Gasoline Tractors are they coming Back ?

[sunandsand]

Price of fuel . . . lots of "distortions" in the marketplace. Europe taxes gasoline ferociously, diesel somewhat less so, therefore more diesel cars/light trucks in Euroland than the USA. No small imported pickup trucks (diesel or gas) here because of a 25% tax on them in retaliation for taxes there on imported chicken parts from us - look up "chicken tax". Prices go up when there's a storm in the gulf, go up when the Iranians shoot at a tanker, and have been going down lately because of the Covid lockdowns in China, which has reduced worldwide demand for oil. OPEC also greatly affects the price of oil because they are a cartel and can hold the prices high so they make more money. "Start drilling" doesn't happen overnight, there's LONG lead time for drilling equipment and then difficulties in hiring help and housing them in remote places where oil might be found. Oil rigs can't be turned on and off like a light switch. We also have not built a new refinery in the US in 45 years! and some of this stuff is getting old and tired.

There are a LOT of moving parts in fuel prices, and a lot of unpredictable things can happen. (Remember Dick Cheney's famous "unknown unknowns".) There ARE some conspiracies to keep prices high (OPEC is a good example), but there is also plenty of stupidity, wrong information, politics, profit grabbing, supply chain problems and more, all of which contribute to instability and uncertainty in the price of whatever we buy for fuel.

As to diesel vs. gas vs. electric, each one fills a different niche, no single one can do everything. On the spectrum of which one pollutes worst, electric powered by solar cells is the best (and of course, there's quite a bit of industrial pollution in solar cell and lithium battery production), the worst is tankers and freighters running bunker C which is really nasty stuff and makes a significant amount of pollution worldwide - but it is out of sight and out of mind because it is way out at sea.

There is no free lunch - we have to try to use the least worst alternative for each application.

Old Chinese curse - "May you live in interesting times." We do.

Best Regards,

Mike/Florida

(Diesel tractor, gas cars/motorcycles/airplane, maybe an electric car in the near future - we'll see. Solar cells on the roof - coming soon.)

 

[MossRoad]

....these large gas engines just don't make any sense if you haul often.

And there you have it. Most people with pickups don't haul often. Just as your computer CPU is 99% idle 99% of the time, most pickup trucks are not hauling a load 99% of the time.

Gas engines in pickup trucks make more economic sense to most people that own pickup trucks.

 

[MossRoad]

I don't know what gas tractor (s) your talking about, however, no gas tractor will outlast a good diesel tractor period!!

Yeah, all those Ford 8Ns really suck. Too bad there aren't any more around....

 

[Hay Dude]

And there you have it. Most people with pickups don't haul often. Just as your computer CPU is 99% idle 99% of the time, most pickup trucks are not hauling a load 99% of the time.

Gas engines in pickup trucks make more economic sense to most people that own pickup trucks.

They do, but don’t eliminate my choice of engine/truck if I use it for serious hauling often. Make a poser truck and make a serious truck.

 

[MossRoad]

They do, but don’t eliminate my choice of engine/truck if I use it for serious hauling often. Make a poser truck and make a serious truck.

Yep. That's definitely an issue.

 

[RandR10]

I have a 1959 M-F 50 with a Z134 continental gasoline engine 4 cylinder 34 HP, & I put in a electronic ignition it so has cut the need for tune ups , & replacement of spark plug last twice as long ! & it does consume way more fuel than my 2018 M-F 1526 with a 3 cylinder Iseki diesel 25 HP , & it weighs over 1,000 lbs. less ! Of course you really can't compare the two ! But You & some others did get what the hypothetical thread was about , If you needed to buy a new tractor today would you buy a gasoline tractor over a diesel if it where comparable ? & a E tractor is just not a option as of yet !

I absolutely would, especially given how the newer diesels have become increasingly expensive to maintain. I did in fact choose a gas truck over a diesel. It all depends on the use case too. Work truck, day in, day out, lots of mileage per year, hauling heavy and towing = diesel. Personal vehicle, occasional towing and trips to the supply house for diy projects = gas (my current situation). I simply chose my most recent tractor because an equivalent gasser wasn't available. I am quite happy with it though. Starts a little hard when it's cold, but I live in NC, so not a huge issue for me.

 

[LiveTVTD]

Price of fuel . . . lots of "distortions" in the marketplace....

There are a LOT of moving parts in fuel prices, and a lot of unpredictable things can happen. ...

Thank you for an insightful post! People generally don't understand the energy industries and do not recognize the "moving parts" at play. Starting in the second week of January 2021 Saudi Arabia pulled back on oil exports to the US which hurt because that represented a reduction in light sweet crude. That's the stuff best suited for gasoline production and translated into higher gas prices. Various disruptions since then (most notably the war with Russia) have resulted in much less LSC.

Oil companies can still make gasoline from the dirty stuff we have in abundance and the really dirty oil from Canada but it is expensive and the profit margin is slim. However, heavier oils are still pretty good for making diesel. So the strategy in US refineries shifted to producing as little gasoline as possible (or "reasonable" but that is a longer explanation) and shifted to diesel production. Of course that led to a whole lot more diesel being produced than we need. So why didn't the price fall? Because at the same time we identified overseas markets for diesel and started selling as much of it as we can - leading to record setting profits. Late last spring we were exporting 2M barrels of diesel to Brazil per day!

But why would oil companies do this knowing that we need more gas? It's easy. They don't care much. They are in the business of making money and unfortunately their share holders enforce that vigorously! Imagine an oil exec at a table of share holders and then think about who you would send to that table to tell them to have mercy on the public and keep more diesel and produce more gas? Take all the time you like. There is nobody. Share holders are in the drivers seat and they are too big a bloc to overpower.

As for gas vs. diesel? I don't see gas coming back. It won't sell in California and soon other places without lots of emission equipment. I do see a bright future for EV tractors but we are not quite there yet. I am converting an old '46 Gibson D to electric and enjoying the project. The ability to charge via solar and use the tractor itself as part of my solar battery bank when it is not in use is such a huge bonus! Not to mention very inexpensive fuel. Doing that with a golf cart and Gem car too. HOWEVER: Current battery chemistry has disadvantages already noted (big and heavy or expensive and with temperature sensitivities) plus a fairly low energy content. There are changes coming fast (look up lithium-sulphur and others that already work but have to get past production hurdles). This will solve finicky charge profiles, temperature sensitivities, most fire risk, weight, bulk, and more. BUT it isn't here yet. I expect in about 3 years even though some are suggesting sooner. So I don't begrudge anyone who is not putting faith in EV tractors yet. Too soon.

As for reliability? Right now I lay my money on diesel. Because of the rigors it has to withstand in the first place, these engines are rugged. I do not put faith in many modern gas engines partly because of the complexity and partly because they simply don't build them like they used to. EV tractors could be remarkably reliable as long as they don't go cheap on the electronic parts and they weatherproof it all. The track record in cars is really good! But if they don't use milspec components and treat the unit like it's going to be in the barn all the time then there will only be trouble. As soon as you see compact tractors with touch screens exposed, you should be thinking of your wallet wide open on a windy day. My conversion does not have any more electronics than it needs. For skeptics of electronics in general I will say that the whole drive systems of electric cars are amazingly rugged and if it was not for bloated software and components that need to be in a "safe" cabin I would not hesitate at all to see these in tractors. I think we will see trashy electric tractors from manufacturers who want to play cheap. Those should be avoided at all costs but the possibilities for very good and reliable implementations will be there within a few years.

 

[jjeff]

Well if folks are going to talk about why diesel is more than gas what about why def has more than doubled in 5 yrs? I believe there's only a states sales tax on it?

 

[Indian Territory]

I am not a conspiracy theorist, but let's face it, diesel is in the public eye these days. Our current government would love to do away with it completely. If they somehow create an environment artificially that keeps fuel prices high, perhaps it will give the industry more incentive to start moving away from diesel. At least, that's the plan. And it seems to be working, with Cummins developing a gasoline version of their popular 6.7L engine, Ford dropping two new gas engines in the last 24 months, and semi-truck manufacturers showing off hydrogen fuel cell and electric options to fleets. I would say it's only a matter of time until ag equipment follows suit.

I would like to note that I do not personally agree with the way things are going. I'm just pointing out how it is. This current administration sees environmental issues as their key to staying in power. All they have to do is convince folks there is a problem, and then present themselves as the solution to that problem.

This makes me nervous. I hope you’re wrong, but fear you’re right.

 

[LiveTVTD]

Well if folks are going to talk about why diesel is more than gas what about why def has more than doubled in 5 yrs? I believe there's only a states sales tax on it?

Great question!

I always say, "Learn how things work and you'll be better for it." It's easy to believe in the simple answers, the fairy tales, and what you *want* to believe. Those are fine IF they coincide with the way things really work. But if they don't, the ultimate end is your own disappointment (at least) or increased cost (at near worst).

Here is a pretty good summary of the cost of DEF and why we are being hammered. I chose this one because it lends insight into how "not-so-simple" many things are.

DEF Pricing - Factors That Impact the Rise & Fall of the Market - SCL

DEF Pricing is the result of fluctuations in the cost of raw materials such as urea that impact distributors and ultimately consumers.

www.sclubricants.com