Market Share? Who's next after the Big 3?

[MDM]

Who is next in line in market share after the Big 3 as far as compacts are concerned? Judging from the number of posts on TBN, it looks like Kioti, then Mahindra. Anyone have an opinion or facts on this? I don't want to buy from a manufacturer that will not be around in 20 years.

Thanks.

 

[Farmwithjunk]

Who is next in line in market share after the Big 3 as far as compacts are concerned? Judging from the number of posts on TBN, it looks like Kioti, then Mahindra. Anyone have an opinion or facts on this? I don't want to buy from a manufacturer that will not be around in 20 years.

Thanks.

That "Big 3" isn't top dawg when you talk "tractors" in general. Just in the compact field.

AGCO, in particular, their Massey Ferguson line sells more TRACTORS worldwide than anyone. So, I'd say MF looks to be a major player.

The compact tractor market is only a percentage (albiet a large chunk) of total sales numbers for any of the majors. Back in the 1930's throught the 1970's, International Harvester was the big dog. They built, IMHO, the first "compact tractor" line that was WILDLY SUCCESSFUL worldwide with the Cub line. Their Cub Cadet line was second to none in the lawn market. Their AG product line was #1 until 1958 when John Deere moved them out of the leader's role. IH held a strong #2 until the late 70's.

Now they're gone.... They live on in name only for the most part. Divisions of the former giant were bought and sectioned up. Case-IH/ Case-NH/ Fiat/ (Next new name forthcoming) now own the AG line. MTD has Cub Cadet, The McCormick name is back, so is FarmAll. But it isn't "IH".

My point? Just because a certain manufacturer is #1, #2, #100, or #1,000,000 now, that in itself isn't a lock for their even being still in exsistance 20 years from now.

 

[MDM]

Thanks for putting things into perspective. I hadn't thought of it that way. I guess its an irrelevant question.

 

[art]

THe big three in compacts doesn't really enter into the big picture with all tractors. When we look at lines to take on we look at the companies dedication to the field they are building in for longeviety of the product line.

 

[slowrev]

Mahindra has been around for a long time. They were making tractors for IH for some years and still make tractors that some parts will interchange with some models of IH tractors. B424, B444, etc....

 

[Bob_Skurka]

Who is next in line in market share after the Big 3 as far as compacts are concerned? Judging from the number of posts on TBN, it looks like Kioti, then Mahindra. Anyone have an opinion or facts on this? I don't want to buy from a manufacturer that will not be around in 20 years.

Thanks.

This was discussed before but nobody had any real proof. Farmwithjunk makes some good points about transitions.

Mahindra claims to be #4 and I know that Kubota watches Mahindra and I know that the dealers discuss Mahindra at the dealer meetings. I think it is safe to say that based on some sales number that have been posted by Mahindra that they are probably #4. I've heard sales numbers (from Mahindra) ranging from 12,000 to 15,000 units per year in North America.

Case/Farmall (a division of Case-New Holland), Massey Ferguson and Cub Cadet are probably 5, 6 and 7 or perhaps 5, 7 and 6. But sales numbers for Cub are harder to find because they make some tractors themselves and import some others from both Japan and Korea (depending on the model) and there is no good data that I have seen to separate out the 5000 to 8000 series CUTs from their garden tractor sales. Cub Cadet used to be a high quality brand, many folks have the belief that it has come down in quality since it was taken over by MTD. Massey Ferguson is a big player in the world market and their CUTs are only a small part of their business. They are around for long haul and nobody can doubt that. Case-New Holland, a division of Fiat, is the largest player in farm equipment world wide and also makes Kobelco and Case construction equipment they market nearly identical CUTs as Case/Farmall and New Holland.

#7 is likely to be Kioti. They had posted some numbers in 2004(?) claiming sales of something like 3000 or 3500 tractors per year. Assuming above industry growth rates (to give them the benefit of the doubt) would have their sales at roughly 4500 to maybe 5000 units.

The one that NOBODY has any sales numbers for, that could EASILY change these rankings is Jinma. Jinma is sold under so many different brands, and imported by so many different importers, that it is nearly impossible to know where they are in sales. But it is not unreasonable to assume that Jinma could easy be #6, pushing Massy, Cub and Kioti down one notch each. Heck it might be possible that Jinma might even be #5.

 

[Farmwithjunk]

This was discussed before but nobody had any real proof.

Mahindra claims to be #4 and I know that Kubota watches Mahindra and I know that the dealers discuss Mahindra at the dealer meetings. I think it is safe to say that based on some sales number that have been posted by Mahindra that they are probably #4. I've heard sales numbers (from Mahindra) ranging from 12,000 to 15,000 units per year in North America.

Case/Farmall (a division of Case-New Holland), Massey Ferguson and Cub Cadet are probably 5, 6 and 7 or perhaps 5, 7 and 6. But sales numbers for Cub are harder to find because they make some tractors themselves and import some others from both Japan and Korea (depending on the model) and there is no good data that I have seen to separate out the 5000 to 8000 series CUTs from their garden tractor sales.

#7 is likely to be Kioti. They had posted some numbers in 2004(?) claiming sales of something like 3000 or 3500 tractors per year. Assuming above industry growth rates (to give them the benefit of the doubt) would have their sales at roughly 4500 to maybe 5000 units.

The one that NOBODY has any sales numbers for, that could EASILY change these rankings is Jinma. Jinma is sold under so many different brands, and imported by so many different importers, that it is nearly impossible to know where they are in sales. But it is not unreasonable to assume that Jinma could easy be #6, pushing Massy, Cub and Kioti down one notch each. Heck it might be possible that Jinma might even be #5.

All reasonable "estimates". But to take it one step further, based on original line of questioning, who do you suppose (from that list) will be "around" in 20 years, and still able to furnish parts/service? (Or have/has a product that will be here in 20 years to service or sell parts for)

Grasp the lid of Pandora's Box and open please

 

[Nissan197]

All I know is my local Kioti dealer has all of his left over Kioti's parked in the rear of his business and is now carrying Mahindra. Don't know if he was having problems with the Kioti line or if it was a better business move to go with Mahindra. They all look nice to me...

 

[Farmwithjunk]

All I know is my local Kioti dealer has all of his left over Kioti's parked in the rear of his business and is now carrying Mahindra. Don't know if he was having problems with the Kioti line or if it was a better business move to go with Mahindra. They all look nice to me...

Kioti dealer not far from here has all the orange to the back of HIS lot also. Blue FarmTrac lining the front row now.

 

[Bob_Skurka]

All reasonable "estimates". But to take it one step further, based on original line of questioning, who do you suppose (from that list) will be "around" in 20 years, and still able to furnish parts/service? (Or have/has a product that will be here in 20 years to service or sell parts for)

Grasp the lid of Pandora's Box and open please

Well if you look at the HISTORY of things then I'd say any ESTABLISHED brand will be around for parts in the future. Now define "established" and we can begin to argue.

Ford became Ford/New Holland which became New Holland which became Case-New Holland. But the dealerships still sell parts for 50 year old Ford tractors. So the brand carries on because it merged/sold/survived.

International Cub/Farmall has essentially died, and now Farmall is part of the Case/New Holland family . . . so the original brand is an "orphan" brand but it has such a strong collector base, with clubs just for the old IH Cubs and the Farmall tractors that you can get reproduction parts and restoration help for them.

Will any of the new brands have that collector base? Will they merge into some other company like AGCO which operates about a dozen brands and still offers at least some support for some of the OLD Massey-Ferguson tractors? That is the guess or gamble that people will have to take. I'd suggest that ANY specific MODEL that is very popular will have parts support for 50 years, no matter what happens to the brand. But the models that 'qualify' for that status today are probably tractors like the New Holland TC30 or the John Deere 790 and 990. Those are basic tractor but they have stood the test of time and continue to sell. I personally don't like them, I think there are many better tractors, but I doubt that any brand that sells only a few thousand tractors a year is going to have parts support for 25 years on anything they sell today, while something like a TC30 or a 790 probably sells as many specific units as some brands sell all their models combined.

JUST MY GUESS. JUST MY OPINION. It has nothing to do with what brands will survive for 20 plus years. But based on history, your best bet is to buy a very popular MODEL if you want parts support for that MODEL when it becomes an antique.