CDsdad
Platinum Member
Hey guys, I'm still offshore and haven't been able to catch up with this thread in a while. I have found out some interesting things in the past week or so. I will clarify all my remarks beforehand as personal opinion from what I have been TOLD, not what I know as fact. I believe my sources are pretty good, and some of what I know has been in the media, but nobody right now has the whole truth, in my opinion. I'm not trying to spread gossip. I just hope I can help folks understand some of this. And I'm not trying to defend or indemnify anyone.
MarkV: I understand where you are coming from. The problem for being prepared for this type of catastrophe was that it had never happened before. When the Ixtoc blew out off Mexico in 1979, it spilled 140 million bbls or so, but that was on the continental shelf, much shallower water, easier to deal with, and the oil can dissipate better on surface (that's why you are hearing about "plumes" in the media), and the Mexican government doesn't care anyway. I'm sure the major oil companies have looked at this scenario before. And I know people will think I'm crazy, but BP has actually reacted faster than I thought they would. They are on their 3rd and 4th solutions and I have it from good sources that they have engineers at every BP office around the world looking at any method that could be used.
There is nothing good in this situation. But it could be worse. If this leak had been caused by a company smaller than a MAJOR, multi-billion dollar oil company, the government would be in control now. No company smaller has the money to do what BP has done so far. And believe this, there are (compared to the BPs, Shells, and Exxons) small companies operating in deepwater. I'm glad it wasn't one of these companies. The US government wouldn't have a clue where to start to cap this leak.
At 5000', seawater exerts 2197 psi. Average seawater weight in the Gulf is 8.45 to 8.5 pounds per gallon. The math is simple: 8.45 ppg x .052(a pressure constant) x 5000' (roughly the water depth in true vertical depth) and this equation works for any column of fluid if you know the weight of the fluid and the TVD(true vertical depth). Anyway, this is so everybody knows where I'm coming from. I heard this well was roughly 19000', I may be wrong. I do know they were using a 14.2 pound per gallon (ppg) drilling fluid. I will assume BP was .5 ppg overbalanced using this fluid, as that is kind of standard for where they were at operationally in the well. If that is true, it means pore pressure in the resevoir or somewhere in the well was close to 13500 psi at about 19000'. Once the riser was displaced from 14.2 ppg mud to seawater, effective hydrostatic pressure was only around 12000 psi. The cement plugs obviously didn't hold, the BOPs failed, there is a blowout, the rig burns and sinks, and the well is exerting upward pressure of over 10000 psi at the seafloor. The 10000 psi is a SWAG estimate on my account with the limited information I have, but hopefully some folks can now see what BP is dealing with.
Maybe a detonation 1500' inside the wellbore would work. The problem is, nobody on earth knows. The top kill didn't work, again in my opinion, because there is no way to control pressure at the seafloor, and I don't think it is possible to generate enough fluid velocity to outpump the well when the fluid you are pumping is also leaking away at 5000'. I'm also afraid the cut and cap method will have limited success, although it may work if it doesn't freeze up and they can get enough pressure relief through the top to allow any kind of seal around the BOP stack. I'm praying it works. Realistically, I think one of two things will happen. Either reservoir pressure will drop from depletion and the leak will slow significantly allowing BP to gain some control, or it'll take a relief well. Not to be pessimistic, but I believe it will be the latter
I also found out who some of the supervisors on the rig were. I have worked with one of the supervisors that has had his name mentioned. All I will say is I'm glad I wasn't there.
As far as battery and BOP failures, the explosion MAY have had some effect on the failure. That is not my area of expertise, but I know enough to know there should have been redundant backups. But if all were damaged??? I don't understand why the remote shut-in didn't work. That part doesn't look right to me.
Not to try to get sympathy with the next statement, but the Gulf of Mexico is effectively shut down to drilling in water depths over 500'. I know of over 10 rigs that have shut down in the past 10 days with more to come. I'm on one of them. We'll finish securing this well in the next 72 hours, and then we're gone. My family will be fine. I know how to work and will do something, I'm not worried, and at the time I'm still employed, so I'm counting my blessings. Lots of people in the oil, fishing, and tourism industries don't know anything else, though. I feel for these people.
Another side effect of this won't be felt for a while. Unless the world economies totally tank, domestic fuel prices should start to rise with the reduction in drilling and exploration. I predict before November. That prediction and $2 will get you a cup of coffee. But, if a hurricane hits the Gulf, well, I hope I'm wrong.
Once again, please remember those that perished and their families as well as those who are suffering livelihood losses. Remember the folks working to stop the leak and pray for a resolution. Thanks to everyone who's spoken a kind word and has tried to understand what's happening.
MarkV: I understand where you are coming from. The problem for being prepared for this type of catastrophe was that it had never happened before. When the Ixtoc blew out off Mexico in 1979, it spilled 140 million bbls or so, but that was on the continental shelf, much shallower water, easier to deal with, and the oil can dissipate better on surface (that's why you are hearing about "plumes" in the media), and the Mexican government doesn't care anyway. I'm sure the major oil companies have looked at this scenario before. And I know people will think I'm crazy, but BP has actually reacted faster than I thought they would. They are on their 3rd and 4th solutions and I have it from good sources that they have engineers at every BP office around the world looking at any method that could be used.
There is nothing good in this situation. But it could be worse. If this leak had been caused by a company smaller than a MAJOR, multi-billion dollar oil company, the government would be in control now. No company smaller has the money to do what BP has done so far. And believe this, there are (compared to the BPs, Shells, and Exxons) small companies operating in deepwater. I'm glad it wasn't one of these companies. The US government wouldn't have a clue where to start to cap this leak.
At 5000', seawater exerts 2197 psi. Average seawater weight in the Gulf is 8.45 to 8.5 pounds per gallon. The math is simple: 8.45 ppg x .052(a pressure constant) x 5000' (roughly the water depth in true vertical depth) and this equation works for any column of fluid if you know the weight of the fluid and the TVD(true vertical depth). Anyway, this is so everybody knows where I'm coming from. I heard this well was roughly 19000', I may be wrong. I do know they were using a 14.2 pound per gallon (ppg) drilling fluid. I will assume BP was .5 ppg overbalanced using this fluid, as that is kind of standard for where they were at operationally in the well. If that is true, it means pore pressure in the resevoir or somewhere in the well was close to 13500 psi at about 19000'. Once the riser was displaced from 14.2 ppg mud to seawater, effective hydrostatic pressure was only around 12000 psi. The cement plugs obviously didn't hold, the BOPs failed, there is a blowout, the rig burns and sinks, and the well is exerting upward pressure of over 10000 psi at the seafloor. The 10000 psi is a SWAG estimate on my account with the limited information I have, but hopefully some folks can now see what BP is dealing with.
Maybe a detonation 1500' inside the wellbore would work. The problem is, nobody on earth knows. The top kill didn't work, again in my opinion, because there is no way to control pressure at the seafloor, and I don't think it is possible to generate enough fluid velocity to outpump the well when the fluid you are pumping is also leaking away at 5000'. I'm also afraid the cut and cap method will have limited success, although it may work if it doesn't freeze up and they can get enough pressure relief through the top to allow any kind of seal around the BOP stack. I'm praying it works. Realistically, I think one of two things will happen. Either reservoir pressure will drop from depletion and the leak will slow significantly allowing BP to gain some control, or it'll take a relief well. Not to be pessimistic, but I believe it will be the latter
I also found out who some of the supervisors on the rig were. I have worked with one of the supervisors that has had his name mentioned. All I will say is I'm glad I wasn't there.
As far as battery and BOP failures, the explosion MAY have had some effect on the failure. That is not my area of expertise, but I know enough to know there should have been redundant backups. But if all were damaged??? I don't understand why the remote shut-in didn't work. That part doesn't look right to me.
Not to try to get sympathy with the next statement, but the Gulf of Mexico is effectively shut down to drilling in water depths over 500'. I know of over 10 rigs that have shut down in the past 10 days with more to come. I'm on one of them. We'll finish securing this well in the next 72 hours, and then we're gone. My family will be fine. I know how to work and will do something, I'm not worried, and at the time I'm still employed, so I'm counting my blessings. Lots of people in the oil, fishing, and tourism industries don't know anything else, though. I feel for these people.
Another side effect of this won't be felt for a while. Unless the world economies totally tank, domestic fuel prices should start to rise with the reduction in drilling and exploration. I predict before November. That prediction and $2 will get you a cup of coffee. But, if a hurricane hits the Gulf, well, I hope I'm wrong.
Once again, please remember those that perished and their families as well as those who are suffering livelihood losses. Remember the folks working to stop the leak and pray for a resolution. Thanks to everyone who's spoken a kind word and has tried to understand what's happening.
Dave
