of Americans believe there are indisputable evidences that aliens have already visited our planet."
Steve
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