I've seen the claim made that in order to justify the current levels of spending on AI, the economy would have to see $1.5 trillion in annual profitability gains. If that is done by reducing expenses by reducing employment, it means that 15 million $100k/year jobs would have to be eliminated.
That would have to start soon. The longer it takes, the more jobs would have to be eliminated to justify the spending.
So there are two possible trajectories. One is that the current level of AI spending turns out to not be justified. This would cause a stock market crash -- 80% of the gains in the stock market since ChatGPT was introduced come from companies that are investing in AI. If you take out spending on AI our economy is experiencing negative growth right now.
The other outcome is tens of millions of people losing their jobs, which would also be incredibly disruptive.
I guess it's possible that AI leads to increased production and we're all wealthier. Interestingly though, that's not the way it's being pitched to business leaders.