Student Loan Debt?

[jyoutz]

According to that chart, there's only about a 0.75% reduction in labor force participation.

This is a better measure of how the national economy is doing.

 

[kenmbz]

I know at least a dozen middle managers who are out of work.
Most people I talk to have not had real raises in many years.
Tech sector in the North East is really bad.

However, fast food and low end jobs have been hiring by the thousands.

I know people who had high paying jobs who took low paying jobs when their unemployment ran out.

30% + inflation with 10% increase means your $ is worth less.

GDP up based on oil/gas imports to Europe to cover the missing Russian supply.
Does not mean more jobs.

Interest rates are probably where they should be and were artificially low for years.

However, Commercial real estate is hurting big time and most hard hit cities will see trillions in defaults late 2024 into 2025.
Anyone want a cheap office building?

We are hoping colleges will start cutting better deals as enrollments are slightly down.

 

[jyoutz]

I know at least a dozen middle managers who are out of work.
Most people I talk to have not had real raises in many years.
Tech sector in the North East is really bad.

However, fast food and low end jobs have been hiring by the thousands.

I know people who had high paying jobs who took low paying jobs when their unemployment ran out.

30% + inflation with 10% increase means your $ is worth less.

GDP up based on oil/gas imports to Europe to cover the missing Russian supply.
Does not mean more jobs.

Interest rates are probably where they should be and were artificially low for years.

However, Commercial real estate is hurting big time and most hard hit cities will see trillions in defaults late 2024 into 2025.
Anyone want a cheap office building?

We are hoping colleges will start cutting better deals as enrollments are slightly down.

Commercial office real estate is headed for a real crash. It is overbuilt relative to how people work today. I know it’s not evenly distributed in the country, but oil and gas is a significant employer in my state and many other places.

 

[MoKelly]

Indiana only started selling beer and liquor in grocery stores maybe 10 years ago so I’m still a little bit behind the curve there

Well, Missouri has been home of Anheuser-Busch since 1852 so - our beer selling rules are not exactly stringent.

Florida allows beer in grocery stores but spirits are sold in a separate store located right next to the grocery store.

 

[lilranch2001]

Well, Missouri has been home of Anheuser-Busch since 1852 so - our beer selling rules are not exactly stringent.

Florida allows beer in grocery stores but spirits are sold in a separate store located right next to the grocery store.

So….
Anheuser-Busch does still sell beer?!?!?!

 

[MoKelly]

So….
Anheuser-Busch does still sell beer?!?!?!

Believe it or not, AB InBev has 630 different beer brands in the world.

But in US it seems beer is secondary to controversial advertising.

 

[lilranch2001]

Believe it or not, AB InBev has 630 different beer brands in the world.

But in US it seems beer is secondary to controversial advertising.

Yeah, I know I was being a little bit facetious, but they sure did take a hit for a silly advertising gimmick.

I seriously wonder if anybody learned by that bit of stupidity

As a lifelong Budweiser drinker, I haven’t had one since and now, Yingling seems to be my beer of choice

 

[MoKelly]

Yeah, I know I was being a little bit facetious, but they sure did take a hit for a silly advertising gimmick.

I seriously wonder if anybody learned by that bit of stupidity

As a lifelong Budweiser drinker, I haven’t had one since and now, Yingling seems to be my beer of choice

I knew you were joking! Just had to say the # of brands as I find that fascinating.

 

[jyoutz]

Believe it or not, AB InBev has 630 different beer brands in the world.

But in US it seems beer is secondary to controversial advertising.

I never cared for AB beers before their advertising controversy. There are so many great local craft breweries nowadays that actually make beers with flavor.

 

[lilranch2001]

I knew you were joking! Just had to say the # of brands as I find that fascinating.

Yup.
You would think that people that were so smart to build such a company would’ve been smarter than to do such a stupid stunt and piss off the myriad of beer drinkers that they have courted for the last hundred years!

 

[paulsharvey]

Not to distract the political talk...

but, one frustration with all the college expenses; its kinda like medical, but no other service I can think of; It is very hard to get a straight, it costs X amount to get this product. It seems like they will throw dozens of numbers around, like estimated tuition, estimated books/lab fees/misc additional fees. In the end, a college is a service provider, selling a product to willing adults. How about some dang transparency in pricing. Maybe they are worried they will scare people off if they say, $1200 before you ever take a class; it seems better to hit you with 6 random charges at $200 each.

 

[lilranch2001]

Distract away, during the lull in the discussion we began chatting about our fav hoppy beverage!

 

[Torvy]

This is a better measure of how the national economy is doing.

View attachment 848988

No, it's really not. Nominal GDP means little. Real GDP is a measure, but says nothing about the health of the economy. Economists look at the underlying factors. That's why the unemployment rate is meaningless. Why a .75% drop in labor participation is huge when the only reason it is close is because of an increase in government jobs. Numbers alone don't mean much. You need to understand what makes them up. Actual economists know the recent uptick is a paper tiger. The economy looked great right before every major downturn. (At least using metrics that are superficial).

 

[ultrarunner]

I don't know what to tell ya. Unemployment is at historic lows, stock market is at historic highs. We make average wages, our savings and retirement are at all time highs and growing. Our personal net worth has surpassed the pre-pandemic point by about 10%.

S&P500 is up around 27% since December 31, 2020.



View attachment 848964

I’m the the opposite… 2019 was great… all the pieces coming together and unparalleled economic activity in my city with new venues and business vying to move in…

Net worth down about 30% due to dropping Real Estate Value and rents are flat due to rent control and unpaid pandemic rent still protected from foreclosure by law…

Transients which were never ever a issue are daily issues.

My work retirement is not a stellar performer… the company target plan shifted me heavily to bonds…

Construction is scarce and lots of commercial foreclosure on the rise…

Layoffs in tech continue with thousands each week hitting the region hard.

 

[Torvy]

According to that chart, there's only about a 0.75% reduction in labor force participation.

That's actually huge when you realize that it matches the lowest point in 10 years and is only that high because of an artificial increase in economy draining government jobs. You have to look at the underlying reasons, not just a stat that fits a narrative. Get your investments in something stable. It's going to be a wild ride.

 

[jyoutz]

No, it's really not. Nominal GDP means little. Real GDP is a measure, but says nothing about the health of the economy. Economists look at the underlying factors. That's why the unemployment rate is meaningless. Why a .75% drop in labor participation is huge when the only reason it is close is because of an increase in government jobs. Numbers alone don't mean much. You need to understand what makes them up. Actual economists know the recent uptick is a paper tiger. The economy looked great right before every major downturn. (At least using metrics that are superficial).

I guess we will see in the future, but there’s a downturn every couple of decades so eventually this will happen. It still seems that gross production is a more meaningful indicator of a nation’s economic condition than a labor participation rate. That measure tells nothing about why someone isn’t in the workforce, but production is a direct measure of economic activity.

 

[Torvy]

Sorry mate. GDP is just one factor. It's like a stool. You can't just look at one leg and decide it's a good stool.

Here's real GDP since 1929. It almost never goes down. The only time with consecutive years going down was in the early 1930s. GDP is a trailing indicator. It tells you what already happened.

Labor Participation is much more useful than unemployment because unemployment is fickle. If people give up trying for work, unemployment will look better. If people take low paying jobs, unemployment looks better. If people get a PT or temp job, unemployment looks better.

Here's another...real median income. It's been flat. It had been growing steadily for 10 years. Coming out of an artificial downturn, it should have spiked up.

 

[jyoutz]

I’m not going to beat this anymore. All economic activity is up in the mountain states region. We aren’t experiencing bad times and most contractors and tradesmen have more work than they can do. Sales and businesses are busy and real estate is moving. I’m not going to call this bad times. I’ve seen bad times and this isn’t close. I work with people from throughout the nation, and I’m hearing pretty much the same from everyone. I have no doubt that the business cycle will have a downturn sometime in the future. Always has, always will. Always followed by a recovery.

 

[goeduck]

One of the reasons the economy started to pick up recently has to do with the reduction in Federal spending once the US House of Representatives changed hands in 2022 and new spending was cut back. That and higher interest rates made inflation slow down as a result. I would not say it is "booming" now, because it has a LOT of catch up to do since the lull that started in late 2021. It floundered for 2 years, so there is some bounce now. Time will tell.

 

[jyoutz]

One of the reasons the economy started to pick up recently has to do with the reduction in Federal spending once the US House of Representatives changed hands in 2022 and new spending was cut back. That and higher interest rates made inflation slow down as a result. I would not say it is "booming" now, because it has a LOT of catch up to do since the lull that started in late 2021. It floundered for 2 years, so there is some bounce now. Time will tell.

A CR means that the budget remains the same as the prior year. The country is operating on the 2023 budget currently, so that’s status quo, not a cut. There is no 2024 federal budget.