New Tractor Company as if we didn't have enough

[Slowpoke Slim]

The 'dirty-ness' of grid power is a function of the fuel source used by electrical generator(s) for your part of the world/country/state/county — it has nothing to do with the cleanliness of EVs, and it is misleading (or, at the very least, a mistake) to conflate the two.

If your part of the world is dominated by Jurassic-era generators, then sure, your grid electricity will be dirty, and everything that relies on that electricity will be dirty. EV technology in and of itself is 'clean' — certainly much cleaner than anything based on dinosaur juice — but whether or not grid electricity is clean, well, that's a different issue. Analogy: An engine can be designed to run clean. If you give it a good quality fuel, it does indeed run clean. If, however, you feed it poor quality fuel, then it runs dirty. The fault lies not with the engine, rather with the fuel. It is illogical to blame the engine when you should blame the fuel. Likewise it is illogical to blame EVs when you should be blaming grid electricity.

I live in a part of the world that hasn't seen a coal power station in years, and is in the process of phasing out gas. We generated over half of our electricity from solar and wind in 2019, and that fraction has increased every year. Another nearby state is almost totally hydro. In these states going electric is obviously and undeniably "cleaner" than sticking with dino juice. No-one could mount a remotely-serious argument otherwise.

But it wasn't always this way. Twenty years ago we had coal stations producing a fair fraction of base load. Now they are extinct. A nearby state is retiring all of their coal stations because coal simply can't compete on price in the national energy market — solar is so much cheaper. The same story is common everywhere I look. The grid itself has become greener, and is getting greener every single day. It is impossible for a coal power plant to even get planning permission any more, let alone financing. So if you buy an EV today, and charge it from the grid, every single day you own it the fuel will just get greener and greener.

It's not an "illusion". It's just math and market forces.

Please don't think that just because dinosaurs still roam the streets in your neck of the woods, that they do so everywhere else in the world.

It won't be that long before the only place you can find diesel will be in a museum.

PS: It took 13 years for New York City to transition from >95% horse-drawn buggies to >95% ICE cars. 13. Folks under about 70 years of age that assert "it won't happen in my lifetime" might want to re-calibrate their opinion based on the lessons of history.

Now you're just selectively picking out tiny sound bites out of what I said, just so you can pick an argument.

You came here to argue. I did not.

Reread ALL of what I said. Don't just pick out one selective phrase so you can build an argument against it.

Most of the US power grid is still run off of coal powered plants. Doesn't matter how you "feel" about that. It's a fact. Sure, you can hand select certain areas of the country that *may* not be. But I'm talking about the entire US grid as a whole. And just because you see a cool little boutique power plant in your area, doesn't mean that The Grid isn't pulling power from one or even several states away. As an example, Palo Verde nuclear power plant in AZ sends almost all of it's electrical capacity to California. The coal fired plants in MT and ND also ship their power several states away (and specifically MT sends power to CA, while ND is sending power to MN-Twin Cities) for use in "somebody elses" neighborhood. We actually had rolling blackouts here in ND when the Texas grid went into overload, because of all the power we suddenly had to start sending down to TX. That's how the National Grid works. My take is you generally have NO IDEA where that power is coming from when you hook your electric "whatever" up to an outlet at your house (if you're hooked to The Grid at all), or some off site charging station.

And strip mining the planet for these "rare earth metals" that you claim are common and easy to mine, is going to do a number on the planet you're trying to save. Because that's how they're mining for metals now adays. They strip mine for it because it's cheaper to do so. Ever been to a strip mine? I have, both in the US and in 3rd world countries. And 3rd world countries LOVE to strip mine, because it puts fast cash in their pockets NOW, vs whatever climate and habitat destruction they may have to answer for down the road later.

I am fully prepared to "agree to disagree" with you. You seem to not be able to do that. Fine. But I'm done with this childish "tit-for-tat" that you seem to have preset in your mind.

 

[tradosaurus]

I'm all for solar power when feasible but any other "green" energy is just extending the tail pipe to the coal fired power plant.

 

[PuffyC]

Interesting article about lithium mining in Nevada: Nevada lithium mine kicks off a new era of Western extraction

Once opened, the mine will run 24x7 for an estimated 40 years.

 

[timbrr]

Most of the US power grid is still run off of coal powered plants. Doesn't matter how you "feel" about that. It's a fact. Sure, you can hand select certain areas of the country that *may* not be. But I'm talking about the entire US grid as a whole.

Here is data from your own government:

EIA expects U.S. electricity generation from renewables to soon surpass nuclear and coal - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

www.eia.gov

In the latest long-term projections, the U.S Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects electricity generation from renewable sources such as wind and solar to surpass nuclear and coal by 2021 and to surpass natural gas in 2045. In the Annual Energy Outlook 2020 (AEO2020) Reference case, the share of renewables in the U.S. electricity generation mix increases from 19% in 2019 to 38% in 2050.

Update:

Less electricity was generated by coal than nuclear in the United States in 2020 - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

www.eia.gov

So, coal fired generation fell 61% in the 12 years from 2008 to 2020. -61% in 12 years.

I hope I've presented the reality of the situation clearly enough. By the end of 2020 coal was responsible for only 19% of total US electricity production, and that number is falling fast. Your strongly-held opinions of the role coal plays in electricity production seem to be at least a few decades out of date and in need of refreshing.

The US grid has been getting greener and cleaner for a couple of decades now.

 

[acraiger]

One thing about solar panels, is they require silver. Right now the silver price is extremely manipulated way below what it should be. When our dollar crashes, and silver is at the price it should be, solar panels are going to sky rocket. On another note, I've heard their is another energy source that is being developed that will be dirt cheap, I think it is similar to nuclear but much safer.

 

[timbrr]

One thing about solar panels, is they require silver. Right now the silver price is extremely manipulated way below what it should be. When our dollar crashes, and silver is at the price it should be, solar panels are going to sky rocket.

While solar panel production has been absolutely exploding, total silver consumption has barely moved. The amount of physical silver in each panel has been roughly halving every 12 years as alternatives have gone into production. That trend is set to continue.

When the US currency eventually collapses even if the price of silver "goes to the moon", the price of PV panels will not go with it. Aluminium-based panels will cap the price at close to where they are now anyway. This from back in 2015:

Natcore swaps silver for aluminum in solar cells

In what is expected to bring "substantial" cost savings to the industry, Natcore technology Inc. says it has successfully swapped silver for aluminum in its solar cells. A provisional patent application will now be filed.

www.pv-magazine.com

Long story short: Silver is not required for PV panel production, but it is highly desirable. It is entirely possibly to make PV panels using no silver at all. Companies are already commercialising the tech. If the silver price "goes to the moon" the share prices of Aluminium-based PV panel manufacturers will be the ones hitching a ride, not panel prices. So, no, a currency crisis / silver shortage would not stop solar electricity from dominating in the long run.

 

[LouNY]

Solar and wind power are over hyped bit players in the long term energy provider scheme of things.
We are seeing a lot of "solar farms" in my area now, they are heavily subsidized facilities making some pretty outlandish claims.
They are devastating large areas of productive farm ground here. If this is a desirable thing it should be done using non tillable ground.
There will be considerable non productive periods of time in this area which will leave voids in production which will have to be covered by more conventional generation methods which will be made more expensive because of the cyclic and not consistence power demands and often long term when the power demand will be the highest, ie. blizzard conditions, or just extreme cold and snow.
Who is going to clean all these panels to maintain efficiency rain certainly will not be effective in this regard.
And then who is going to clean up the mess when the fiscal desirability of these systems is gone for the owners.

 

[PuffyC]

People throw around “subsidized” as if it’s evidence that there’s some sort of scam going on, or that we shouldn’t be doing it because it’s economically unviable. Is there that much complaining about the trillions we spend subsidizing oil and coal, or corn and soybean farming? Subsidies, like taxes, are just ways a government can encourage or discourage activities (hopefully) to the benefit of citizens. It’s not some evil conspiracy to screw the public.

 

[5030]

Solar and wind power are over hyped bit players in the long term energy provider scheme of things.
We are seeing a lot of "solar farms" in my area now, they are heavily subsidized facilities making some pretty outlandish claims.
They are devastating large areas of productive farm ground here. If this is a desirable thing it should be done using non tillable ground.
There will be considerable non productive periods of time in this area which will leave voids in production which will have to be covered by more conventional generation methods which will be made more expensive because of the cyclic and not consistence power demands and often long term when the power demand will be the highest, ie. blizzard conditions, or just extreme cold and snow.
Who is going to clean all these panels to maintain efficiency rain certainly will not be effective in this regard.
And then who is going to clean up the mess when the fiscal desirability of these systems is gone for the owners.

Very good post Lou. We have the same scenario happening here. I get a charge out of how the solar proponents bill them as 'solar farms'. They ain't farms at all. They are INDUSTRIAL installations with a finite lifespan and huge remediation costs and they all seem to gravitate to prime tillable land for some reason. Farmers jump on it because the ground rent is usually 2 times per acre per year of what normal ground rent is but what the landowners don't realize is, most of the solar 'farms' projects name the landholder as the final agent for decomissioning and you cannot just scrap panels. You can scrap the superstructures but the panels are hazardous waste and must be disposed of in a certified landfill and it ain't a cheap date. Based on a 20 year useful lifespan, the landowner is 'on the hook' for way more than the made.

Solar power, especially sited on tillable ground is a joke on everyone involved. We don't allow it here by ordinance.

 

[MiserableOldFart]

In a decade compact diesel tractors will likely no longer be made. Electrics will take over the under 70 HP market. Not as sure with the really big ag tractors but people not too far in the future will laugh at us with our five gallon can hoisting and much of the other things we do all the time to keep these machines running. You all can laugh now, and it's likely that some of the diesels will be around 50 or more years from now, mainly because of the plenitude of parts from junked tractors.
EVs are the future of the American highway, and ETs are the future of compact tractors, and not distant future, either. No clutches, no real transmissions - yeah, people will be nostalgic for all that stuff that makes noise, and breaks..